Juan أُعيد تغريده
Juan
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
As expect continued big increases in US gasoline prices as WTI stays in high $90s with no apparent end in US/Iran war.
Don't forget US national average gas prices had risen for 7 consecutive weeks prior to US attacking Iran.
Reminder oil prices are the biggest factor for gasoline prices.
Apart from the oil prices, reminder is that US gasoline prices seasonally increase normally starting in Feb thru mid June driven in part by refiners switching to higher cost summer blend gasoline.
AAA average gasoline prices posted early morning on Mar 21.
National average has 10th consecutive weekly increase at +$0.25 WoW to $3.93, +$0.99 MoM, +$0.80 YoY. Now +$0.95 vs $2.98 when US attacked Iran.
California average +$0.22 WoW to $5.70, +$1.09 MoM and +$1.05 YoY. Now +$1.09 vs $4.61 when US attacked Iran.
Thx @AAAnews
#oott
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
Juan أُعيد تغريده
Juan أُعيد تغريده
Juan أُعيد تغريده
Juan أُعيد تغريده
The perfect tribute. x.com/i/status/20350…
ZeR° DaRK@_ZeR0DaRK_
Marco Rubio realizing he’s Chuck Norris now.
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
BREAKING. The United States has 5,000 Marines heading toward an island whose oil terminals it has refused to touch. The President is reviewing seizure plans. Israel’s defense minister says strikes will increase significantly this week. Two carrier strike groups and two amphibious ready groups are converging on the Gulf. And every oil terminal on Kharg Island, the facility that loads 90 percent of Iranian crude, is still standing. Three weeks of the most intensive aerial campaign since Iraq 2003 and not a single oil loading point has been struck on the island that funds the enemy. That is not an oversight. That is the tell.
Ninety military targets on Kharg were destroyed on March 13. Radar, missile batteries, command posts, naval positions. Everything that defends the island was hit. Everything that generates revenue was left standing. Trump said decency. But today he told the world America does not need Hormuz and that China, Europe, Japan and Korea will have to get involved. A president who spares oil terminals out of decency does not then tell the countries that need them to fend for themselves. The restraint has a different name.
Iran has stated the explanation publicly. If the United States attacks or seizes Iranian oil infrastructure, Iran will immediately destroy US-allied energy assets across the Persian Gulf. Saudi refineries. Qatari LNG terminals. Kuwaiti export facilities. Iranian military officials called it a pile of ashes. This is not a negotiating position. It is a doctrine of mutually assured economic annihilation. Touch our oil and we burn yours.
The US says it has degraded Iranian missile capacity by 90 percent. That leaves 10 percent. Ten percent of the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East is still hundreds of weapons. Iran has launched strikes every night of this war. It hit Ras Laffan in Qatar this week. It hit Mina Al-Ahmadi in Kuwait twice. It fired intermediate-range missiles at Diego Garcia, 4,000 kilometres from Iranian soil. A cluster munition from an Iranian ballistic missile hit a daycare in central Israel this morning. The 90 percent figure was supposed to mean victory. The nightly launches mean it does not.
This is the trap that has no name yet. Seize Kharg and Iran detonates the terminals remotely, denying the asset to both sides. Blockade Kharg and Iran retaliates against Saudi and Qatari loading facilities, removing their exports from the global market. Leave Kharg alone and Iran continues funding the IRGC from crude revenue that pays for the missiles, the drones, and the sealed operational packets distributed to provincial commanders. Negotiate and you are negotiating with a regime whose supreme leader was killed on day one, whose successor has not been seen in 12 days, and whose intelligence minister was assassinated this week.
In 1991, retreating Iraqi forces torched 600 Kuwaiti oil wells. Kharg’s terminals are not wells. They are loading infrastructure connected to subsea pipelines whose destruction removes export capacity for years. The threat is credible because this regime has spent three weeks demonstrating it prioritises survival over revenue.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have modelled full Kharg disruption at $150 or higher per barrel. Dubai crude already hit $166 this week. If 5,000 Marines land on an island rigged for self-denial, the price ceiling ceases to exist because no model accounts for a scenario where the defender and the attacker both want the same asset destroyed.
The island is 25 kilometres long. The trap has no exit.
Full analysis:
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
JUST IN: Hours after President Trump said “I’m not putting troops anywhere,” Axios reported the administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island. Kharg processes 90 percent of Iranian oil exports. The contradiction is not a contradiction. It is the strategy operating on two frequencies simultaneously. The public frequency says no troops. The planning frequency says Kharg. Both are true because they serve different audiences at different timescales. “No troops” manages the domestic voter who remembers Iraq and Afghanistan. “Occupy or blockade Kharg” manages the Pentagon planner who needs a mechanism to sever the IRGC’s last major revenue stream. The leak to Axios is itself a weapon: it signals to Tehran that the option exists without committing Washington to execute it. Kharg Island sits 25 kilometres off the Iranian coast in the northern Persian Gulf. It is a loading terminal, not a military fortress. Tankers dock, fill with crude, and depart through Hormuz. Before the war, roughly 2.5 million barrels per day loaded from Kharg. After the strikes, Iran claims production is “fully operational and uninterrupted.” But exports are effectively halted because every P&I club voided war risk coverage and 97 percent of commercial traffic through Hormuz collapsed. The oil is produced. It cannot leave. The IRGC adapted. It built a $2 million toll system. Pay the fee, receive clearance via VHF radio, transit with AIS verification. The Financial Times confirmed the payments. Lloyd’s List Intelligence tracked 89 to 90 vessels transiting under some form of IRGC clearance between March 1 and 15. The toll funds the same provincial commands whose sealed packets created the closure. The blockade finances itself. A Kharg blockade would cut the one revenue mechanism Iran still controls. If the US interdicts tankers loading at Kharg through naval presence or aerial denial, Iran cannot sell crude even to shadow fleet operators or toll-paying intermediaries. The A7A5 stablecoin corridor that processed $72 to $93 billion in sanctions-evasion flows loses its primary commodity input. The IRGC toll system loses its product. The provincial commands lose their funding. The sealed packets that govern Hormuz continue executing, but the money that sustains the doctrine depletes. The administration has already built the architecture to support this without American boots on the island. Twenty-three point five billion dollars in arms just shipped to UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan. Patriot PAC-3 batteries protect the surrounding Gulf infrastructure from retaliation. THAAD radars extend early warning. Chinook helicopters provide logistics. Six allies pledged Hormuz safe passage support. Bessent is tracking defections and freezing leadership bank accounts. The kinetic campaign degrades Iranian offensive capability daily. The financial campaign degrades Iranian loyalty daily. A Kharg interdiction would degrade Iranian revenue daily. Three degradation tracks converging on the same target: IRGC survivability. Trump told the press he would not put troops anywhere and that he certainly would not tell them if he did. The second sentence negated the first. It was meant to. The purpose of saying “no troops” while simultaneously leaking “Kharg blockade” to Axios is to create uncertainty that is itself deterrence. Tehran cannot know whether the leak is preparation or posture. The uncertainty forces the IRGC to defend Kharg against a threat that may or may not materialise, diverting resources from Hormuz operations, provincial commands, and retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure. The island is 25 kilometres offshore. It processes the oil that funds the war. And the administration is publicly denying and privately considering the one move that would end the funding model while the strait stays closed and the molecules stay trapped. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
Las 4 claves de la semana.
El put-gasolina de Trump se acerca. El SP500 la puede liar a la baja si pierde el 6475
serenitymarkets.com/noticias-bolsa…
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
Juan أُعيد تغريده
Sixteen years ago, one man stood alone on a grassy hill at a music festival in Washington State, USA, and started dancing by himself. People glanced over and looked away. Some laughed. His roommate leaned in and warned him people were filming him.
He did not stop.
Then one stranger got up and joined him.
Then another.
Then the hillside tipped. Within minutes, hundreds of people were sprinting from across the field to be part of something that, thirty seconds earlier, had been one man being laughed at in a field.
Someone filming from higher up the hill said quietly: "See what one man can do. One man can change the world."
The clip spread across the internet in 2009. Entrepreneur Derek Sivers played it at a TED conference to explain how movements actually begin. Not with the first person brave enough to start, he argued, but with the first person willing to join them.
Collin Wynter, the man dancing alone, later said he had no idea he had done anything special. He was just tired of watching everyone sit still.
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
🚨 NARRATIVE: THE NIGHT IRAN REACHED FOR DIEGO GARCIA
It didn’t begin with an explosion. It began with a signal — quiet, calculated, and deliberate. Somewhere deep within Iran’s military command structure, a decision was made not just to strike, but to send a message across distance itself.
Thousands of kilometers away, in the middle of the Indian Ocean, lies Diego Garcia — a remote, heavily fortified outpost used by the United States and the United Kingdom. For decades, it had been considered far removed from immediate battlefield threats, protected as much by geography as by defense systems.
Then came the launch.
Two intermediate-range ballistic missiles tore into the sky, aimed not at nearby rivals, but at a base roughly 4,000 kilometers away. It was an attempt that changed the tone of the conflict instantly. This was no longer just a regional confrontation. This was a reach — a stretch of capability — a signal that distance might no longer guarantee safety.
As the missiles arced through the upper atmosphere, the world held its breath. Radar systems tracked their trajectory. Defense systems activated. Warships in the region moved into response posture. The moment was no longer about speculation — it was unfolding in real time.
But then, reality intervened.
One missile failed mid-flight, never completing its journey. The second triggered a defensive response — a U.S. Navy vessel launched an interceptor to neutralize the threat. Whether it was destroyed in the air or simply missed, the outcome was the same:
👉 No impact. No destruction. No successful strike.
And yet, despite the failure, something had shifted.
This was not a story of damage. It was a story of intent. Iran had not succeeded in hitting its target, but it had demonstrated something equally important: the willingness to attempt a strike at a distance previously thought beyond its operational reach.
For analysts, the implications were immediate. If a missile can travel that far — even unsuccessfully — then the map of vulnerability begins to change. Bases once considered safe due to distance must now factor in a new variable: possibility.
But capability is not just about range. It is about precision, reliability, and execution. And on that front, the attempt revealed clear limitations. A failed launch. An intercepted or ineffective strike. A target untouched.
In the end, the night did not belong to destruction. It belonged to signaling.
Iran had reached — but not hit.
📌 BOTTOM LINE
✔ Iran launched missiles toward Diego Garcia
✔ The distance marked a significant escalation in reach
✔ No missiles hit the target
✔ The event was more about demonstration than success
What happened over the Indian Ocean was not a victory, nor a collapse. It was something more subtle — a moment where the boundaries of the conflict stretched outward, not through impact, but through intention.
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
We're excited to announce 'The Situation Room' by Polymarket is coming to Washington, D.C.
The world's first bar dedicated to monitoring the situation. 🧵
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
Se llevaron a Ali Baba y dejaron a lis 40 ladrones @OrlvndoA
Orlando Avendaño@OrlvndoA
No entiendo cómo algunos dicen que todo sigue igual, o que incluso todo está peor en Venezuela, cuando: - Más de la mitad de los presos políticos han sido liberados y han regresado con sus familiares. - Grandes jerarcas del chavismo, como Raúl Gorrín, Alex Saab y, ahora, Wilmer Ruperti, han sido detenidos y enfrentan extradición. - El Estado se ha reformado, aun con reciclados, muestra de alteración, lo que abre oportunidades, y han salido de sus cargos Tarek William Saab, Padrino López y otros. - Ha habido reformas en el sector petrolero que implican apertura a la inversión privada y Delcy Rodríguez ha cumplido todas las demandas de EEUU en términos económicos. - Gran parte de las misiones sociales que desangraban al Estado fueron eliminadas. - Las FARC y el ELN desmontaron campamentos en Venezuela y empezaron a retirarse. - Venezuela dejó de sostener al régimen cubano con el envío de petróleo. Se suspendieron los vuelos de Caracas hacia La Habana y Managua. - Se abrió la embajada de EEUU en Caracas y empezó a trabajar en Venezuela la diplomática Laura Dogu, que hace seguimiento en el terreno y en tiempo real del proceso de transición. - El régimen de Delcy ha recibido con honores y arrodillado a diferentes funcionarios, como el secretario de Energía y el de Interior, y otros como Donovan, Humire y Ratcliffe que participaron directamente en la captura de Maduro. - Maduro está preso, en una cárcel de 3x2, con un inodoro y una cama de acero, y con apenas salidas a un patio tres veces a la semana. Y apenas han pasado poco menos de tres meses. Menos de tres meses y todo lo anterior ha ocurrido, cosa que es extraordinaria y era impensable antes del 3 de enero. Este es un proceso. Sabíamos desde el día uno que sería amargo, porque las transiciones no son idílicas. Existe un riesgo grande, que EEUU no puede permitirse, y es que todo colapse. Mucho está en manos de Estados Unidos, pero no todo. Que esto llegue a buen puerto también depende de todos nosotros, los venezolanos. Pero no podemos afirmar, hoy, que todo está igual o que las cosas están peor. Objetivamente, como dijo el secretario de Estado Marco Rubio, hoy Venezuela está mejor que lo que había del 2 de enero para atrás. Aún falta mucho. Necesitamos que esto sea corto y llegue a buen puerto, pronto. Pero no podemos desconocer los hechos. Y no podemos desconocer el extraordinario papel que está jugando Estados Unidos, que está manejando esto con guante de seda para evitar que devenga en caos. A veces nos frustra que, para asumir una tarea desafiante que implica relacionarse con el mundo criminal, no pusieron a una figura inmaculada. Es un pensamiento ingenuo y cortoplacista. A un tecnócrata de Harvard, bien portado, se lo devora el sistema en dos segundos. Estados Unidos está desactivando una bomba de tiempo. Y, para ayudar, debemos reconocer que eso está ocurriendo. De lo contrario, solo arrastraremos frustración y desánimo. Venezuela está logrando lo impensable. Han sido casi tres meses extraordinarios. No dejamos de ganar, como ocurrió este martes. Seguiremos ganando. Debemos poner de nuestra parte. Y agradecer. Debemos ser agradecidos.
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
What just happened?
At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.
Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.
Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.
Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.
By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.
Markets are now closed until Monday.
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
BREAKING: The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, posts a massive reversal in after hours trade, now up over +1%, as President Trump says he is considering “winding down” the Iran war.
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
Juan أُعيد تغريده
Bruce Lee fue el único que venció a Chuck Norris. Lo hizo en el Coliseo de Roma. Además tuvo la osadía de arrancar los pelos de su pecho.
Bruce defendía el restaurante chino de unos familiares.
A Chuck le habían contratado unos mafiosos italianos.
Descanse en paz Chuck Norris.
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Juan أُعيد تغريده
La diputada estatal brasileña Fabiana Bolsonaro se pinta la cara de negro en protesta por la elección de una legisladora transgénero:
“Ahora, a los 32 años, he decidido vestirme como una persona negra ¿Me convertí en negra?”
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