Spencer Barber@spencertbarber
Our economy is quickly splitting into two.
The haves and the have-nots.
A friend wants to develop his grandparent's land in UT.
Spending some time on the numbers, it's evident that only two products will work.
Here is a breakdown of the two products.
I either need very dense and small homes or very large estate lots with 5000+ sq ft homes.
Anything in between doesn't pencil.
The middle class, over the last 10 years, has slowly been priced out of the previous middle-class lifestyle.
The small homes would need to be 1800 sq ft and sell for 475K.
To hit those numbers, I would need to build the home with low-quality finishes.
My margins would likely be below 20%.
In Utah, the median household income is $87,000.
If a buyer puts 10% down (50K), their mortgage would be $3250. That would mean 45% of their income would go towards their mortgage.
On the other hand there is a growing segment of high earners that want the very best for their home.
In my county, a new 4000-5000 sq ft home will go for 1.3-1.5 million
I've watched homes priced over 1 million in my county go very fast.
These are bought by people who are either in high-paying jobs or business owners.
In today's economy, there are opportunities for people who hustle to make well over 300,000 a year. We also have many people who have migrated to our growing tech industry on that higher income level with a dual income.
With a 20% down payment, if you’re buying a home for 1.4M, your payment will be $8150.
At $300,000 of household income, it's very attainable.
As a builder, I can build that home for $900,000, giving myself a 35% margin.
It's obvious to me that developers will build homes that fit one of these two groups.
In my humble opinion, I think this puts us on a crash course as a society. As we lose the middle class, resentment will continue to grow.