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Goldman Sachs sees U.S. diesel margins dropping to $46/bbl and Europe to $31/bbl by Q4 2026; holds gasoline forecasts at $23 and $13 per barrel respectively. #oil #dieselprice

Japanese employee of major heavy electrical firm detained in Dalian, China in May for allegedly attempting to export controlled rare earth items. #rareearth

Wind Financial Morning Post: June 24, 2026 Market Brief The draft Financial Law was submitted for review for the first time, marking a key step in China's financial rule-of-law development. Forty cities were selected for pilot reforms in circulation and consumption, with a clear "roadmap" for expanding auto consumption across the whole chain. China's supercomputer ranked first in the world again after nine years, setting a new global computing-power record. The U.S. Senate passed a resolution aimed at limiting Trump's war powers over Iran. Trump: Iran has agreed to nuclear-related inspections and to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Oman and Iran issued a joint statement and will jointly draft an agreement on navigation management in the Strait of Hormuz. Global stock markets suffered a "Black Tuesday"; AI trading cooled, and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10%. Goldman Sachs warned of an AI bubble: once the first major company cuts spending, the whole market will be repriced. Top Stories Global AI trading suffered a "Black Tuesday." Cross-party lawmakers in South Korea's National Assembly discussed including unrealized gains from stocks and real estate in comprehensive taxation. After the news, South Korea's stock market "collapsed." High-valuation AI concept stocks such as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics fell sharply, and the pressure quickly spread to related stocks in other markets. At the same time, concerns among South Korean regulators about overheated AI speculation continued to rise. Renewed expectations of Fed rate hikes, together with market rumors that Nvidia was asking PCB and optical module makers to cut prices, also put pressure on the market. The U.S. Senate passed the Iran-related War Powers Resolution, which had previously been passed by the House of Representatives, by a vote of 50 to 48. This is the first time such a resolution has passed both chambers of Congress. The resolution requires the president to end U.S. military operations against Iran unless Congress declares war or authorizes the use of force. However, as the resolution is a concurrent resolution of Congress, it is not legally binding and does not require the president's signature, so it is mainly symbolic. U.S. President Trump posted on social media that Iran had fully agreed to accept the highest level of long-term nuclear-related inspections in the future. Based on Iran's "major concessions," the U.S. allowed the Strait of Hormuz to remain open and no longer imposed a maritime blockade. Oman coordinated with the International Maritime Organization to open a temporary navigation channel in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian funds unfrozen by the U.S. will be used exclusively to buy food and medical supplies from the United States. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran would decide how to use its unfrozen assets entirely according to its national interests and would not be subject to any restrictions. Oman and Iran issued a joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz, saying both sides agreed to maintain dialogue in order to reach consensus on future navigation management, services provided, and related fees in the Strait of Hormuz. The statement said that all arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz must fully respect the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the two countries. Bahreini, Iran's representative to the United Nations Office in Geneva, said the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to merchant ships and no fees were being charged. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said the United States would engage directly with the Lebanese government. Speaking about future arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, Rubio said no country is allowed to charge tolls or other fees on international waterways, as this is what current international law requires. As for how specific issues will be handled, he said proposals and discussions would take place at an appropriate time. China Macro & Policy The 23rd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress was held in Beijing. The draft Financial Law and the draft revision to the People's Bank of China Law were submitted to the NPC Standing Committee for review for the first time. The second draft revision to the Trademark Law was also submitted for review. It aims to address problems such as malicious trademark registration and trademark hoarding, and to step up the crackdown on "bad-faith trademarks." Premier Li Qiang of the State Council met with South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok. Li Qiang said China and South Korea each have strengths in innovation, and their industrial and value chains are deeply integrated. The two sides can further promote coordination and mutual embedding, make full use of complementary advantages, consolidate and improve cooperation in traditional industries, and expand cooperation in emerging industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomedicine. Vice Premier He Lifeng of the State Council said during an inspection trip to Henan that China should accelerate the improvement of its industrial innovation system and continue to stabilize the scale and improve the structure of foreign trade. He said efforts should be made to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, steadily and orderly advance the exit and reform transformation of local government financing platforms, continue to promote the reform and risk resolution of small and medium-sized local financial institutions, and work to stabilize the real estate market. Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing of the State Council emphasized at a national video conference on further deepening the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises that China should focus on strategic missions and main responsibilities, unswervingly deepen SOE reform, make state-owned enterprises and state-owned capital stronger, better, and larger, continuously strengthen core functions and improve core competitiveness, and better play the leading role of the state-owned economy. Vice Premier Liu Guozhong of the State Council emphasized during an inspection trip to Jiangsu that China should strengthen innovation leadership and policy coordination, build biomedicine into an emerging pillar industry, cultivate and develop the future industry of brain-computer interfaces, accelerate high-level scientific and technological self-reliance, and continue to foster new quality productive forces. The People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the All-China Women's Federation issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Strengthening Financial Support for Women's Employment and Development." The document said China should increase the input of financial resources and broaden diversified financing channels for women's employment and entrepreneurship. It also called for improving insurance protection mechanisms and improving social insurance systems covering childbirth, medical care, old age, unemployment, and work-related injuries. China Equities Markets A-shares fell on shrinking turnover. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.37% at 4,106.25 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.17%, the ChiNext Index fell 3.84%, and the Wind All-A Index fell 2.07%. Market turnover was 3.47 trillion yuan. On the market, nonferrous metal concept stocks saw a wave of limit-down moves, while computing-power hardware stocks such as PCB and CPO stocks adjusted sharply. The large financial sector remained strong, while medicine, real estate, and humanoid robot concepts rose against the trend. The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.82% at 23,336.28 points, falling for a fifth straight trading day. The Hang Seng Tech Index tumbled 3.3%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.96%. Nonferrous metals, semiconductors, and large-model concept stocks led the declines, while Chinese banks and biopharmaceutical stocks performed better. Southbound funds posted net buying of nearly HK$10.4 billion, with SMIC receiving net buying of nearly HK$2.5 billion. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an open proposal to all Shanghai-listed companies for the 2.0 special campaign on "improving quality, increasing efficiency, and enhancing returns." It guided companies to standardize information release mechanisms through non-statutory disclosure channels and warned against being actively or passively drawn into speculation around hot concepts. It encouraged companies to reasonably raise dividend payout ratios and increase the frequency of cash dividends according to their capabilities, and encouraged active share buybacks and cancellations as well as share purchases by major shareholders. Since 2026, enthusiasm among A-share listed company shareholders for increasing their holdings has continued to rise. Based on the change deadline, as of June 23, major shareholders of 454 A-share companies had increased their holdings by nearly 3 billion shares this year. Based on average trading prices during the relevant periods, the total value exceeded 35 billion yuan. More listed companies are using a combination of "shareholding increases plus buybacks" to help stabilize share prices and boost market confidence. Since the start of the year, as the A-share market has recovered, private equity stock funds have notably accelerated their pace of adding positions. Data show that as of recently, the stock private equity position index rose to 81.55%, up 0.56 percentage points from the previous period and reaching a nearly nine-week high. In this round of position increases, large private equity firms acted as the "vanguard," with many 10-billion-yuan-level private funds even choosing to be fully invested. The position level of 10-billion-yuan private funds reached 85.98%, the second-highest level this year. This concentrated position increase by leading private funds reflects rising institutional recognition of medium- and long-term market opportunities. Momenta published its post-hearing information pack on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, meaning the company has passed the HKEX hearing and has officially entered the final stage of its IPO push. It is reported that Momenta plans to raise at least US$1 billion in this Hong Kong IPO, with an expected valuation of more than 100 billion yuan. China Industry News New policies to expand auto consumption across the whole chain were released. Around aftermarket consumption such as auto modification, RV camping, classic cars, repair and insurance services, auto racing, and car rental, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments proposed 17 specific measures. They also selected 40 pilot cities to carry out auto circulation and consumption reforms, cultivate new auto consumption scenarios, and enrich new business forms. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Public Security jointly issued a notice. Information on national motor vehicle certificates will be shared in real time. Domestically made passenger cars will be able to complete "same-day purchase, same-day tax payment, and same-day registration." The measure is expected to cover more than 20 million vehicles each year. Announcement No. 1 for the 12th round of national centralized volume-based drug procurement was released. This round includes 65 varieties, including commonly used clinical products such as baricitinib, dapagliflozin metformin extended-release and controlled-release formulations, and vitamin B6 injections. Twelve varieties took part in earlier pre-reporting but were not included in the procurement scope. Relevant departments have drafted special policies to support the export of digital culture, covering online literature, online dramas, online games, animation, digital music, and other content. The policy is currently seeking opinions. In recent years, digital cultural products have created a "China wave" around the world. From January to April this year, China's exports of personal cultural and entertainment services grew by as much as 39.5%. The International Supercomputing Conference released the global Top500 supercomputer list. China's fully domestically developed "Lingsheng" supercomputer topped the global TOP500 with performance of 2.19 EFlops. It is the world's first supercomputing system with sustained performance above 2 exaFLOPS. China returned to first place in global supercomputing after nine years. Fintech The European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs approved the long-discussed digital euro plan. The European Parliament is expected to formally confirm the committee's position at a plenary session in early July. After that, the EU will start formal negotiations with its 27 member states. Lawmakers hope to reach a final agreement by the end of this year. Corporate News & Updates Forty-eight small and medium-sized Chinese iOS developers jointly submitted a complaint letter to the State Administration for Market Regulation, requesting an investigation into Apple's suspected abuse of market dominance. They also asked Apple to open up third-party app distribution, third-party in-app payment, and external-link payment channels, and to fulfill its commitment to the "lowest global fee rate." Tesla Optimus 3 is moving toward mass production. Taiwan-based supplier Mirle Automation has begun supplying harmonic reducers and joint modules to Tesla, while Asia Optical will provide spherical and aspherical lenses for the Optimus 3 robot. The mass production schedules for new products from both companies point to the second half of this year through 2027. SpaceX plans to raise US$25 billion through its first high-grade bond issuance in the United States. SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son believes that the space data center idea advocated by Elon Musk is of little significance. He said the outcome of the AI race will be decided by computing power on Earth. Son said the advantage of lower electricity costs for space data centers would be offset by other high costs, and SoftBank will focus on building strong data center capabilities on Earth. WeChat is set for its biggest update ever. WeChat's native AI assistant "Xiaowei" is being tested on a small scale. Users can operate some basic functions through text or voice conversations, including using mini programs for shopping, daily conversations, file reading, setting reminders, sending messages, making transfers, and managing Moments. Samsung Electronics launched its Universal Flash Storage 5.0 solution, which will enter mass production in the fourth quarter of this year. The solution achieves an industry-leading bandwidth of 10.8 GB/s, with sequential read speeds of up to 10.8 GB/s and sequential write speeds of up to 9.5 GB/s. Its sequential read and write speeds are more than twice as fast as the previous UFS 4.1 standard. ByteDance's Volcano Engine held the Force Original Power Conference, where it released Doubao large model 2.1 Pro, as well as several new models for video, images, audio, and other fields. It also upgraded its cloud service system for agents. In addition, the second-generation Doubao AI phone, jointly promoted by ZTE and ByteDance, will soon be launched in the market. CATL released its first station-level sodium-ion energy storage solution, launching the demonstration sodium-ion energy storage system Tianheng Sodium-ion. The first batch of sodium-ion energy storage systems will be delivered to customers in the Chinese market in September 2026, with a full-year shipment target of 1 GWh by the end of 2026. Global market delivery will begin in June 2027. Global Macro & Policy Bahreini, Iran's representative to the United Nations Office in Geneva, said the technical-level talks between the United States and Iran in Switzerland went "very smoothly." The two sides will set up two working groups in the coming days to discuss the lifting of sanctions on Iran and the Iranian nuclear issue at the technical level. U.S. President Trump said Iran's statement on International Atomic Energy Agency inspections was wrong, and inspectors would enter the local area to carry out work at an appropriate time. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei had earlier said there were no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit Iran's damaged nuclear facilities for the time being. Intelligence agencies of the "Five Eyes" alliance warned in a rare joint statement that powerful artificial intelligence models capable of launching devastating cyberattacks on governments and businesses could emerge within months. They urged national leaders to take immediate action. The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022. The preliminary Services PMI rose to 51.3, a four-month high. The preliminary Composite PMI rose to 52.2, a five-month high. Corporate purchasing inventories reached the second-highest level on record, but factory employment fell to a six-year low. The preliminary Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for June edged down to 51.3, but the Services PMI rose from 47.7 in May to 48.9, driving the Composite PMI up to 49.5, beating expectations. Germany's manufacturing sector remained in expansion, but its services sector unexpectedly contracted further. France's manufacturing sector returned to expansion, and its services sector also improved sharply, though it remained in contraction. The preliminary U.K. Manufacturing PMI for June fell to 53.1, below market expectations. The preliminary Services PMI fell to 48.7, while the market had expected it to rise to 50.1. The preliminary Composite PMI fell to 49.4, hitting a 14-month low and staying below the boom-bust line for a second straight month. The employment sub-index fell to a nearly two-year low. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations warned that a new round of El Niño may begin within weeks and could be stronger than previous cycles. Global agricultural production and food security must enter a state of full alert. The Sahel, southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Dry Corridor of Central America, and the Caribbean face the highest probability of disaster. Global Equity Markets The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower. The Dow fell 0.09% to 51,666.84 points, the S&P 500 fell 1.44% to 7,365.46 points, and the Nasdaq fell 2.21% to 25,587.04 points. Nvidia fell more than 4%, and Caterpillar fell more than 3%, leading the Dow's losses. The Wind U.S. Magnificent Seven Tech Giants Index fell 1.42%, Tesla fell more than 5%, and Google fell more than 1%. SpaceX rose nearly 1%, ending a three-day losing streak. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.55%, Canadian Solar fell more than 8%, and Pony.ai fell nearly 7%. The three major European stock indexes all closed lower. Germany's DAX fell 0.98% to 24,893.58 points; France's CAC 40 fell 0.71% to 8,340.71 points; and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 fell 0.09% to 10,428.85 points. South Korea's KOSPI closed down sharply by 9.99% at 8,203.84 points, triggering circuit breakers twice during the session. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down 3.55% at 69,788.38 points. AI-related stocks fell across the board, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both down more than 12%, Kioxia down more than 15%, and SoftBank Group down 10%. India's SENSEX 30 fell 1.16% to 76,200.68 points. Goldman Sachs strategists warned that in the past few weeks, the market had largely ignored almost all negative signals in the AI capital expenditure trade. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Google A will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Bonds China's interbank bond market weakened, with yields on major interest-rate bonds generally rising, though mostly by less than 1 bp. Treasury futures fell across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.32%. The central bank conducted 524.5 billion yuan of reverse repo operations, resulting in a net injection of 75 billion yuan, but tightness in interbank funding intensified. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 4.01 bps to 4.194%, the 3-year yield fell 3.39 bps to 4.218%, the 5-year yield fell 2.49 bps to 4.268%, the 10-year yield fell 1.98 bps to 4.497%, and the 30-year yield fell 1.21 bps to 4.946%. Commodities The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued notices that, from settlement after the close on June 25, the daily price limit for relevant contracts of crude oil, fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil futures will be adjusted to 14%. The trading margin ratio for hedging positions will be 15%, and the margin ratio for ordinary positions will be 16%. Trading fees and trading limits will also be adjusted at the same time. International precious metals futures mostly closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 1.75% to US$4,129.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 6.03% to US$61.63 per ounce. The main U.S. oil contract closed down 1.1% at US$73.05 per barrel; the main Brent oil contract fell 1.02% to US$76.73 per barrel. London base metals all fell. LME lead fell 0.99% to US$1,944.5 per tonne, LME copper fell 2.02% to US$13,373.5 per tonne, LME nickel fell 2.95% to US$17,230.0 per tonne, LME zinc fell 2.97% to US$3,501.5 per tonne, LME aluminum fell 3.11% to US$3,259.5 per tonne, and LME tin fell 5.78% to US$51,055.0 per tonne. FX & Currency Markets On Tuesday, the onshore yuan closed at 6.7865 against the U.S. dollar at 16:30, down 102 bps from the previous trading day, and closed at 6.7938 in night trading. The central parity rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar was set at 6.8171, down 21 bps from the previous trading day. In late New York trading, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.37% to 101.37. Most non-U.S. currencies fell. The euro fell 0.41% against the dollar to 1.1381, the pound fell 0.36% to 1.3203, the Australian dollar fell 1.21% to 0.6916, the dollar fell 0.02% against the yen to 161.5800, the dollar rose 0.36% against the Canadian dollar to 1.4210, the dollar rose 0.12% against the Swiss franc to 0.8096, and the offshore yuan fell 170 bps against the dollar to 6.7948. On the first day of the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions of the World Economic Forum, also known as the 2026 Summer Davos Forum, progress in the internationalization of the renminbi was widely recognized by Chinese and foreign scholars attending the meeting. The yen weakened further against the U.S. dollar, approaching its lowest level in nearly 40 years. Key Economic Events 09:30 ET, Jun 23: Australia CPI for May 16:00 ET, Jun 23: Germany IFO Business Climate Index for June 16:00 ET, Jun 23: Switzerland ZEW Investor Confidence Index for June 19:00 ET, Jun 23: U.S. MBA 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate for Last Week 20:30 ET, Jun 23: U.S. Current Account for Q1 22:00 ET, Jun 23: U.S. New Home Sales for May 22:30 ET, Jun 23: U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for Last Week 01:00 ET, Jun 24: U.S. 5-Year Treasury Note Auction 07:50 ET, Jun 23: Bank of Japan Releases Summary of Opinions from June Monetary Policy Meeting 09:20 ET, Jun 23: 420.3 billion yuan of reverse repos mature on the People's Bank of China open market 10:00 ET, Jun 23: Press Conference held by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of China 14:40 ET, Jun 23: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino delivers a speech 15:00 ET, Jun 23: Bank of Thailand announces interest rate decision 19:15 ET, Jun 23: Senior Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers delivers a speech 19:20 ET, Jun 23: Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Ben Broadbent delivers a speech 23:00 ET, Jun 23: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra delivers a speech 24:00 ET, Jun 23: NVIDIA holds Annual General Meeting (TBD): 2026 Mobile World Congress will be held from June 24 to 26 (TBD): 2026 Digital Government Intelligent Application and Innovation Development Conference is held (TBD): 2026 Global Electrification Industrial Ecology Conference is held (TBD): The 36th China (Hangzhou) International Textile and Apparel Supply Chain Expo will be held from June 24 to 26 (TBD): [IPOs] A-share Zhenbao Technology, Hong Kong shares Xi'an Machinery Intelligence, Mai Ke Pharma-B officially list; Yongli Precision on the Beijing Stock Exchange opens for subscription today (Earnings Reports): Micron Technology 01:30 ET, Jun 24: Bank of Canada releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 04:00 ET, Jun 24: Federal Reserve releases results of annual bank stress test 04:00 ET, Jun 24: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the IMF 04:30 ET, Jun 24: Micron Technology holds Q3 2026 Fiscal Year Earnings Call

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to testify before House Financial Services Committee on July 14 at 10 a.m. ET — his first congressional appearance. Senate hearing expected July 15. DOJ probe into ex-Chair Powell ruled improper and paused. #fed #Financial

Wind Financial Morning Post: June 23, 2026 Market Brief World Economic Forum’s 2026 Summer Davos begins today, with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to attend the opening ceremony. China’s Ministry of Commerce, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Finance unveil 15 new measures to stabilize and enhance foreign investment, with finance and pharmaceuticals as key open sectors. China’s Ministry of Commerce adds 10 U.S. entities to export control list, citing national security concerns. China’s June LPR rates remain unchanged: 3% for one-year and 3.5% for five-year-plus, marking 13 consecutive months without adjustment; policy easing expected in second half of year. A-share markets surge on high volume; ChiNext Index hits new record high, led by financial sector rally. U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland yield five key agreements, including temporary easing of oil sanctions. Iran’s Parliament Speaker says Hormuz Strait will be managed under Iran-established mechanisms. UK Prime Minister Starmer resigns as Labour leader, triggering leadership contest amid fiscal and debt concerns. Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan dies at age 100. SpaceX launches inaugural investment-grade bond offering; shares plunge over 16%. Top Stories From June 23 to 25, the 17th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the New Champions (2026 Summer Davos) will be held in Dalian, under the theme "Scaling Innovation." The event will feature in-depth discussions on growth, technology, employment, energy, and the future of the global economy, including a special forum on interpreting China's "15th Five-Year Plan." Premier Li Qiang will attend from June 23 to 24, delivering a keynote address at the opening ceremony, meeting with foreign guests, and holding talks with business leaders. China's Ministry of Commerce announced it has added 10 U.S. entities, including Axiom, to its export control list in response to the U.S. government's designation of so-called "Chinese military enterprises." The move prohibits any organization or individual worldwide from transferring or supplying Chinese-origin dual-use items to these entities. The Ministry of Finance simultaneously issued a notice banning the procurement of products from 46 U.S. companies in government procurement activities. Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding, the first round of U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland yielded five key outcomes: ensuring open access to the Strait of Hormuz, laying groundwork for final agreement negotiations, ending hostilities in Lebanon, permitting Iranian oil sales, and unfreezing Iranian assets. U.S. Vice President Vance said the talks laid the foundation for a final deal. The U.S. Treasury issued a general license temporarily relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil exports for 60 days. U.S. Vice President Vance said approximately 15 million barrels of oil have moved through the Strait of Hormuz, and mechanisms will be established to ensure its continued openness. Iranian delegation head and Parliament Speaker Karim Khalebi stated that management of the Strait will not revert to pre-war conditions. Under international law, the Strait will be managed by Iran according to its own mechanisms. Over 400 vessels are reportedly anchored off the eastern approaches to the Strait, awaiting full reopening. Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan died at age 100. Greenspan was the second-longest-serving Fed chair in history, overseeing monetary policy through major crises including the 1987 stock market crash, the Asian financial crisis, and the dot-com bubble. His tenure coincided with a decade-long U.S. economic expansion. However, his legacy has been increasingly questioned since the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent deep recession. China Macro & Policy Standing Committee member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier Li Qiang, while in Dalian, Liaoning, emphasized the need to pursue intelligent, green, and integrated development, strengthen original and leading technological breakthroughs, reinforce industrial foundation reconstruction, vigorously develop high-end equipment manufacturing, and accelerate the building of a modern industrial system to inject new momentum into high-quality development. China's Ministry of Commerce, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Finance jointly released the "Action Plan for Stabilizing and Enhancing Foreign Investment," introducing 15 new measures to expand market access, improve investment convenience, and optimize foreign investment management. Services sector liberalization is a priority, with finance and pharmaceuticals targeted. The plan supports foreign institutions in using risk management tools including government bond futures and permits foreign firms to legally provide fund investment advisory services. China's Ministry of Commerce data shows that from January to May, China's actual foreign investment amounted to 327.29 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year. In May alone, actual foreign investment rose 5.9% year-on-year. Ministry of Finance data shows that national fiscal revenue reached 10.05 trillion yuan in the first five months, up 4% year-on-year, with accelerated growth. Tax revenue totaled 8.26 trillion yuan, up 4.4%. Securities transaction stamp tax reached 126.2 billion yuan, up 88.8%. Fiscal expenditure totaled 11.39 trillion yuan, up 0.8%. China's June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged: one-year LPR at 3% and five-year-plus LPR at 3.5%, matching May levels. Since the 10-basis-point cut in May 2025, LPR has remained unchanged for 13 consecutive months. Experts say the pause reflects a strong start to the macroeconomic recovery in the first quarter, with policy easing likely in the second half. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in May, the unemployment rate for urban labor aged 16–24 (excluding students) was 15.6%, for those aged 25–29 it was 7.2%, and for those aged 30–59 it was 4.1%. China Equities Markets A-shares surged on high volume Monday, with the ChiNext Index hitting a new record high. Financial stocks led gains, while nonferrous metals and chemical sectors saw multiple limit-up closes; diamond cultivation concepts rallied. Biopharma, robotics, and commercial aerospace stocks weakened. At close, the SSE Index rose 1.78% to 4,163.1, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 2.13%, the ChiNext Index advanced 2.52%, and the Wind All China Index rose 1.9%. Market turnover hit 3.76 trillion yuan, the second-highest in history. Hang Seng Index closed down 0.65% at 23,768.52. Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.19%, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.77%. Consumer stocks led losses, while CPO, large model concepts, and Chinese brokerages surged. ZhiPu rose 15%, market cap surpassing 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars. Net selling by mainland investors via Stock Connect totaled 5.82 billion Hong Kong dollars; Changfei Fiber Optic Cable was the most sold, while JianTao Group was the most bought. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing announced revisions to its client margin requirements. The adjustments will be implemented in two phases: the first reducing client initial and maintenance margins from 1.33 times to 1.2 times the clearing house margin, followed by a further reduction to 1.1 times. Banxia Investment's Li Bei explicitly warned of risks in the AI sector, stating that conditions for a bubble burst are already in place, and urged investors considering a shift into AI to proceed with extreme caution. She reaffirmed her bullish view on low-valued domestic demand sectors including real estate, consumer goods, and construction materials, arguing that current market pessimism is laying the groundwork for structural opportunities over the next two years. China Industry News In response to media reports on formamide in infant diapers, the State Administration for Market Regulation, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Health Commission, and National Disease Control and Prevention Bureau have formed a joint investigation team to verify the issue and handle it in accordance with law. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting on comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, urging large-scale pig farming enterprises to lead in reducing production, strictly controlling secondary breeding, culling weak piglets, and lowering average slaughter weight. Key producing provinces must promptly revise and implement provincial capacity regulation plans and continue substantive capacity reduction. The world's first CAR-T cell therapy for solid tumors has been approved for market launch in China. Kexi Pharmaceutical's domestically developed CAR-T product "Kailimei" (Shuruiji Aolunsa Injection) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for treating gastric cancer after failure of second-line or higher therapies. The National Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, convened the fourth meeting of financial consumer and investor protection liaison officers, urging coordinated efforts to regulate financial product marketing, require clear disclosure of comprehensive financing costs for personal loans, and conduct special governance of personal financial data. According to data from the China Cultural and Tourism Data Center, domestic tourism during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday totaled 124 million trips, up 4.4% year-on-year, with total spending reaching 44.456 billion yuan, up 4%. In June, the real estate market in key cities continued its recovery. According to Centaline Research, 88,000 second-hand residential units were traded across 20 key cities from June 1 to 20, up 10.9% year-on-year. Fintech The Bank of England released its regulatory framework for systemically important stablecoins, planning to allow compliant stablecoin operations in the UK starting in 2027. The central bank abandoned previous proposals for individual and corporate holding limits, instead imposing a 40 billion-pound issuance cap per stablecoin. The maximum proportion of interest-bearing assets in reserves has been raised from 60% to 70%. Corporate News & Updates Alibaba's management recently participated in a team-building activity planting rice in Hangzhou, with founder Jack Ma and executives Wu Yongming, Shao Xiaofeng, Jiang Fan, Wu Zeming, Jiang Fang, and Zhou Jingren in attendance. Ant Group Chairman Jing Xian Dong and CEO Han Xinyi also joined. NVIDIA published a blog detailing the full liquid cooling technology used in its Vera Rubin platform. The platform is the world's first AI computing system to achieve 100% liquid cooling, prompting cloud service providers and data center operators to accelerate liquid cooling transitions. NVIDIA announced the launch of HaloS, a safety software system derived from autonomous driving technology, enabling humanoid robots with real-time environmental perception and active reasoning—breaking the conventional "stop or slow down upon detecting humans" logic. NVIDIA also established a dedicated testing lab to accelerate commercial safety certification. Micron Technology announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic covering joint design of AI memory and storage architecture, supply agreements, and full internal deployment of Anthropic's Claude large model at Micron. Micron will also make a strategic investment in Anthropic's H-round financing. SpaceX has launched its inaugural investment-grade bond offering, targeting at least $20 billion in proceeds to repay a comparable bridge loan. SpaceX signed a compute agreement with open-source AI startup Reflection AI, with potential total value of around $6.3 billion. According to a new SEC filing, Elon Musk has exercised all rights under his 2018 Tesla CEO compensation package, receiving 304 million shares, with a paper gain of approximately $116 billion (7.8 trillion yuan). The exercise marks the conclusion of a six-year dispute over the compensation plan. The operator of the "Qianfan" low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation, Yuanxin Satellite, has launched a new funding round, seeking to raise capital for no more than 20% equity. No more than three new investors will be accepted, with total investment pledges of at least 5 billion yuan. Global Macro & Policy U.S. President Trump signed two executive orders aimed at accelerating advanced quantum computer development and mitigating associated security risks. One order directs federal agencies, including the Department of Energy, to collaborate with private industry and academia to deploy a quantum computer for scientific research by 2028. Iran has released the funeral schedule for its late Supreme Leader. The Civil Aviation Organization announced flight restrictions at domestic airports from July 4 to 9 during the farewell, funeral, and burial ceremonies of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's cooperation and interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency will continue under existing mechanisms, in accordance with Iranian parliamentary laws and decisions by the Supreme National Security Council. During the 18-hour negotiations in Switzerland, Iran did not discuss nuclear issues or make any new commitments. UK Prime Minister Starmer announced he will step down as Labour Party leader but will remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. By convention, the new Labour leader will assume the premiership. Notably, U.S. President Trump preemptively announced Starmer's resignation before the speech. Markets are concerned about any potential increase in bond issuance to address the UK's deepening debt crisis. Amid the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish pivot and Wall Street's withdrawal of dovish expectations, Citigroup maintains a contrary view. Citigroup believes the Fed's next move will be a cut, not a hike, with a base case of a 25-basis-point cut in October, followed by two additional 25-basis-point cuts in December and January. Its key rationale: a sharp drop in oil prices is eliminating upside inflation risks. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that despite Middle East conflict impacts, the ECB currently has no need for stronger measures, as inflation is expected to return to target over the medium term. Several ECB officials warned that inflationary pressures are spreading across broader economic sectors. South Korean customs data shows that exports for the first 20 days of June reached $61.99 billion, up 60.4% year-on-year—a new record. Demand for AI chips continues to surge, driving semiconductor exports up 188.4% and computer-related product exports up 293.3%. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israeli forces operating in southern Lebanon have "no restrictions" in eliminating security threats and insisted that Israeli troops will maintain a long-term presence in the so-called "security zone." Global Equity Markets U.S. major indices closed mixed: Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29% to 51,712.71; S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 7,472.79; Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.32% to 26,166.60. Caterpillar rose over 3%, Amgen up more than 2%, leading the Dow. Wind US Magnificent Seven Index fell 2.33%, with Google down over 5% and Amazon down over 4%. SpaceX plunged over 16%, erasing $400 billion in market value and closing below its IPO day close. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.35%; Pony.ai dropped over 5%, Atdo down over 4%. European major indices closed mixed: Germany's DAX rose 0.62% to 25,139.69; France's CAC 40 fell 0.25% to 8,400.11; UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.72% to 10,437.85. U.S.-Iran interim peace deal lifted risk appetite in UK and German markets, but French stocks were weighed by energy stock declines. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed up 1.55% at 72,353.96; South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.69% to 9,114.55, both hitting new highs. SK Hynix surged 5.6%, surpassing Samsung Electronics as South Korea's most valuable stock—the first time in 25 years and seven months. India's SENSEX 30 rose 0.38% to 77,094.07. AI-driven rallies in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have caused explosive growth in single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking them. South Korea's financial regulators expressed "deep regret" over launching such ETFs and are considering targeted stabilization measures to curb potential market disruption from retail investors flooding into high-risk products. Bonds China's interbank bond market traded weakly, with most key government bond yields rising. Treasury futures closed higher, with the 30-year contract up 0.15%. The People's Bank of China conducted 476.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, net withdrawing 341.5 billion yuan. Market liquidity remained tight, with D001 weighted average rate slightly higher. According to China Securities Journal, the offshore "dim sum bond" market has issued over 800 billion yuan in 2026, far exceeding the same period last year. Experts attribute the expansion to rising attractiveness of RMB assets, improved offshore RMB liquidity, and financing cost advantages from U.S.-China interest rate divergence. Future growth will be supported by increased overseas expansion by Chinese firms, rising offshore demand for RMB financing, and the development of offshore benchmark yield curves. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve: 2-year yield up 5.31 bps to 4.226%; 3-year yield up 5.36 bps to 4.246%; 5-year yield up 5.86 bps to 4.287%; 10-year yield up 5.55 bps to 4.509%; 30-year yield up 4.97 bps to 4.948%. Commodities U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.21% to $74.08 per barrel; Brent crude fell 2.8% to $77.81. Progress in U.S.-Iran talks and the U.S. decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian crude for 60 days allowed Iran to re-enter global markets. Iran has already exported over 30 million barrels to Asia in the past week, with daily exports at multi-year highs. Combined with U.S. strategic petroleum reserve releases and rising throughput through the Strait of Hormuz, market supply expectations have significantly eased, eroding geopolitical premiums and driving oil prices lower. Precious metals futures rose broadly: COMEX gold futures gained 0.88% to $4,209.70 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 0.42% to $65.19 per ounce. Hawkish Fed signals and rising geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand, supporting prices. London Metal Exchange prices were mixed: LME zinc rose 1.28% to $3,602 per tonne; LME nickel up 0.74% to $17,710; LME copper up 0.56% to $13,671; LME lead up 0.56% to $1,965; LME tin fell 0.11% to $53,235; LME aluminum down 1.07% to $3,360. FX & Currency Markets On Monday, the onshore CNY/USD rate closed at 6.7763 at 16:30, down 140 basis points from the previous close; night session ended at 6.7773. The PBOC mid-rate was set at 6.8150, down 20 basis points. At New York close, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.25% to 101.00. Most non-U.S. currencies fell: EUR/USD down 0.35% to 1.1428; GBP/USD up 0.11% to 1.3251; AUD/USD down 0.17% to 0.7001; USD/JPY up 0.19% to 161.6110; USD/CAD up 0.05% to 1.4159; USD/CHF up 0.18% to 0.8086; offshore CNY/USD rose 68 bps to 6.7778. Last week, the CFETS RMB index stood at 101.77, up 0.28% week-on-week; the BIS basket RMB index at 109.48, up 0.18%; the SDR basket RMB index at 96.62, up 0.22%, the highest since March 2023. A South Korean government official said the country will extend its foreign exchange stabilization tax exemption by three months, until end-September, to help banks secure U.S. dollar funding and ensure stable liquidity in the domestic foreign exchange market. Key Economic Events 07:00 EST, Jun 22: Australia S&P Global June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 08:30 EST, Jun 22: Japan June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 13:00 EST, Jun 22: India June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 13:00 EST, Jun 22: Singapore May CPI 14:45 EST, Jun 22: France INSEE June Manufacturing/Business Confidence Index 15:15 EST, Jun 22: France June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 15:30 EST, Jun 22: Germany June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 16:00 EST, Jun 22: Eurozone June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 16:30 EST, Jun 22: Hong Kong SAR, China May Composite CPI 16:30 EST, Jun 22: UK June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 18:00 EST, Jun 22: UK June CBI Industrial Order Expectations 20:15 EST, Jun 22: US ADP Employment Change for the week ended Jun 6 20:55 EST, Jun 22: US Weekly Redbook Commercial Retail Sales 21:45 EST, Jun 22: US S&P Global June Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash 22:00 EST, Jun 22: US June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 01:00 EST, Jun 23: US 2-Year Treasury Note Auction 04:30 EST, Jun 23: US Weekly API Crude Oil Inventory 09:20 EST, Jun 22: 449 billion yuan of reverse repos mature on the open market of the People's Bank of China 15:00 EST, Jun 22: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on expanding automobile consumption through the whole industrial chain 16:30 EST, Jun 22: Chief Economist of the European Central Bank Philip Lane delivers a speech at the European Parliament 21:00 EST, Jun 22: Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem delivers a speech 21:35 EST, Jun 22: Vice President of the European Central Bank Luis de Guindos delivers a speech 21:55 EST, Jun 22: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel delivers a speech (TBD): The 17th Summer Davos Forum will be held in Dalian from June 23 to 25, 2026 (TBD): MSCI will announce the results of its annual market classification review, South Korea is expected to be added to the developed market watchlist (TBD): 2026 Amazon Web Services China Summit will be held from June 23 to 24, 2026 (TBD): TSS 2026 TrendForce Semiconductor Industry Executive Forum will be held on June 23, 2026 (TBD): 2026 China Electric Power Enterprise Digitalization Conference & AI Empowering New Power System Construction Innovation Forum will be held from June 23 to 25, 2026 (TBD): [IPO] Xingyuan Material H-share and Huajian Future-B are officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange 01:30 ST, Jun 23: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra delivers a speech

Korea’s 50-60 age group leads retail stock ownership with 3.33M investors and 34.4% of shares; FSS chief warns on leveraged ETF risks and launches probe into SpaceX IPO allocation failure. #Korea #stockalert #InvestorWarning

US-Iran Geneva talks produce Lebanon ceasefire mechanism, Hormuz hotline, and 60-day oil sanctions relief; Iran to join Lebanon security setup while three working groups prepare next phase. #IranWar #Geneva #Hormuz

Stock private funds raise positions to 81.55% — a 9-week high — as A-share indices keep climbing. #stockalert #China

The Nikkei 225 climbed 1% during the session, setting a fresh record high. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himeno noted that monetary policy impacts the economy with a lag and reaffirmed expectations for sustained accommodative conditions. #stocknews #MarketTrends

Wind Financial Morning Post: June 22, 2026 Market Brief The week’s market focus centers on U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, with the Summer Davos Forum set to open. Iranian negotiators say a draft exemption for Iranian oil sanctions has been finalized. U.S. diplomats report progress in talks on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Britain faces a political shakeup as Prime Minister Starmer may announce his resignation. China’s Ministry of Transport forecasts over 652.78 million trips across regions during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. A surge in land prices has pushed floor prices for residential plots in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen above 100,000 yuan per square meter. Listed companies are ramping up share buybacks and insider purchases, with over 11 billion yuan in pledged buyback funds set to enter A-shares. OpenAI has unveiled a long-term vision: every individual will have a personalized AGI assistant. Top Stories Major global events loom this week. Domestically, the June LPR rate will be announced on June 22; the 2026 Summer Davos Forum will be held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the 2026 Shanghai Mobile World Congress opens on June 24; and China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release May industrial profits data. Internationally, progress in U.S.-Iran talks remains under intense scrutiny; U.S. May PCE price index and Q1 GDP final figures will be released; MSCI will announce its annual review, with South Korea potentially added to the developed markets watchlist; Nvidia’s shareholder meeting is scheduled; OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 models are expected to debut; and SK Hynix’s U.S. listing may be approved. Additionally, Micron Technology and others will release earnings. On June 21 local time, the first round of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland concluded. According to Iranian sources, after 80 minutes of talks under the mediation of Pakistan and Qatar, the meeting was temporarily suspended for internal consultations. No discussion of Iran’s nuclear program took place during this round. The focus centered on implementing Article 13 of the memorandum of understanding, with priority given to issues related to Lebanon. A member of Iran’s negotiating team revealed that a draft exemption for Iranian oil sanctions has been finalized and will be issued shortly. Administrative procedures for unfreezing Iran’s frozen assets are underway with participation from the Qatari delegation. Reports indicate Iran’s negotiating team left the venue in protest over Trump’s threatening remarks. However, U.S. diplomats stated Iran’s delegation remains in Switzerland and negotiations continue, with intensive discussions ongoing on all elements of the nuclear agreement. Progress has been made on the issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, U.S. President Trump posted on the social platform “Truth Social” that Iran must immediately halt its “proxy” activities in Lebanon, or face U.S. military action. China Macro & Policy China’s Ministry of Transport data shows that total interregional passenger volume during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 19–21, 2026) is estimated at 652.78 million trips, averaging 217.6 million per day, flat year-over-year. On June 21 alone, interregional passenger volume is projected at 220.2 million, up 9.4% from the previous day and 1.1% year-over-year. China’s Ministry of Commerce data shows the holiday consumption market remained stable, with adequate supply and steady prices for essential goods. In the first two days of the holiday, foot traffic and revenue at 78 key pedestrian streets and commercial districts rose 4.0% and 3.5% year-over-year, respectively. Trade-in programs for consumer goods have also driven sales growth. As of June 20, 2026, trade-in initiatives have benefited 136 million people and spurred sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan. On June 21, the 2026 APEC Business Leaders Forum was successfully held in Beijing. Ren Hongbin, Chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and Chair of the 2026 APEC Business Leaders Summit, stated that Asia-Pacific business leaders must work together to uphold the multilateral trading system centered on the WTO, promote regional trade and investment liberalization, and deepen Asia-Pacific economic integration. China Equities Markets CITIC Securities said the AI-driven market rally this year has been fueled by massive infrastructure investment, resembling the 2006–07 bull market driven by capital-intensive industries rather than the dot-com bubble. Higher interest rates are unlikely to impact AI-related cyclical stocks unless they directly affect end-demand, commercialization assumptions, or capital expenditure growth. Globally, the initial impact of rate hikes is being felt most acutely in sectors with weaker demand growth, reinforcing a K-shaped divergence between AI and non-AI sectors. Fund managers’ portfolio adjustments since the second quarter are becoming clearer, with divergent strategies emerging in pharmaceuticals, technology manufacturing, and consumer transportation. Significant differences exist in pharmaceuticals: traditional generic drugmakers are being sold off, while innovative drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredient-related stocks are being bought. Huaxia Fund’s Zhong Shuai has increased positions in packaging and testing firms; E Fund’s Qi He has added grid equipment stocks. E Fund’s Zhang Kun has reduced holdings in Huitai Medical and entered Guangshen Railway’s top ten shareholders. As the SSE Index hovers around 4,100 points, A-share companies are launching a new round of market-stabilizing measures through share purchases and buybacks. Wind data shows that since June, 27 companies have disclosed shareholder purchase plans. More than 160 companies have announced buyback plans, with cumulative buyback amounts exceeding 11 billion yuan based on the lower limit and potentially surpassing 20 billion yuan based on the upper limit. Many firms have demonstrated strong execution. Two new stocks will be offered this week. China Resources New Energy will open subscription on June 22, raising approximately 24.5 billion yuan — surpassing Joyson Electronics to become the largest IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Yikun Electric will also begin subscription on the same day on the Beijing Stock Exchange. China Industry News A new wave of land price increases is sweeping through core cities. Floor prices for residential land in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have all surpassed 100,000 yuan per square meter, with Shanghai’s highest land price exceeding 200,000 yuan per square meter last year. According to Centaline, in May, the total planned construction area of residential land sold in 300 cities fell 27.1% year-over-year, but average premiums rose to 9.5% due to strong demand for prime plots. In first-tier cities, land sales volume and proceeds rose 58% and 33% year-over-year, respectively, making them the most active segment of the land market. According to online platform data, as of 9 p.m. on June 21, the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival box office reached 392 million yuan, with 10.59 million tickets sold and 1.44 million screenings — setting a new record for the highest number of screenings in Chinese box office history. Toy Story 5 led the holiday box office. Prices for ferrophosphorus and lithium iron phosphate have surged this year, doubling from last year’s levels, yet demand remains robust. Strong exports of new energy vehicles and energy storage products are driving sustained demand growth, a key factor behind the price rise. Rising upstream raw material costs are another major contributor. Public REITs in China have reached their five-year anniversary as of June 21. To date, 86 REITs have been listed nationwide with a total fundraising amount of 245 billion yuan, including 59 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with 176 billion yuan raised. With the official launch of the first batch of commercial real estate REITs, the market now encompasses diversified asset classes including highways, industrial parks, energy, affordable housing, and commercial real estate. The Guangxi Bureau of National Financial Regulation has issued multiple approvals permitting Guangxi Rural Commercial United Bank to acquire stakes in six rural credit institutions through subscription and transfer. Analysts note that Guangxi’s “upstream participation in downstream” reform is accelerating, signaling that provincial institutions are reshaping the governance structure of the regional rural credit system through equity linkages. Fintech The wave of AI infrastructure investment is reshaping global capital markets, but hidden debt risks cannot be ignored. Goldman Sachs forecasts that hyperscale cloud companies will spend $5.3 trillion on capital expenditures between 2025 and 2030. Morgan Stanley estimates that data center construction alone will require $2.9 trillion by 2028, much of it debt-financed. Meanwhile, corporate clients are beginning to rein in spending: Uber and Walmart have restricted AI usage, shifting pricing models from subscriptions to per-token billing, sharply increasing cost pressures. Corporate News & Updates OpenAI has unveiled a new long-term vision to bring advanced artificial intelligence to billions worldwide. The next phase of OpenAI’s development will focus on creating personalized AGI assistants to help individuals manage daily tasks, work, learning, and exploration. OpenAI will launch its next-generation flagship model, GPT-5.6, expected to deliver transformative improvements in coding, agent workflows, and 3D generation, while offering lower pricing to directly challenge competitors. The GPT-5.6 series will include mini, standard, and Pro versions, with the most likely release window between June 22 and 28. A supplier to Apple has begun small-batch deliveries for its first foldable iPhone. According to internal targets received by the supplier, the device is slated for release in September. A source at an Apple supplier confirmed that the target timeline is for the first foldable iPhone to launch in fall 2026. Apple has not publicly confirmed the release date. Tesla has formally applied to register the trademark “Amazing Abundance,” signaling its deepening commitment to its long-term vision centered on artificial intelligence, humanoid robotics, and autonomous driving systems, with automation aimed at significantly reducing production costs. Global Macro & Policy Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, participating in a quadrilateral meeting with Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, stated that within a 60-day period, Iran will not block vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and no tolls or service fees will be imposed on passage through the strait. UK Prime Minister Starmer is preparing to announce his departure timeline. After consultations with cabinet members, advisors, and unions, Starmer believes he can no longer continue in office. Senior Labour figures suggest he may issue a formal statement as early as June 22. Transport Secretary Heidemann urged Starmer on June 19 to set a clear timetable for his exit. The Bank of Korea is concerned that massive bonuses at chip factories could trigger unexpected inflation. If wage hikes at semiconductor firms spread to other sectors, they could exert upward pressure on overall wages and intensify inflationary pressures through both supply and demand channels. South Korea’s May inflation rate reached 3.1%, the highest since early 2024. The central bank forecasts full-year inflation at 2.7%, significantly above its 2% target, making the July or September policy meetings potential windows for rate hikes. Naka Matsuzawa, Chief Macro Strategist at Nomura Securities, believes the Fed’s June policy meeting will, in hindsight, be seen as a “once-in-a-decade turning point” — the start of a credit cycle inflection and the end of the AI boom. In his macro strategy weekly report, Matsuzawa noted that markets currently overestimate near-term Fed tightening risks but severely underestimate the risks of a longer-term tightening path. Sources say Russia is considering channeling accumulated rouble surpluses from its rouble-rupee bilateral trade agreement with India into Indian infrastructure projects. Moscow plans to deploy these excess roubles into high-growth sectors including ports, biotechnology, and agriculture, as well as India’s special economic zones — aiming for long-term returns while hedging against Western sanctions. Sweden’s largest power company, Vattenfall, announced it has selected Rolls-Royce to build three small modular reactors in southwestern Sweden, marking the country’s first nuclear reactor construction in over 40 years. Sweden and other Nordic nations are experiencing a resurgence in nuclear development amid energy supply disruptions, seeking stable and clean power sources. Global Equity Markets Encouraged by the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and prospects for conflict de-escalation, U.S. equities rose last week, with major indices hitting new highs driven by tech stocks, though volatility persisted. Federal funds futures pricing shows a 70% probability of a rate hike by October. This week’s earnings report from Micron Technology may determine the near-term direction of the tech sector. Bonds Charles Hare, Chairman of the Policy and Resources Committee at the City of London Corporation, said current Sino-British financial cooperation focuses on green finance and offshore yuan. Through the China-UK Economic and Financial Dialogue, both sides have established working groups on green finance and yuan, jointly advancing green bonds and voluntary carbon market standards. He expressed hope that future cooperation will deepen liquidity in yuan markets and expand green financial products. Commodities Guinea’s President Mamadi Doumbouya has banned the export of raw gold to promote domestic processing and economic development. Speaking to local miners and gold buyers, Doumbouya stated that all gold must be processed within Guinea and raw ore will no longer be permitted to leave the country. Global copper traders await the U.S. Department of Commerce’s review report, which will be pivotal in determining Trump’s final tariff decision. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate a 43% probability of a 15% tariff on refined copper taking effect in January. Given copper’s irreplaceable role in AI infrastructure, most analysts and traders remain broadly optimistic about copper’s long-term outlook. Key Economic Events 08:00 EDT, Jun 22: Canada National Economic Confidence Index through Jun 19 08:30 EDT, Jun 22: Canada CPI for May 10:00 EDT, Jun 22: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index preliminary for June 21:20 EDT, Jun 21: The People's Bank of China has CNY 818 billion in 7-day reverse repos maturing 05:00 EDT, Jun 22: ECB policymaker Kocherlakota to speak 08:30 EDT, Jun 22: ECB President Lagarde to speak at the European Parliament SK Hynix plans to list in the U.S., and the U.S. SEC may approve as early as the week of Jun 22 "Digital-Smart Sichuan" industrial chain international cooperation exchange conference to be held on Jun 22 The 4th Chain Expo to be held from Jun 22 to 26 Roundtable on cooperation of the Land-Sea New Channel International Chamber of Commerce to be held on Jun 22

SK Hynix’s delivery of 12-layer HBM4E samples to major clients marks an important step in high-bandwidth memory competition. #TechStocks

US-Iran 14-point memo offers Iran heavy sanctions relief, oil export access, billions in frozen assets, and $300B financing; nuclear details deferred. Trump pushes multi-point deals like 20-pt Gaza plan and failed 28-pt Ukraine effort. #IranWar‌ #OilMarkets

Wind Financial Morning Post: June 18, 2026 Market Brief The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Implementing the Employment-First Strategy." The Lujiazui Forum unveiled new policy incentives, with several major financial measures announced. The nearly $5 trillion exchange-traded fund market welcomed a major innovation, as the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges released guidelines for active ETFs. Shanghai launched the construction of an offshore financial system, with six banks approved to pilot offshore renminbi foreign exchange trading. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled a hawkish stance, significantly raising the risk of rate hikes this year. Walsh overhauled the Federal Reserve's interest rate statement in his debut, downplaying the importance of forward guidance. Iran released the text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Trump: The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is not a final agreement; if Iran fails to comply, military strikes will be resumed. Global stock markets diverged on Wednesday, with semiconductor stocks rallying while crude oil and gold fell sharply. A wave of abnormal stock price fluctuations prompted over 70 A-share listed companies to issue risk warnings. Top Stories The 2026 Lujiazui Forum will open on June 17 in Shanghai, with a concentrated rollout of financial reforms and opening measures. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) introduced policies to improve short-term interest rate regulation, establish a repurchase facility for foreign central banks, and pilot offshore RMB foreign exchange trading in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. The National Financial Regulatory Administration will focus on mitigating systemic risks and eliminating regulatory blind spots. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will expand the scope of its fifth listing standard to include artificial intelligence, launch actively managed ETFs, support eligible Hong Kong-listed companies to list on the mainland, accelerate research on RMB foreign exchange futures, and support Hong Kong's upcoming launch of five-year RMB government bond futures. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will comprehensively reform cross-border policies for foreign direct investment, further simplify exchange controls for outbound direct investment and external debt, and issue new quotas for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with a unanimous 12-0 vote. The statement's most significant change was the complete removal of forward guidance and any language suggesting potential easing, with the text significantly shortened—marking a shift to a fully data-dependent policy framework. Economic projections showed the 2026 GDP growth forecast revised down to 2.2%, while core PCE inflation was raised to approximately 3.3%. The dot plot turned markedly hawkish, with the median rate projection for end-2026 rising to 3.8%; nine officials forecast at least one rate hike this year, while only one anticipated a cut. New Fed Chair Wash did not submit a personal dot plot. Markets interpreted the move as the end of the easing cycle, with significantly elevated odds of a rate hike this year. New Fed Chair Wash, in his first quarterly press conference, adjusted the Fed's communication framework by downplaying the weight of the dot plot and cautioning markets against overinterpreting individual officials' rate projections; he did not submit his own forecast. Wash stated that current high inflation is structurally supported by energy, tariffs, and housing—not temporary shocks—and that price stability remains the primary policy objective. He did not lock in a fixed rate path, emphasizing that rate decisions at every meeting remain bidirectional and that the Fed would not cut rates solely to boost growth. In the long term, AI-driven productivity gains may alleviate inflationary pressures after 2027, serving as the key precondition for future rate cuts. His overall tone was hawkish, further dampening market expectations for near-term rate cuts and pushing up the implied probability of year-end rate hikes. The United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding, which has taken effect. Iran has published the text of the interim agreement, with both sides pledging non-interference in each other's internal affairs and committing to negotiate a final, extendable agreement within 60 days. Iran pledged not to develop nuclear weapons, maintain the current scale of its nuclear program, and dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. The U.S. agreed not to impose new sanctions or increase military presence during the negotiation period, to lift maritime blockades within 30 days, immediately resume Iranian crude exports, and unfreeze its overseas assets, with mechanisms for fund usage to be negotiated later. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will resume immediately, with Iran jointly managing the waterway with Oman to ensure commercial vessel safety, waiving tolls temporarily and clearing navigational hazards. Both sides also agreed to develop an economic reconstruction program for Iran worth at least $300 billion, with details to be incorporated into the final agreement, potentially marking the largest diplomatic and economic breakthrough between the two nations in decades. U.S. President Trump said the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is likely to be signed soon, possibly on June 18 or 19. He emphasized that the memorandum is not a final agreement and warned that if the U.S. is dissatisfied with its implementation or if Iran "behaves improperly," the United States will resume military strikes. Regarding the $300 billion Iranian reconstruction fund, Trump said he would not prevent other countries from investing in Iran, but the U.S. would not invest. Trump also denied that the agreement includes "immediate lifting of sanctions" against Iran. China Macro & Policy The State Council issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Implementing the Employment-Priority Strategy," outlining the strategic direction, key objectives, major tasks, and policy measures for promoting high-quality and full employment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The plan deploys nine key tasks, including reinforcing the employment-priority orientation in macroeconomic policy. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke by phone with Iran's Foreign Minister Alireza Alaghzadeh, who briefed him on the first-phase U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Wang expressed China's welcome for the agreement and emphasized that the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz should be properly addressed to respond to international concerns. China supports Iran in improving relations with regional countries and exploring a joint framework for regional security architecture. The "Shanghai International Financial Center Development Action Plan for Offshore Finance" was released, supporting pilot initiatives for offshore finance in the Pudong New Area. The initial pilot businesses include offshore trade finance services, offshore bonds issued by free trade zone entities, offshore reinsurance, treasury operations by financial centers, offshore RMB foreign exchange trading, and financial services for non-resident individuals. The PBOC has authorized Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and CITIC Bank to conduct offshore RMB foreign exchange trading via the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The U.S. Department of Commerce has deferred listing several Chinese firms—including DeepSeek and a major chip manufacturer—on its entity list to avoid escalating tensions with China. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China firmly opposes the U.S. abuse of national security concepts and the use of entity lists and export controls to suppress Chinese enterprises. The U.S. should cease politicizing, instrumentalizing, and weaponizing trade and technology issues. China Equities Markets CSRC Chairman Wu Qing delivered a keynote speech at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, vowing to severely investigate and punish fraudulent practices under the guise of technology, including hype-driven speculation, market manipulation, and insider trading. The CSRC will issue guidelines to regulate the development of artificial intelligence in capital markets and crack down on illegal activities such as AI-driven stock recommendations, rumor-spreading, and unlawful trading. It will support compliant cross-border investment activities while enforcing strict penalties against cross-border violations. A-share markets rose modestly, with the SSE Index closing up 0.4% at 4,108.08, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.31%, the ChiNext Index up 1.56%, the Star 50 Index surging 4.69%, and the Wind All China Index up 0.87%. Trading volume reached 3.11 trillion yuan. Semiconductor supply chain stocks surged again, with PCB and glass substrate concepts hitting multiple limit-up closures; state-owned enterprises and lithium battery electrolyte sectors also strengthened. Consumer goods and coal stocks continued to underperform. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.74% at 24,312.16, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.22%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.17%. Semiconductor and large model stocks led gains, while automotive, consumer, and real estate stocks declined. Net selling by the Southbound Flow totaled 3.22 billion Hong Kong dollars; Alibaba and Tencent Holdings were heavily sold off, while China Jinmao Laminate Board received net buying of nearly 3.9 billion Hong Kong dollars. The nearly $500 billion ETF market is undergoing a landmark innovation. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges released guidelines for actively managed ETFs, setting regulatory thresholds on institutional qualifications, personnel standards, investment operations, disclosure, and risk controls. Industry insiders indicate the application channel for the first batch of pilot products is expected to open soon, with major fund houses already designing schemes and debugging systems in anticipation. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued two reforms for the STAR Market, providing detailed rules for artificial intelligence large model companies to qualify under the fifth listing standard, while also supporting "hard tech" enterprises in quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G to list on the STAR Market. On the evening of June 17, 72 A-share companies issued announcements warning of abnormal stock price fluctuations or market risks. Several firms addressed market hype surrounding storage chips, PCBs, glass substrates, MLCCs, optical fibers, and electronic fabrics, cautioning investors on potential overvaluation. The Asset Management Association of China released data showing that as of the end of May, the total net asset value of domestic public mutual funds reached 3.948 trillion yuan, up by approximately 122.8 billion yuan month-over-month—a new record high. The total scale of private funds stood at 23.53 trillion yuan as of the same date. The securities industry's commission rates continue to decline. Data from the Shanghai Securities Industry Association showed that in May, the average A-share commission rate in Shanghai (excluding high-frequency quantitative trading) fell to 1.73 basis points, down 3.4% month-over-month, hitting a new historical low. Amid rising trading volumes and falling prices, the commission price war has approached cost thresholds. China Industry News Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China is accelerating the establishment of a World Organization for Artificial Intelligence Cooperation and welcomes global participation to promote beneficial AI development. China will host the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and the High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance in Shanghai in July, where over 300 AI products will make their global debut. The State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft of "Ten Norms for Subsidy Practices by Food Delivery Platforms," stipulating that platforms must not use long-term, large-scale subsidies to exclude or restrict market competition or disrupt market order; must not compel merchants to participate in subsidy programs or bear subsidy costs; and must not sell below cost. Domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted at 24:00 on June 18. According to models from Zhuangchuang Information, gasoline and diesel prices are expected to fall by 475 yuan per ton, equivalent to reductions of 0.37 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.39 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.4 yuan per liter for 0# diesel. The State Drug Control Office decided to include 16 substances—including tilidine and difluoroethylimidate—under control to prevent and curb abuse, effective July 1. Illegally manufactured tilidine has been widely added to "uplifting e-cigarettes," primarily abused by teenagers and highly addictive. Fintech Wang Xin, director of the PBOC Research Bureau, said at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum that new payment tools should be explored cautiously and prudently, with close monitoring of stablecoins' impact on the international monetary system and cross-border payments. European Central Bank President Lagarde warned that the greatest risk of the AI revolution is not the technology itself, but its potential to amplify financial system vulnerabilities and trigger a new financial crisis. She called for a globally coordinated AI regulatory framework to prevent systemic risks from technological abuse. Corporate News & Updates Industry sources said ByteDance is negotiating with TianShu Intelligence to purchase at least 50,000 AI chips, primarily for inference work. If finalized, TianShu Intelligence would become ByteDance's third GPU supplier after Huawei and Cambricon. Apple is developing the second-generation iPhone Air, scheduled for release in spring 2027. The prototype adds a rear ultra-wide camera and focuses on improving battery life. The upgraded iPhone Air will feature a custom A20 Pro chip, with imaging and battery life identified as the two core upgrade areas. Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company plans to raise product prices to offset soaring memory and storage chip costs. Microsoft is considering integrating a fine-tuned version of the Chinese open-source model DeepSeek V4 into its enterprise AI tool Copilot Cowork as a lower-cost alternative to OpenAI and Anthropic models. Microsoft expects to finalize and announce its decision within weeks. BOE's 8.6-generation AMOLED production line has officially begun mass production. As China's first and the world's second to achieve mass production at this generation, the line has an investment of 63 billion yuan and a monthly capacity of 320,000 glass substrates. BMW Group significantly lowered its full-year 2026 guidance, reducing its automotive EBIT margin target from 4%-6% to 1%-3%, revising its full-year vehicle delivery forecast from "flat year-over-year" to a slight decline, and expecting a pre-tax profit drop exceeding 15%—far worse than its earlier forecast of a mild decline. According to data from the enterprise spending platform Ramp, Anthropic's share of enterprise AI subscription services rose to 41% in May, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, surpassing OpenAI's 39.5% for the first time. Global Macro & Policy "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos commented that the Fed's latest dot plot showed a clear hawkish tilt. Of 18 officials, nine expect at least one rate hike this year, with six anticipating multiple hikes. Only one official forecasts a rate cut. Meanwhile, the Fed's policy statement was comprehensively revised, with text length notably reduced. Overall, the communication framework has changed significantly, and market expectations for the rate path may be reset. U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month in May, far exceeding the 0.5% forecast and marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. Year-over-year growth reached 6.9%, the strongest since January 2023. Gas station sales rose 3.4% month-over-month and surged 26.5% year-over-year. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the existing-home sales index rose 3.8% month-over-month in May, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the largest monthly gain since September 2024. UK inflation in May held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, with a monthly increase of 0.2%, both below expectations, supporting the Bank of England's wait-and-see stance. Markets expect the Bank of England to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday. Japan's imports rose 12.5% year-over-year in May, the highest since January 2025; exports grew 17%, the fastest pace since November 2022, with semiconductor exports increasing 61.2%. Global Equity Markets U.S. major indices closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.98% to 51,492.55; the S&P 500 dropped 1.21% to 7,420.10; the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.34% to 26,021.66. Salesforce fell over 4%, Microsoft dropped more than 3%, leading losses on the Dow. The Wind US Magnificent Seven Index declined 2.4%, with Meta falling over 5% and Microsoft down more than 3%. SpaceX fell nearly 5%. The CSI China Dragon Index dropped 1.14%; Canadian Solar fell over 4%; Ke Holdings declined over 3%. Tech stocks led losses as Treasury yields surged. Several Fed officials signaled possible rate hikes to curb inflation, increasing investor uncertainty over monetary policy. European indices closed mixed: Germany's DAX rose 0.10% to 24,934.67; France's CAC 40 fell 0.20% to 8,430.79; the UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.14% to 10,508.61. Optimism from the U.S.-Iran MOU continued to support European risk appetite, but energy stocks declined due to falling oil prices, with overall market activity remaining cautious. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.72% at 69,902.25, extending its winning streak to five consecutive sessions and hitting a new record high. South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.58% to 8,864.24, also posting five straight gains and nearing its all-time high. India's S&P BSE SENSEX climbed 0.45% to 77,155.62. According to data from the Korea Securities Depository, on June 12, the day of SpaceX's listing, Korean retail investors net purchased $795.93 million (approximately 1.215 trillion won) of SpaceX stock—the largest single-day overseas stock purchase by Korean retail investors on record. Bonds The PBOC established a repurchase facility for foreign central banks, allowing foreign central banks, international financial institutions, and sovereign wealth funds to obtain RMB liquidity by pledging high-grade Chinese government bonds as collateral, facilitating RMB liquidity management and asset allocation for overseas institutional investors. The PBOC optimized its overnight repo and reverse repo tools, adjusting operation hours to 15:00–15:30 on business days, with rates set at 25 basis points below and above the 7-day reverse repo rate, respectively. Operations will be triggered when overnight interbank rates (DR001) persistently fall below or rise above these thresholds, based on primary dealer demand. Main interest rates in China's interbank bond market declined, with short- and medium-term maturities performing strongly, while the 30-year bond showed relative weakness. Treasury futures contracts rose collectively, with the 30-year contract up 0.23%. The PBOC conducted 420.3 billion yuan in reverse repos, net injecting 261.3 billion yuan, easing liquidity pressures in the interbank market. The People's Bank of China will issue 40 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong on June 22, with a six-month maturity. U.S. Treasury yields rose across most maturities: the 2-year yield climbed 13.90 basis points to 4.184%; the 3-year yield rose 12.34 basis points to 4.212%; the 5-year yield increased 10.08 basis points to 4.262%; the 10-year yield rose 5.34 basis points to 4.489%; the 30-year yield dipped 1.40 basis points to 4.929%. Commodities U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.35% to $75.01 per barrel; Brent crude dropped 0.38% to $78.66 per barrel. Rising expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, the imminent resumption of Iranian crude exports, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have increased global supply expectations. Iraq has restarted production at the West Qurna-2 field, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its oil demand forecast, warning of future oversupply and pressuring prices. International precious metals futures declined broadly: COMEX gold fell 1.79% to $4,276.30 per ounce; COMEX silver dropped 2.93% to $67.96 per ounce. The Fed's fourth consecutive pause on rate hikes, combined with a shift to a neutral-hawkish stance, coupled with reduced geopolitical risk premiums from easing U.S.-Iran tensions, left insufficient fundamental support to offset bearish pressure. Base metals on the LME rose across the board: LME zinc gained 1.19% to $3,611.50 per ton; LME aluminum rose 1.06% to $3,424.50 per ton; LME tin climbed 0.68% to $55,500 per ton; LME nickel rose 0.49% to $18,085 per ton; LME copper increased 0.44% to $13,835 per ton; LME lead rose 0.15% to $1,985 per ton. The London Metal Exchange (LME) stated that over the past year, no Russian-origin cobalt or copper has been delivered into any LME-certified warehouse within the European Union. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest monthly report, forecasting global oil demand to decrease by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, revising down from its prior estimate of 420,000 barrels per day. Global oil supply is expected to decline by 3.9 million barrels per day this year, but increase by 8 million barrels per day in 2027. Next year, global oil demand is projected to rise by 2 million barrels per day, suggesting a potential supply surplus. FX & Currency Markets On Wednesday, the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 6.7569, up 5 basis points from the previous close, with the overnight session ending at 6.7630. The PBOC's official mid-rate was set at 6.8096, up 12 basis points from the previous day. At New York close, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.87% to 100.38, with most non-U.S. currencies declining. The euro fell 0.91% to 1.1502 against the dollar; the pound dropped 0.97% to 1.3297; the Australian dollar declined 0.74% to 0.7014; the dollar rose 0.11% to 160.6445 against the yen; the dollar gained 0.76% to 1.4101 against the Canadian dollar; the dollar climbed 0.84% to 0.7998 against the Swiss franc; the offshore RMB fell 190 basis points to 6.7760 against the dollar. Key Economic Events 02:00 EDT, Jun 18: Switzerland May Trade Balance 02:00 EDT, Jun 18: UK May Unemployment Rate 04:00 EDT, Jun 18: Italy Q1 Unemployment Rate 04:00 EDT, Jun 18: Euro Area April Seasonally Adjusted Current Account 05:00 EDT, Jun 18: Euro Area April Construction Output 08:30 EDT, Jun 18: Canada May Industrial Products Price Index 08:30 EDT, Jun 18: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 08:30 EDT, Jun 18: US June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 10:00 EDT, Jun 18: US May Conference Board Leading Indicators 10:30 EDT, Jun 18: US Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories 01:00 EDT, Jun 19: US Weekly Oil Drilling Rig Count through Jun 19 04:30 EDT, Jun 19: Weekly Foreign Central Bank Holdings of US Treasuries 05:00 EDT, Jun 19: Korea May PPI 21:20 EDT, Jun 17: The People's Bank of China has CNY 188.5 billion in reverse repurchase agreements maturing 02:30 EDT, Jun 18: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas announces interest rate decision 03:00 EDT, Jun 18: ECB Governing Council member Koechel speaks 03:20 EDT, Jun 18: Bank of Indonesia announces interest rate decision 03:30 EDT, Jun 18: Swiss National Bank announces interest rate decision 04:00 EDT, Jun 18: SNB President Schlegel holds press conference 04:00 EDT, Jun 18: Norges Bank announces interest rate decision 07:00 EDT, Jun 18: Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes 07:00 EDT, Jun 18: National Bank of Ukraine announces interest rate decision 08:15 EDT, Jun 18: ECB Chief Economist Lane participates in a session titled "Monetary Policy Making in an Uncertain Environment" The first four commercial real estate REITs will be officially listed on Jun 18 Domestic refined oil prices will open a new adjustment window CAAM will host the "2026 International Automotive and Supply Chain Expo (Hong Kong)" from Jun 18 to 22 Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, commodity futures markets will not conduct night trading

Messi hits 16 World Cup goals to tie Klose at No. 1, plays 200th Argentina match and sixth tournament. Signed jersey auctions at CNY 25k on Dewu but attracts zero bidders. #WorldCup #FootballCommunity

GOLDMAN CUTS OIL OUTLOOK: Sees Persian Gulf exports back to pre-war levels by end-July. Lowers 2026Q4 Brent to $80 (from $90), 2027 avg to $75 (from $80); WTI 2026Q4 $75, 2027 $70. Stronger demand to support resilience despite surpluses.

Brent falls >1% to $78.10/bbl (new low since Mar 3); WTI slips >1% to $74.46/bbl (low since Mar 4). #EnergyMarkets

Wall Street mostly forecasts rate hold this week. Hold camp dominates (Moody’s, JPM, Nomura); dovish voices eye 2027 cuts (Goldman, Citi); hawks flag hike risks (Capital Economics, PGIM). Focus on guidance shift and signals. #fed #rate

Major Asian markets including A-shares, Hong Kong, and China's Taiwan stocks will observe a holiday closure on Friday, June 19, for Dragon Boat Festival. US equities will also shut for Juneteenth. US after-hours sessions are cancelled from 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM Beijing time that day. #market #stock

Qatar redirects LNG tankers to Ras Laffan as Hormuz Strait nears reopening post US-Iran deal. First empty vessels sent since February war — clear sign of ramped-up export plans. #Qatar #LNG #hormuz_strait

Ship-tracking data from Tanker Trackers shows that a third Iranian National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) oil tanker has departed the blockade area, loaded with 1 million barrels of crude. #oil #EnergyMarkets