sonicwave
8.6K posts

sonicwave
@sonicwave
Ad-hoc objective fact based gibberish on the Market. Nothing I post is financial advice. For entertainment and educational purposes only. Do your own research.
加入时间 Aralık 2008
472 关注483 粉丝

@TheSwingTraderr I found this similar phenomena but never saw folks post about it; very nice analysis! I sorta look at things very similarly to how you do but think you've done a very, nice job packaging everything together. Wonderful analysis! Keep it up!
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@zerohedge And they managed to award hundreds of millions in stock options to execs, how do these people sleep at night
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sonicwave 已转推

Apocalyptic oil forecasts of $150 or $200 assume either very low price elasticities of demand - not backed up in the academic literature - or catastrophic escalation of the war back to near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday was a reminder...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil…

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$SPY Inverse Head & Shoulders forming at support
With yesterday’s close, $SPY is shaping a potential inverse head & shoulders pattern. The “head” came from the false breakdown, while the shoulders are forming around current support.
The right shoulder hasn’t fully formed yet but if it does, it could trigger a bounce toward the 680 area.
A break below this key support level would invalidate the setup.

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Update on my VIX divergence post from Friday 👇
$VIX dropped to 25.59 today. $SPX up 1.44% to 6,600.
Fear faded while prices were at lows — exactly the divergence signal.
Still watching the Iran 5-day ceasefire closely. Not out of woods yet 👀
$SPY $SOX
Not financial advice
sonicwave@sonicwave
VIX divergence forming — fear fading as S&P hits lows. But Kharg Island ground op still on the table. 82nd Airborne on standby. Oil at $112. Divergence could unwind fast if escalation surprises markets. Stay alert. 👀 $VIX $SPX #Oil #OOTT Not financial advice.
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$VIX
Golden cross in full effect
A retest of the 50Dma seems to be a logical expectation and then go from there

sonicwave@sonicwave
$VIX On Mar 4th or so, the VIX 50Dma cross above the 200Dma which also appears to be "nudging" higher but may need more time to confirm Could be a golden cross!
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@OmerCheeema Isn't it better to retain the employees, they can go work for potential new entrants aka Tesla and provide them with solid euv workers
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I live in Eindhoven, ASML town. Heard this from folks inside...
Over the years ASML promoted a lot of strong EUV people into architect roles, group leads, management tracks. Built up serious layers. Classic growth pain.
Then McKinsey comes in , says cut the management layers to speed things up. So now those same high performers, real good EUV experts, who got promoted are the ones on the block. About 3400 roles targeted, mostly management. Half will be reassigned, rest gone. Big hit in Veldhoven/Eindhoven area (~1400), some in US. Unncertainty is high, unions talking, details probably land around April.
At the same time, ASML is still planning massive growth. The new campus near the airport just got final green light from city council. Construction starts soon, phased build-out. Long term they talk ~20,000 new jobs in the region (first wave ~5k by 2028).
And the layoff packages are subpar. Philips is also based in the same town. And they had layoffs due to serious financial issues last year. Their layoff packages were much better than what ASML is offering. What a way to kill tje company culture. Especially at a time when the company is printing money.
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