Every day that passes, Iran gains greater leverage. This is becoming increasingly clear after the recent statements made by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser that approximately 1 Billion barrels of oil have taken off the markets as a result of this conflict. When the United States decided to impose the blockade of Iran, it did so not intending for it to be employed as a long-term tool, but a short-term hammer. 13 Days. But now, as it becomes clear to all that the blockade is not producing the effects it needs fast enough, the table has now flipped on the United States. In a best-case scenario (from a US standpoint), Iran can last ~45 days before they are forced to shut-in their oil wells at any appreciable scale. This likely would be extended to ~60 days with additional measures being taken. Unfortunately, the world does not have this luxury. Right now, the world is losing ~13M barrels per day. Multiplied by 2 months, that is another 780M barrels... on top of the 1B already lost per Saudi Aramco (...pretty reliable source). In addition to this, the fertilizer crisis is far more severe in my opinion. Demand destruction, emergency measures, and the like can be taken to at least somewhat counter the dearth of energy supplies, but fertilizer? That will cause food shortages. Allow me to let you in on a little secret: You can't just "not eat" to create demand destruction for global food supply. Washington now is realizing how severe this global catastrophe is becoming, but they are now left without viable avenues to success. And every day that passes? The global catastrophe gets more severe... and Iran gains more leverage.