Tory

🔥This is an incredible result! A quick concession is of course in Hungary’s best interests. If Magyar also has a 2/3 majority (as looks likely) then he’ll have full control to remove Fidesz corruption. Finally- it’s a humiliation for Trump & Putin - and a boost for Ukraine.

Congratulations @MagyarPeterMP on your election victory. This is an historic moment, not only for Hungary, but for European democracy. I look forward to working with you for the security and prosperity of both our countries.

Wes Streeting calls Nigel Farage a "plastic patriot." "That plastic patriot is prepared to fly to Washington... & slag off his own country to American audiences is utterly shameful. We should take his claims to be a patriot with a pinch of salt." #TrevorPhillips #bbclaurak

Just taking a step back to appreciate the strategic double bind Trump is in: - If he gives into Iranian demands, the Democrats will crush him with his own rhetoric, portray him as weak, point out that "gave more money" to Iran than Obama did. The Iranians are holding firm in their demands and refusing to give in to pressure. The Israelis can blow up a deal at any moment, and Trump is clearly too weak to restrain them. - If he escalates he'll just double down on being responsible for sending gas to $6+ dollars a gallon and triggering a global economic depression. The longer the war drags out, the worse it'll be. There's no clear path to victory, and any deal he might be able to put together at a later date is likely to be even less favorable than the one he just refused. He's chosen to resolve this, apparently, by accelerating the negative economic effects of the war without directly attacking Iran. It makes no sense because there's no way out of this trap. This conflict is probably the most egregious unforced foreign policy error in American history.

COVID-19 is not just a story of inflammation. This review argues that it is also a story about what SARS2 does to mitochondria - and how that can turn infection into energy failure, cell injury, and worse oxygenation. This is an important mechanistic review🧵

Evidence is mounting that LC is best described as an acquired mitochondriopathy: Endothelium, skeletal muscle, a vast array of immune cells, likely including cerebral glia, and here: cardiac muscle.

This is staggering… and worrying. A number that should stop everyone in their tracks. Before Covid, the UK spent around £40 billion a year on debt interest. It’s now running at over £110 billion. Around 9p of every £1 the government collects in tax goes straight to debt interest. That’s around £4,000 per household, per year. Not for hospitals. Not for schools. Not for roads. Just the interest on what was already spent. We now spend more on debt interest than on the entire education system. Nearly three times what we spend on defence. More than half of what we spend on the NHS. The increase alone since pre-Covid, over £70 billion, is nearly double the entire defence budget. That’s how much extra we’re paying just to stand still. And it’s about to get worse. Around a quarter of UK government debt is index-linked. That means when inflation rises, the cost of servicing that debt rises automatically. Immediately. The OBR’s own numbers show that every 1% increase in RPI inflation adds around £6 billion to the annual debt interest bill in the same year. If inflation runs 1.5 to 2 percentage points above what was forecast, which is what the OECD, the Bank of England, and multiple independent forecasters are now warning, that’s an extra £9 to £12 billion a year in debt interest alone. Just from the inflation channel. Before you even account for higher gilt yields on new borrowing or potential rate rises. The OBR’s March forecast assumed rate cuts this year. It assumed gilt yields falling. It assumed inflation heading back toward 2%. Every single one of those assumptions has been blown apart by the Iran war. The forecasts the Chancellor is relying on are already obsolete. In 2022-23, when the Ukraine energy shock hit, debt interest spiked to a post-war record of £111.6 billion. We’re now facing a second energy shock from a weaker starting position, with higher base debt, thinner fiscal headroom, and weaker growth. If inflation and yields remain elevated, there’s a plausible scenario where debt interest climbs toward £120 to £130 billion over the next 12 months. At that point, more than 10p in every £1 of tax goes on debt interest. Over £4,500 per household. More than three times the defence budget. Well beyond what we spend on the entire education system. For nothing. The national debt now stands at over £95,000 per household. And the interest on it is quietly becoming the single biggest constraint on everything this country can and can’t do. I have a lot of sympathy for the people in government trying to manage this. There are no easy answers. But I’d have a lot more sympathy if anyone was being honest about the scale of the problem. Because right now, the numbers don’t work. And they didn’t work before the war started.

@ukboomers Hope her son has called her to congratulate her on her well-deserved good fortune. Probably not! Ungrateful brat!

Big news. Janet down the road won £350,000 on the lottery. Donating the lot to a badger welfare league in the Cotswolds. Her son's just got a 35 year mortgage in Slough so the kids are sorted. Janet's off on a world cruise. Won't see her until August. Margaret is furious. 🇬🇧

UK politics has broken a 200 year trend. Here's what happens next

This weekend I’ll be posting charts on; $MSFT $MU $RKLB $SATL $ONDS $SOFI $ASTS $IREN $HIMS $AAOI $HOOD $NVDA $NBIS $PLTR $AMD $AEHR $OSCR $SNDK $AXTI $SIDU Which one you’re most excited for? Let me know in the comments below ⬇️ Also, be sure to have Notifications On, so you don’t miss these charts and future trade ideas from me, here, for FREE, on X.

Musk has so clearly suppressed this post about Orban

🚨 KEN FISHER’S LATEST PORTFOLIO JUST DROPPED $293 billion in positions revealed in the last 24 hours. This is more important than you think: Fisher is one of the largest asset managers in the world who has predicted all major economic crises for years. Here’s what Fisher just did with his portfolio: Bonds: Increased heavily. iShares 7–10Y Treasury ETF: +53.81%. iShares MBS ETF: ~$8.47B position maintained. Corporate bond ETFs: Added (~$2B+ combined exposure). Massive shift into duration. At the same time: Broad equity exposure: Reduced. Interesting part: Financials: Reduced ($1B+ trimmed across positions). Industrials: Cut ($800M+ reduction). Select tech: Slightly reduced in some names. But here’s what stands out: NVIDIA: Increased ($1.2B position). Microsoft: Added ($5.5B position). Alphabet (Google): Increased ($4.3B position). Amazon: Added ($3.8B position). Now the real signal: He’s not going risk-off. Keeping exposure to dominant tech. Moving into bonds. Put it together: He’s preparing for tighter conditions. Positioning defensively while staying selective. For the record, I’ve been studying macro for over 15 years, and I’ve called the last 4 major market tops and bottoms. When I make a new move in the market, I’ll say it here so you can copy my moves. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

The deputy leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, owns a property company - Quidnet REIT. From 2020 to 2022 it paid Tice and his trust £600k in dividends. Quidnet should have paid £120k of tax on those dividends. It didn't. A 🧵 with evidence from the company's own filings:

1/3. Very helpful summary in preparation for the epochal Hungarian elections tomorrow. See also essays by Anne Applebaum and Lászlo Gendler and commentary by Kim Scheppele mikegalsworthy.substack.com/p/why-an-orban…

🚨 NEW: Police are now assessing whether Reform UK broke the law with its free energy bills prize [@SabriSun_Miller]

I never thought I’d see a U.S. president and vice president actively back a European leader caught collaborating with the Kremlin at the expense of Europe’s security. That will forever be the legacy of Trump and Vance in Europe. We will not forget.

Massive geopolitical shift. The Dutch Chief of Defence confirms Europe is actively preparing to sideline the US military. They are building an independent defense force using cheap advanced tech because they can no longer rely on the chaotic Trump administration.

Timothy Snyder is a Yale historian who has spent his career studying authoritarianism in Eastern Europe. The framing he's amplifying from emptywheel is precise and documented: this is a transnational effort, funded by Russian oil, to replace Western liberalism with a pro-Russian ideology posing as restoration. The money trail is specific. Hungary's Mathias Corvinus Collegium - Orbán's "pet university" - received a $1.7 billion endowment in 2020: 10 percent stakes in Hungary's largest energy company and largest pharmaceutical company, plus $462 million in cash. That endowment is funded in significant part by Russian oil revenues flowing through state energy contracts. MCC then funds a sprawling network of think tanks, fellowships, publications, and summits pushing the same ideological program across Europe and into the United States. Heritage Foundation signed a "landmark cooperation agreement" with Orbán's Danube Institute. Heritage's president Kevin Roberts has praised Orbán's movement for fighting for "Truth, for tradition, for families." Gladden Pappin - Harvard-trained, Catholic, now running a Hungarian state foreign policy institute - sits in bilateral meetings on the Hungarian side when American officials visit. He was in Vance's study at the Naval Observatory for drinks with Orbán last fall. If Magyar wins Sunday he has pledged to defund MCC, recover its state assets, and end the use of public money to build political networks. That is why Vance flew to Budapest. That is why Trump endorsed Orbán twice by video. That is why the pipeline near Serbia produced two backpacks of explosives a week before the vote. The Sunday election is not about Hungary. It is about whether the money laundering vehicle for this network survives.

If Orbán falls, something much bigger could collapse with him. Not just power in Hungary - but a network built across Europe. I’ve been reporting on what’s at stake: robjcameron.substack.com/p/ripples-on-t…

One of Elon’s baby mamas wants you to know how Republican pay-for-play influence gigs work