Islamabad is the only number that matters this weekend, and CPI just gave the Fed a marginal reprieve without solving anything. Core came in at +0.2% m/m against a +0.3% consensus, but headline jumped to 3.3% Y/Y from 2.4% in February. The energy shock is now firmly in the data, and the Strait of Hormuz remains at 8% of normal flow. Markets are pricing a deal. The underlying reality is considerably messier.
Full breakdown, link in comments below 👇
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