OpenMacro

If the war continues, the US will have an inflationary crisis. US inflation is back. Headline CPI jumped to 3.3% YoY (from 2.4%) with a +0.9% MoM spike. What’s driving it: 1. • Energy shock: +10.9% MoM 2. • Gasoline: +21% 3. • Core still sticky (~2.6%) 4. • Inflation expectations rising (3.4%) If oil stays elevated (geopolitics, Hormuz), inflation stays above target → the Fed stays trapped. Full breakdown; app.openmacro.ai/insights/us-in…

JUST IN 🚨: S&P 500 hits 7,200 for the first time in history 📈🥳🫂

JUST IN: S&P 500 reaches new all-time high of 7,200

@robin_j_brooks "Reason Japan's official FX intervention never works is because MoF and BoJ cancel each other out. The MoF buys Yen to strengthen it (black), but the BoJ at the same time is buying JGBs (blue), which weakens the Yen. Japan plays chess against itself..."

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Tucker Carlson says President Trump would rather "run the world" than improve America.

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Debt U.S. Debt now exceeds 100% of GDP for the first time since World War 2 🤯👀

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senate unanimously passes resolution banning members from trading on prediction markets.

Brazil is winning the 2026 oil shock. 🇧🇷 While most economies are hit by higher energy prices, Brazil is benefiting: • Higher oil exports → larger trade surplus • Stronger BRL → better external stability • Improved current account dynamics • Rising fiscal revenues & investment Low-cost pre-salt production is turning a global shock into a macro tailwind. This is what commodity power looks like. Full breakdown ↓ app.openmacro.ai/insights/how-t…

Japan’s macro picture is simply unsustainable: massive debt (>250% of GDP), rising inflation, and still ultra-low rates againts other developed countries Interest rate differentials are too low to attract demand for JGBs, especially from abroad. With yields creeping up and no strong foreign demand, the BoJ is effectively trapped

Very proud of the last two weeks. For the first time, retail investors are accessing institutional-grade strategies through our quantitative models. Since the war began, we’ve only had one negative week. This is what systematic macro looks like. Access the platform: app.openmacro.ai

China is breaking from within; • ~80M empty homes • Property prices ~40% below peaks • 31 straight months of declines • Youth unemployment ~16–19% • Fertility ~1.0 Real estate was ~25–30% of the economy — now a multi-year drag Deflation, debt, overcapacity, weak confidence. Not a cycle. A structural slowdown. Full breakdown: app.openmacro.ai/insights/china…

@KobeissiLetter If you don’t understand why this is happening: Iran is completely dependent on oil exports. Cut those → FX collapses → inflation explodes → war financing breaks. That’s not pressure. That’s systemic collapse.

BREAKING: Iranian state media warns of "unprecedented military action" if US seizures of Iranian-linked vessels continues. Last night, WSJ reported that President Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an "extended blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices are nearing $114/barrel.

This is how slowdowns actually show up. Not layoffs, but hiring just… stops. Higher oil works like a hidden tax, squeezing margins and consumer spending at the same time. Companies don’t panic fire, they quietly freeze expansion plans. That’s why the data lags reality. The real risk is accumulation. 10k fewer jobs a month doesn’t shock the system, but over time it erodes momentum. By the time layoffs hit, the slowdown is already locked in.

Goldman Sachs warns that the current oil shock, driven by the conflict in Iran, could reduce US job growth by approximately 10,000 positions per month for the rest of 2026, primarily through reduced hiring rather than mass layoffs.

At that level the currency isn’t just weak, it’s losing function. When FX collapses this far, people stop treating it as a store of value and start treating it as something to exit as fast as possible. That shifts the economy into survival mode. Dollarization rises, inflation feeds on itself, and policy tools lose effectiveness because confidence is already broken. The real signal isn’t the exchange rate, it’s trust. Once that goes, stabilizing the currency becomes political, not just economic.

IRAN'S CURRENCY DROPS TO RECORD LOW LEVEL OF 1.8 MILLION RIAL TO THE U.S. DOLLAR - ISNA

Calling it a “peak signal” ignores the structure. MSTR isn’t a passive holder, it’s a leveraged proxy with reflexivity built in.When BTC rises, their equity premium expands, they raise capital, buy more BTC, and reinforce the move. When it reverses, that loop works in the opposite direction and downside accelerates.The real question isn’t whether $100k was a top, it’s whether the financing window stays open. If it does, the bid persists longer than fundamentals suggest. If it shuts, the unwind isn’t gradual, it’s mechanical.

LATEST: ⚡ Bloomberg's Mike McGlone says Michael Saylor "double dog dared the market gods" by doubling down on Bitcoin after it hit $100K, calling it a "classic peak sign" and saying MSTR has "a lot more downside."

Moves like this are less about justice and more about control under stress. In conflict, internal signaling matters as much as external deterrence, and harsh actions are often used to tighten domestic discipline and project strength. The second order effect is isolation. It hardens international stance, reduces room for negotiation, and makes any de escalation politically costlier on all sides. When internal control and external pressure rise together, conflicts tend to extend, not resolve.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 UN says Iran has executed at least 21 people since the start of the war.

This is what energy fragmentation looks like in real time. Once pipeline flows become political, geography stops being an advantage and turns into a constraint. Germany shifting routes isn’t just logistics, it’s higher costs, longer supply chains, and less reliability. That feeds directly into industrial competitiveness, especially for energy intensive sectors. The bigger shift is structural. Europe isn’t just diversifying supply, it’s paying a permanent premium for security. Cheap, stable energy was the foundation of its manufacturing edge. That assumption is now broken.

Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows zerohedge.com/markets/german…

“Last presser” matters less for sentiment and more for incentives. A departing Fed chair has less need to manage market expectations and more freedom to defend their policy legacy. If inflation isn’t convincingly dead, he’s more likely to err on the side of credibility over market comfort. That means higher for longer messaging can stick even if growth shows cracks. The real shift isn’t the speech, it’s the reaction function. Markets used to trade what Powell might do next. Now they have to price a transition where the next chair inherits the consequences, not the promises.

🇺🇸 Today, Jerome Powell will deliver his last FOMC press conference as Federal Reserve Chair.

Public opinion doesn’t end wars, it reprices them. When a majority expects a prolonged conflict, policymakers get more room to extend timelines without immediate backlash. That expectation then feeds back into markets. Energy stays bid, defense spending gets normalized, and risk premiums stop fading because “temporary” is no longer the base case. The shift isn’t sentiment, it’s time horizon. Once people anchor to long conflict, everything from policy to pricing adjusts to persistence, not resolution.

Most Americans Expect Prolonged Conflict With Iran zerohedge.com/political/most…

Not exiting OPEC+ isn’t loyalty, it’s leverage. As long as Russia stays inside the cartel, it influences supply coordination while still selling barrels through alternative channels. Leaving would mean losing price influence for volume. Staying means shaping the price floor while routing around sanctions. In a tight market, that optionality is more valuable than maximizing output. This keeps oil structurally bid because one of the largest producers is aligned with managed supply, not free market supply.

KREMLIN: RUSSIA IS NOT GOING TO EXIT OPEC+