Becker

What exactly went wrong here?

Note that «mass produced domestic EUVs» doesn't mean «high volume manufacturing of low-nm chips». Even if they have the full equipment stack, ramping up production may take years more. TSMC&ASML experience advantage is enormous. I still think Lithos' 2045 timeline is pessimistic.

🇺🇸 Senator Cynthia Lummis calls for the US government to sell its gold reserves and buy 5% of all Bitcoin to resolve the $39 trillion national debt crisis.

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: State Dept just issued a global emergency warning to EVERY American on Earth: “Exercise increased caution NOW.” The war with Iran is spiraling out of control.

China’s solar manufacturing overbuild suddenly looks genius.