Heard on Bloomberg podcast: “Wars spiral out of control even if they are meant to be contained. This is a historical fact.”
WOW.
This is the most dangerous statement I’ve seen from any media. And it’s false.
Do NOT believe the media when they assure you Iran can’t be contained.
Yes, there is always a chance of escalation, but ZERO U.S. Merchant Marine ships have been deployed with the heavy Army equipment required for a long war.
And historical precedent backs this up:
Gulf War was tightly bounded by political objectives. Coalition forces stopped after liberating Kuwait instead of marching to Baghdad, preventing mission creep.
Operation Praying Mantis delivered a decisive blow to Iranian naval forces in a single day and then stopped.
Operation El Dorado Canyon was a calibrated punitive strike with clear signaling. It hit targets, sent a message, and ended without spiraling into sustained conflict.
Operation Urgent Fury was rapid and limited. Objectives were achieved in days and forces withdrew without expanding the fight.
Operation Just Cause removed Noriega quickly and avoided regional spillover, demonstrating a short, decisive regime-change operation that didn’t widen.
Operation Desert Fox was a four-day strike campaign designed to degrade capabilities without triggering a broader war.
Operation Infinite Reach was a discrete retaliatory action. Limited targets, no escalation ladder climbed afterward.
Operation Odyssey Dawn was constrained to air and maritime operations with a quick transition to NATO, avoiding a large U.S. ground war.
Operation Earnest Will protected shipping under fire while carefully managing rules of engagement to prevent a full-scale U.S.-Iran war.
Operation Allied Force achieved political aims through an air campaign while avoiding a ground invasion and limiting spillover beyond the Balkans.
Operation Deliberate Force was a short, focused use of force that pushed parties to negotiations rather than widening the conflict.
And it’s not just American operations.
The Falklands War remained geographically and politically contained, with neither side expanding the war beyond the islands or targeting the homeland directly.
Kargil War stayed limited even between two nuclear powers. Both sides kept operations confined and avoided broader mobilization or escalation.
The Sino-Indian War of 1962 was sharp, decisive, and brief. China declared a ceasefire and withdrew rather than escalating into prolonged regional conflict.
The Six-Day War was intense but tightly bounded in time and scope, ending in under a week without spiraling into superpower confrontation.
AND don’t let the media trap you into the “boots on the ground means long war” fallacy. The USMC is historically an expeditionary raiding force that removes the necessity for long-war Army occupation.
The Battle of Derna was a small, expeditionary strike deep on hostile shores, seizing a port to force leverage in negotiations without expanding into a wider regional war.
The Banana Wars featured repeated, limited amphibious landings and withdrawals designed to stabilize specific crises rather than escalate into interstate conflict.
The United States occupation of Veracruz was a sharp, time-bound seizure of a key port that applied pressure without triggering full-scale war with Mexico.
The Lebanon Crisis of 1958 saw Marines land, stabilize the situation, and withdraw. Clear objectives, no escalation beyond the immediate crisis.
The Mayaguez incident was a rapid punitive rescue mission against Khmer Rouge forces that ended once the objective was achieved.
Operation Eagle Claw was conceived as a limited raid. High-risk but tightly scoped, not a broader invasion.
Operation Eastern Exit involved Marines securing and evacuating personnel quickly, then leaving without expanding the conflict.
Operation United Shield was a controlled, expeditionary extraction under threat, executed without escalation.
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