_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

@_Checkmatey_

Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility Newsletter https://t.co/omfQHUqMjb Onchain Analyst @_checkonchain Charting Suite https://t.co/5DH6Z9lWT1

UTXO Katılım Ocak 2018
1.4K Takip Edilen131.9K Takipçiler
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweetledi
Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
spent some time in @_nym21_ 's Bitcoin Research Kit. what a sovereign solution. it parses blocks, indexes the chain, computes 49,000+ series across 15 time resolutions and serves them, all from your own Bitcoin Core node. no vendor, no api keys, no one else in the loop between the chain and your models. MIT licensed, free api, live at bitview.space. thanks nym, you have now potentially created months of new playing for me if I decide to replace my current bitcoin data stack. incredible work!!! @_Checkmatey_
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Andy Edstrom
Andy Edstrom@edstromandrew·
People keep saying that "whales are buying back in" to #Bitcoin. Based on what data? Adding sats to existing addresses that already had large balances that were created years ago? Can somebody post or link data? Sorry I don't have any onchain subscriptions. Apparently they're not required for making market structure calls.
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Killa
Killa@KillaXBT·
Very interesting..... Long term $BTC holders are actually selling aggressively at these levels. We usually see this kind of aggressive selling during strong bull markets, but this time it seems like long term holders are actively de risking. Long term holders are rotating into other sectors. Most likely AI because this dynamic is definitely interesting. It could also mean some long-term holders no longer see Bitcoin offering the best RR compared to other opportunities, so they're reallocating capital. (I think that is BS personally) Either way, I'm still bullish. I'd rather see long term holders capitulate now and spread supply across more holders.
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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweetledi
_Checkonchain
_Checkonchain@_checkonchain·
Bear markets aren't just for finding bottoms. They're also one of the best times to model where the next cycle could go. In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ explains why long-term price anchors become especially useful during bear markets, and how projecting their historical growth rates forward can help build a framework for estimating future cycle highs → newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/numba-go-up
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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweetledi
Stephan Livera
Stephan Livera@stephanlivera·
James Check: Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin Amid Time Pain | SLP755 @_Checkmatey_ of @_checkonchain, joins me to break down the current cycle through on-chain data and market psychology. We’ve seen sales from ETFs and some Treasury Companies, but spot demand remains in a shallow bear market. Check examines why short-term holders flipped into high-conviction buyers, 53K realized price might be a floor and the Pareto distribution among Bitcoin treasury companies. Timestamps: 00:56 — Last Day of Bear Feels Worst 03:26 — Time Pain Grinds Out Weak Hands 05:53 — Shallowest Bear Market Ever Seen 08:53 — Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin From Zero 11:14 — Short-Term Holders Are Now Smart Money 15:28 — July Bear Bottom: 8-Method Average 18:50 — 53K Realized Price Now the Floor 23:00 — Buy Bottom 15% and Just DCA 28:30 — The AI Trade 30:46 — Bitcoin and Gold Share a Rare Moat 35:23 — Will Most Bitcoin Treasuries Fail? 37:37 — MSTR's Sale of Bitcoin 41:28 — Bitcoin Treasuries Follow Harsh Pareto Rule 47:30 — Bitcoin Treasuries Next Cycle 49:05 — High-Yield Trap?
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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️@_Checkmatey_·
It's the perfect boogeyman for folks who buy too much at the top, and need to pass the blame, rather than perform some self reflection. Derivatives affect markets, they are also tools that allow big money to hedge risk by passing it to speculators. Without them, big capital cannot, and will not buy spot exposure at all.
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Alex Thorn
Alex Thorn@intangiblecoins·
update in the effort by ‘noah doe’ to claim legal ownership over satoshi’s coins the “abandoned bitcoin” lawsuit just quietly dropped 44 of its 39,069 defendants every single one had moved coins onchain since the case was filed
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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️@_Checkmatey_·
The actual years of those traces really does matter here. The only one it is mirroring in terms of depth is 2014-15, after Mt Gox. Not sure we can paint the same 'it's only a quarter of the' way and about to get considerably worse setup as 2014... Maybe, not a serious base case.
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𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades·
@SashaGusevPosts Congrats you discovered that the median income rises in nominal terms over time. Now do home ownership costs relative to it. Now do higher education costs relative to it.
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Sasha Gusev
Sasha Gusev@SashaGusevPosts·
Some fun charts: 1. Each US generation is wealthier than the last.
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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️@_Checkmatey_·
@AnuragSaikia @MichaelDunwort1 The daylight between a relay policy default (even in Core), and a soft fork that will cause a chain split and goes against all established norms of finding overwhelming consensus...is ~the sun. It's an illconceived, immature, and unserious strategy, and it will fail.
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⏳ Michael Dunworth⌛️
⏳ Michael Dunworth⌛️@MichaelDunwort1·
You have kept saying it repeatedly. And Everytime you do, you expose that you’re not experienced to evaluate the situation correctly. There is never a silver bullet with spam, ever. Exploits get patched and re patched. This is why (for 1 whole year Stephan), I have explained that the solution is social. Do you know anyone with a microphone that can deter and discourage spam at the social tolerated level? Right, so do your job properly and stop making yourself look stupid. I’ve been trying for a year to tell you bro.
Stephan Livera@stephanlivera

Bip110 is a counter productive virtue signal. As I've been continually explaining, they can vary the inscription envelope. If only bip110 people would listen. It's time to focus on monetary adoption instead of caring about spam on chain.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️@_Checkmatey_·
This effect is very real, and I notice a growing number of analysts who do not understand it. Folks are blindly quoting outdated 'wisdom' pertaining to the Realised Price, or LTH cost basis and to how cycles should interact with it. These metrics are not accurate in their vanilla form. A cursory grasp of Cointime Economics is very important as a foundation for anyone seriously attempting onchain analysis work. charts.checkonchain.com/webassets/docs…
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️@_Checkmatey_

LTH cost basis drifts down even more than Realised Price due to unrealised profit locked into lost coins. Divide it by liveliness. You'll notice that LTH-AVIV matches LTH-SOPR, meaning avg hold is = avg spend, which is expected. A lot of folks are currently confusing themselves into missing reality because of this effect.

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Billy ₿oone
Billy ₿oone@thebillyboone·
@_Checkmatey_ every on-chain metric ages the same way. gospel on the way up, noise on the way down.
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ROGER 9000 🪢 + ₿IP-110
ROGER 9000 🪢 + ₿IP-110@roger__9000·
Out of curiosity, who on the BIP110 side would leave Bitcoin behind if this soft fork fails ? I for one would never abandon Bitcoin because of this. I don’t know if anyone who wants RDTS is willing to leave if things don’t work out? Things change but the mission is still the same for us .. no?
Giacomo Loathsome Bitcoin Destroyer Zucco@giacomozucco

I think we'll see a small-cap PoW-change-HF altcoin emerging, after the BIP110 chain will agonize with little to no hashrate and blocks. I think this will embolden spammers/scammers and Core "governance", since most of their opponents got trapped into associating with this disastrous attempt (some of them will sadly leave Bitcoin, while others will slowly elaborate the loss and hopefully go back to support alternative implementations and a healthy aversion to spam and scams). Maybe a failure by Core elite to activate consensus cleanup will rebalance things a bit. We will not go full Ethereum by any metric that matters (also thanks for such failures by opinionated minorities to force the neutral network to follow their preferences). Bitcoin will be fine. The 2029 bull market will see few people ever remembering the current (and typical) bear market doomerism.

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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️@_Checkmatey_·
I find it curious that you'd support a temporary softfork (as temporary as a tempoary gov policy), which doesn't actually stop spam at a technical level (thus redundant code), and employs a 55% threshold (which certainly isn't overwhelming consensus). This sounds truthfully, like you're supporting the install of something that belongs on twitter into the Bitcoin consensus code, without majority support. This sounds like you're supporting an ill-fated attack on the one thing we should not be fucking up. I believe your focus is misplaced here. Run whatever relay policy you want, but supporting a poorly designed consensus code change, is not a great look.
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⏳ Michael Dunworth⌛️
⏳ Michael Dunworth⌛️@MichaelDunwort1·
People have been asking for a fork for as long as I’ve been in the discussion (afaik). Stephan himself personally would like it too! So it’s a favour almost. I don’t see how it is a favour as it isn’t the first choice for me, but most Core supporters seem to rejoice, so it’s all gravy afaict
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James Van Straten
James Van Straten@btcjvs·
4 charts to show why the bitcoin bottom isn't in based on previous cycles. LTH Realized Price at $49.3k = BTC has always gone below it. LTH and STH MVRV have yet to converge with one another. Realized Price - Average cost basis at $53k LTH SOPR - LTHs realizing losses, but not at previous capitulation levels.
James Van Straten tweet mediaJames Van Straten tweet mediaJames Van Straten tweet mediaJames Van Straten tweet media
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⏳ Michael Dunworth⌛️
⏳ Michael Dunworth⌛️@MichaelDunwort1·
Totally. You always would want it to be resolved at a social layer. You either discuss the solution to the problem or discuss the wrong solution to the problem. So it’s always better for everyone to discuss it cleanly the first time. That’s why it’s a -EV play to antagonise and persist against good faith. I say good faith in that I mean, 1/4 of people are unhappy so something is obviously worth discussing. Either way, we’re here now and you get some fresh forked coins probably. Or nothing alternatively. Either way, you’re sweet!
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Keşfet

@FinancialReview @_nym21_ @edstromandrew @ChimRichalds20 @KillaXBT @_checkonchain @intangiblecoins @mikealfred