YOLFT

Our algorithm predicts there is 38% chance of Keiko Fujimori wins the Presidential Election. #peruelection

Our algorithm understands despite the narrative, the deal of this kind is highly complex and will not happen in 2 meetings. Last time it happened took 20 months of intense negotiation with the Obama Administration... $SPY $Oil

Our algorithm now is giving 41% to a permanent peace deal. You can see a clear arbitrage if you wish to use it. $SPY $OIL

Look at this, our algo predicted the Lebanon ceasefire a day before it happened. #Lebanon #IranWar‌

Our predictions: 1. We will see more AGI linked posts in the coming weeks/months to sustain valuations. 2. The goals of war have not been achieved so there will likely no permanent peace deal until a few months. Ceasefire will remain for majority period. 3. Markets $SPY are stable for now but will not remain under AI infra spending and private credit pressure. 4. Top 2 AI companies will be way smaller in size by next year latest. Warren Buffet is buying a Pizza company and sitting on cash so you do too.

You can make predictions on anything with math and AI without the need of humans trading the market.

@WatcherGuru Elon Musk believed DOGE will reduce the deficit by ... tn. What was the number?

JUST IN: Elon Musk says universal high income from the Federal government "is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI." "AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will not be inflation."

@mil000 Release doesn't mean what it used to

They’ve released this thing like 8 times so far

@altryne @dwarkesh_sp Pods are so PR driven. A slightest inconvenient moment to the guests becomes a headline

hey @dwarkesh_sp was this pic taken before or after the pod?

@Andr3jH Indian origin guy fighting with Taiwanese origin founder over currently MAGA America's AI future

Dwarkesh will be stuffed into a black van in the mission district and wake up in Beijing to this view

@LeadingReport Didn't they agree to it before the war?

President Trump says Iran has agreed not to have a nuke.

@kober1337 you are not wrong

The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets Market makers don't predict the future. They just stand on the other side of your optimism and collect. I found the data to prove it: > YES contracts underperform NO contracts by up to 64 percentage points at the same price. > People love buying cheap YES contracts. Makers just take the other side and profit. > Makers earn +1.12% per trade. Takers lose -1.12%. > Finance markets are almost fair. Sports and Entertainment? Takers get destroyed. > Before 2024 regular users were actually winning. Then professionals arrived and flipped everything.

@mdudas what is the asset & income bifurcation between all these categories?

truly sad, completely out of ideas

our new handle name @YolftPI

@MorePerfectUS founders of both the platforms won't lose. that is for sure

NEW: Prediction markets are scamming the working class. Polymarket and Kalshi claim they are "democratizing finance," but their business model enables a handful of elites to fleece their customers. On Polymarket just 0.04% of traders capture 70% of the profits.

@trylimitless he will be transported to mars by his not fanbase

Tom Lee just predicted that Ethereum will hit $60,000 this year. "I'm moving to North Korea if I'm wrong"

@cthrin No wonder warren buffet made money with no trading

We said you could trade on everything. Now trade on your lived experience. I can see the effects of geopolitical moves on oil, lithium, cattle, coffee and more - every day. What about you?

@minchoi Is it a paid post?

Anthropic is turning down VC offers at an $800B valuation. Their revenue hit $30B by end of March. Up from $9B at end of 2025. 3x in one quarter. 🤯

Prediction markets have low volume, wash volume problem. Their predictions are not accurate until they actually happen. $SPY $BTC #Sports

Anyone thinking war is over without strategic gains is grossly mistaken.