bm
7 posts
QUANTITATIVE SPORTS TRADING
here's how it actually works:
bookmakers set lines based on public perception, not true probability. they shade odds toward what the crowd bets, not toward what's accurate. that gap = alpha
quant shops exploit this with:
here's what the actual toolkit looks like:
dixon-coles model for soccer - poisson regression that corrects for low-scoring bias and home advantage. predicts exact scorelines, not just outcomes
nba: regularized adjusted plus-minus (rapm) to isolate individual player impact, then delta from public lines
nfl: expected points added (epa) per play as base signal, layered with weather, oline rank, dvoa
for all sports: closing line value (clv) as the core performance metric. if you're beating the closing line consistently - you have real edge. period.
line movement algo: classify sharp vs square action by timing + volume patterns. fade public, follow sharp
sports betting market is ~$250B globally. maybe 1-2% of that is systematic/quant. for comparison, equity markets are 80%+ algorithmic. you see the gap
been using @prob_trade as my terminal - It has excellent functionality for trading sporting events
most people in this space are still betting on vibes
that's exactly why there's money to be made here
English
Bookmaker in London got an alert on his terminal. Someone just placed $4.5 million on Arsenal to win. One bet. One match.
He called his floor manager. In 14 years I've never seen a single position this size on a football match.
Manager pulled up the wallet. Freshly created. One month old. No history. No track record.
majorexploiter. $3,668,541 profit. 3 predictions. Joined February 2026.
Three predictions. That's not a typo. Three.
Arsenal to win March 1? YES at 65 cents. Put in $4,532,049. Walked away with $6,949,024. Profit: $2,416,975. One game.
Three bets. Three wins. $3.67 million profit. Account closed. Positions: $0.00.
Gone.
The floor manager ran the numbers three times. Then sat down.
$4.5 million on a single football match is not a bet. It's a statement.
Who creates a wallet. Deposits millions. Places three bets on three football matches. Wins all three. And disappears.
The username tells you everything: majorexploiter.
Not a trader. Not a gambler. Someone who saw three outcomes before they happened. Walked in. Collected. Walked out.
$3.67 million in 30 days. Then nothing. Wallet empty. Zero active positions.
Most wallets on the platform need months and thousands of trades to cross a million.
This one did it in three clicks.
The bookmaker told his manager: I've seen whales. I've seen insiders. I've never seen someone walk in with this much conviction on football and leave without placing a fourth bet.
Manager: Maybe three was all he needed.
Wallet still exists. Balance: $0.00. Three green lines. $3.67 million. Gone.
Some people trade for a living. This one traded three times and left.
English
Two years ago one guy won $579K on sports betting and wrote a detailed thread about how he did it.
His model was completely public: formulas entry logic match selection criteria.
Hundreds of people copied the approach and started trading using his system.
3 months later the edge completely disappeared bookmakers adapted lines started moving faster windows closed.
Everyone who copied lost their deposits.
He himself hasn't shown his profile to anyone since and doesn't write publicly about his bets.
This is a standard story in the world of sports betting: any advantage dies the moment the crowd finds out about it.
Yesterday I found a wallet that contradicts everything I know about this market.
> $4M+ in pure profit in 14 days.
This wallet doesn't know how to lose: @432614799197?via=roovxKu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@432614799197?…
The profile is completely public every position every entry every exit visible to anyone with internet.
He absolutely doesn't care that you're watching.
The first thing that catches your eye when you open the stats the numbers just don't match reality.
The most profitable sports models in the world the ones that feed professional syndicates in Vegas give 54-57% accuracy.
That's the ceiling. That's the edge. That's enough to live off betting for decades.
> This wallet has 1207 closed positions in two weeks of trading.
I scrolled through every one.
Won. Won. Won. Won. Won.
Scroll further.
Won. Won. Won. Won.
All the way to the end of the list.
> Zero losses.
Not 90%. Not 99%.
Zero.
This is not betting in the sense we understand the word betting by definition assumes you sometimes lose.
Then what am I even looking at?
I open his largest closed trade to understand the scale.
> Bills vs. Jaguars NFL playoff final.
> Entry: $1.13M. Exit: $2.45M+.
> Pure profit of $1.32M+ from one football game.
And the most interesting part this wasn't even a simple bet on the winner where you just need to guess who wins.
This was point spread: Bills -3.5.
To take the money he needed Bills to not just win but win by at least four points.
Not guess the match outcome guess by exactly what margin the game ends.
And he bet over a million dollars on it.
I scroll through the rest of the closed positions and see the same pattern.
> Packers vs. Bears invested $781K took $1.79M+ pure profit over a million.
> Stade Rennais FC 1901 invested $602K took $1.56M+ pure profit $964K.
> Patriots spread -3.5 invested $600K took $1.27M+ pure profit $675K.
> Rams spread -3.5 invested $613K took $1.25M pure profit $641K.
Every position hundreds of thousands of dollars on the line.
Every one closed in profit.
I start looking for any pattern in his match selection trying to understand the logic.
> NFL American football.
> NBA basketball.
> NHL hockey.
> Premier League English football.
> Bundesliga German football.
> La Liga Spanish football.
> Ligue 1 French football.
> Serie A Italian football.
He doesn't focus on one league and doesn't specialize in one sport.
This completely kills the insider information theory it's physically impossible to have reliable sources simultaneously in all professional leagues in the world.
I look at the timing of his entries when exactly he opens positions relative to match start.
> Average entry price in his positions: 35-50 cents per share.
> Price of the same positions at match start: 70-85 cents.
He consistently enters when the price is still low hours sometimes a day before the main mass of players starts loading money in the same direction.
Two possible explanations.
1. He somehow knows match results in advance.
2. He sees something in publicly available data that hundreds of thousands of other people looking at the same matches don't see.
I can't think of a third option.
> The fattest win in the wallet's history: $1.32M+ pure profit from one position.
That's more than most people will earn in their entire lives.
He did it in three hours while a football game was on.
I look at current open positions he didn't stop and didn't withdraw the money.
> Right now he has $4.2 million in active bets.
And all of them are already in profit even before closing.
> Spread: Indiana -7.5 entered at 50 cents now price 100 cents profit +100%.
> Sharks vs. Lightning entered at 73 cents now price 100 cents profit +37%.
> Wild vs. Maple Leafs entered at 50 cents now price 100 cents profit +100%.
> Tottenham win entered at 35 cents now price 100 cents profit +185%.
He didn't just not stop he's accelerating and increasing position size every day.
> 64 thousand people are already watching this profile right now.
People are trying to copy his trades in real time.
They can't keep up.
By the time a new position appears in the public profile the price is already completely different because his entry itself moves the market.
He doesn't hide and doesn't conceal trades because speed is his protection from copying.
English
attendez c’est une plaisanterie ? Ostapenko 3,40 face à un nouveau-né ? @bookmakers
Camille@tenniscamfr
@ksissoko9 @dodshka Yo Kaly ca tombe bien je voulais connaître ton avis sur ça
Français
anyone have any good trading book recommendations ?
im gonna make a thread with a few
im looking for some new stuff to read so please comment
English
