Bi_eber

@ThePenguinBTC interesting view. at this stage, whatever Trump does, he's already lost, even if he claims a win. he's lost the mid-term from his own doing. given the impact of this war on our daily lives, wherever you're from, noone wants this war, except for a handful of people.

Trump İran'ın gemilerini durduracağını söyledi. Ama o gemilerin %90'ı Çin'e gidiyor. Trump bugün açıklama yaptı: "İran'a haraç ödeyen her gemiyi uluslararası sularda durduracağız." Herkes bunu İran'a karşı bir hamle olarak gördü. Ben bir soru sordum. O gemiler kime gidiyor? İran petrolünün %80-90'ını Çin'e satıyor. Durduracağı gemilerin neredeyse tamamı Çin'e giden gemiler. Trump İran diyor. Ama aslında Çin'in petrol hattını kesiyor. Kimse bunu konuşmuyor. Önce Islamabad'da ne olduğuna bakalım. Pakistan'ın arabuluculuğuyla ABD ve İran masaya oturdu. Vance ABD heyetine başkanlık etti. Saatlerce görüşüldü. Anlaşma olmadı. JD Vance "Son ve en iyi teklifimizi verdik" deyip masadan kalktı. Saatler sonra Trump iki açıklama yaptı. İkisi de çok ağır. Birincisi: "ABD Donanması Hürmüz Boğazı'na giren veya çıkan tüm gemileri abluka altına alacak. Tam bir abluka devreye sokuyoruz. İran'ın sevdiği insanlara petrol satıp sevmediklerine satmamasına izin vermeyeceğiz. Ya hep ya hiç olacak." İkincisi: "Çin gemilerini bize yollasın. Venezuela'ya yollasın. Bizde fazla petrol var. Daha ucuza bile satarız." Bu iki açıklamayı yan yana koyduğunuzda resim netleşiyor. Birincisiyle Çin'in petrol hattını kesiyor. İkincisiyle Çin'e "benden al" diyor. Peki Çin neden ABD'den alsın? Şu an Çin, İran'dan kendi parasıyla petrol alıyor. Yuan ile. Dolar yok, SWIFT yok, ABD'nin kontrolündeki hiçbir sisteme bağımlı değil. ABD'den alırsa ne olur? Dolar kullanmak zorunda kalır. ABD bankacılık sistemine girer, SWIFT üzerinden işlem yapar. ABD istediği zaman musluğu kapatabilir. Yaptırım koyabilir. Hesapları dondurabilir. Tıpkı İran'a yaptığı gibi. Tıpkı Rusya'ya yaptığı gibi. Trump petrol satmak istemiyor. Çin'i kendine bağımlı yapmak istiyor. Çin bunu biliyor. Mesele petrol değil. Mesele kontrol. Şimdi İran'ın Hürmüz'de ne kurduğuna bakalım. İran boğazda bir gişe sistemi kurdu. Her ülkeye 1'den 5'e kadar öncelik puanı veriyor. Birinci öncelik: Dost ülkeler. Geçiş kolaylaştırılıyor. Diğer ülkeler güvenlik taramasından geçiyor. İsrail veya ABD bağlantısı olmadığı doğrulanıyor. Sonra ücret ödeniyor. Ücret: Varil başına 1 dolar. Yuan veya kripto ile. Ödeme yapılınca İran Devrim Muhafızları geçiş kodu veriyor. Gemi boğaza yaklaştığında kodu radyodan iletiyor. Devriye botu karşılıyor. Boğazdan geçene kadar eşlik ediyor. Bu sistem Mart 2026'da İran Meclisi tarafından yasalaştırıldı. Ve Japonya bile bu sistemi kullandı. ABD'nin en yakın müttefiklerinden biri. İran'a yuan ile ödeme yaparak gemilerinin geçmesini sağladı. Şimdi kritik soruya gelelim. ABD gerçekten Çin gemisini durdurabilir mi? Bir Çin ticaret gemisini uluslararası sularda durdurmak ve aramak ne anlama gelir? Çin bunu ticaret ablukası olarak görür. Egemenlik ihlali olarak görür. Sessiz kalmaz. Çin'in muhtemel tepkileri: İran'a desteğini artırır. Hürmüz'deki yuan sistemini güçlendirir. Donanmasını bölgeye yaklaştırabilir, ABD tahvili satışını hızlandırabilir. Yani Çin gemisini durdurursanız sorunu çözmezsiniz. Büyütürsünüz. Peki durduramazsa? O zaman daha büyük bir sorun var. Trump "tüm gemileri durduracağız" dedi. Dünya izliyor. Körfez ülkeleri izliyor. Avrupa izliyor. Taiwan izliyor. Rusya izliyor. Hepsinin aklında tek bir soru var: Amerika dediğini yapabilir mi? Eğer Çin gemileri geçmeye devam ederse ve ABD durduramıyorsa cevap herkes için netleşir. "Yapamıyor." Ray Dalio'nun formülünü hatırlayın. "Süper güçler kritik ticaret yollarında kontrolü kaybettiğinde güven çöker. Müttefikler uzaklaşır. Para kaçar." Portekiz böyle bitti. Hollanda böyle bitti. İngiltere 1956'da Süveyş'te böyle bitti. İki senaryo var. İkisi de riskli. Birincisi: ABD Çin gemilerini durdurur. Abluka gerçek olur. Bu İran savaşından çok daha tehlikeli bir krize dönüşebilir. Çünkü karşınızda İran değil Çin var. İkincisi: ABD Çin gemilerine dokunamaz. Abluka kağıt üzerinde kalır. "Bu ülke dediğini yapamıyor" algısı oluşur. Müttefikler mesafe koyabilir. Dolar zayıflayabilir. İlk test çok yakında. Bir Çin petrol tankeri Hürmüz'e doğru yola çıktığında ABD Donanması ne yapacak? O an her şeyi belirleyecek. Bu benim kişisel analizim. Önümüzdeki birkaç gün çok yoğun geçecek, sizi her şeyden haberdar edeceğim.

$73k on ceasefire. $71k when talks failed. Wait for Monday... The "we're back" lasted 5 days. That pump was for exit, not an entry. Did you get dumped on by your favorite influencers?

@worldlibertyfi @justinsuntron @justinsuntron you have 24hrs to retract your statement and remove your post. Past that deadline, you will get annihilated. But after 24hrs, you will still have 2 weeks to comply…

Does anyone still believe @justinsuntron ? Justin’s favorite move is playing the victim while making baseless allegations to cover up his own misconduct. Same playbook, different target. WLFI isn't the first. We have the contracts. We have the evidence. We have the truth. See you in court pal.

@AI_with_jasmin Claude

Steal these 100 Claude Tips from me right now! Comment "Claude" if you want to receive the HD PDF in your inbox

@milesdeutscher Is that a clickbait or true?

why I quit crypto... (the truth) Live now 👉youtube.com/live/tDMflu2eN…

@ZssBecker Post ceasefire (which increasingly looks like it might not hold), all the influencers are trying to hype the market, and offload their bags. Posts suggesting alt season is coming, are totally irresponsible.

The state of alts is nuts. I just spoke to a AI project .Their annual revenue is DOUBLE their market cap. They are printing money. Yet they are at a 1 mil market cap, the coins are fully diluted. Even in TERRIBLE conditions this coin should be at a 20 mil market cap. These coins will reprice at least 3-5x the second Bitcoin starts its leg up. They are everywhere right now. I don't know when the market returns. I do know these are at outrageously oversold prices and an easy 3-5x bunt when it does return.

@cryptomanran I normally like your content, but suggesting that we're back, is irresponsible, and will get people wrecked. War. Oil surging. Retail broke. No stimulus. Zero catalysts. Ask Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT if we're in a bull market. I'll wait. Full breakdown 🧵👇 x.com/Bi_Ariya/statu…

Bears will be right for a short period. Bulls will be rich!

@CryptoGirlNova Rare to see this kind of honesty in CT right now. 👏 Option 3: let price action guide you, not hopium. So many influencers crying wolf rn it's scary, based on ceasefire headlines. Bear or Bull? My opinion 🧵👇 x.com/Bi_Ariya/statu…

History suggests the bottom is not in yet. Both on timing and in terms of correction. But will Bitcoin work like a clock forever? 1/ If you believe so than the biggest risk is that you remain sidelined if it doesn't anymore. Especially if you choose to ignore any invalidation signal if it doesn't further down the line. 2/ If you don't believe in it, than the biggest risk is going in to early and the end is still not in sight. Can you handle the further turmoil? 3/ Let price action guide you. Even if you don't believe in TA and drawing all sorts of 100 different lines or indicators. Watching the trend is proven to work (meaning just look at the state of price on a naked chart and see if price is stilling mostly moving down or up > higher highs or not) There is still a risk here. You give up missing a small amount of upside in return for more safety and stronger odds. ~ I personally like 3 most of them all but all carry some risk of more downside or missing some upside.

“For humanity”, yet many AI key figures warn about the dangers of AI. My kids are 11 years old, asked me “why would we do that??” (as in built an autonomous self-thinking AI we could not control). We are the ones building what we warn humanity about… Make that make sense. Humanity built the nuclear bomb, but now wants to disarm certain countries because of the threat it represents to humanity… “God’s complex”.

In 19 days, a jury in Oakland is going to decide whether the entire legal foundation of the AI industry is built on fraud. Everyone thinks the Musk vs Altman lawsuit is a billionaire grudge match. Two egos, one grudge, a $150 billion damages number designed for headlines. Easy to dismiss. Easy to scroll past. That's exactly what Altman wants you to think. Because what's actually on trial on April 27 is something much BIGGER than Elon's hurt feelings... A jury is going to decide whether you can legally take billions of dollars in nonprofit donations, use them to build the most valuable technology in human history, and then quietly convert that nonprofit into a for-profit company worth $850 billion. If the answer is no, the entire AI industry has a problem. Because OpenAI is not the only company that did this: Anthropic was founded by OpenAI defectors using the same nonprofit-first mission language. xAI pitches itself as building AI "for humanity." Every frontier lab has used the moral cover of "we're doing this for the good of the world" to attract talent, capital, and regulatory goodwill they would have never gotten otherwise. An Elon win doesn't just touch OpenAI. It creates a legal precedent that every AI company built on a nonprofit or public benefit promise becomes vulnerable to shareholder and donor clawback suits. That's why this case matters. And that's why Altman is panicking. Just look at what he did this week: Elon filed a motion demanding the court remove Altman and Brockman from their roles and FORCE OpenAI to return to its nonprofit origins. Then he amended the suit to say if he wins the $150 billion, all of it goes to OpenAI's charity arm. Not him. Zero dollars to Elon personally. That amendment was surgical. It stripped Altman of his entire public defense. He can no longer claim this is about Elon's ego or Elon's bank account. Elon is now legally on record saying he just wants the mission back. OpenAI's response was to panic-write a letter to the California and Delaware attorneys general asking them to investigate Elon for "anti-competitive behavior." Their strategy chief publicly accused Elon of coordinating attacks with Mark Zuckerberg. They called the lawsuit "harassment driven by ego and jealousy." That's NOT the response of a company that thinks it's going to win. Real companies with real defenses don't ask the government to silence the person suing them 3 weeks before trial. They let the evidence speak. OpenAI is scrambling because they know what's in discovery. Elon's team has been building this case for two years. Emails, board minutes, internal conversations about the conversion. The kind of paper trail that juries understand and executives can't explain away. And the timing couldn't be worse... OpenAI is trying to IPO at $852 billion. They just raised $122 billion. Microsoft has $135 billion of exposure to them. A jury verdict that even partially sides with Elon in late April or May would crater the entire IPO runway and send shockwaves through every major AI investor on Earth. This is why Altman spent the last 2 weeks doing press tours and policy blueprints and "super intelligence agendas" aimed at Washington. He's trying to REFRAME himself as the responsible statesman of AI right before a jury decides if he's a con artist. Most people will watch this trial start and think it's celebrity drama. The smart money is watching it and realizing that the legal foundation of the AI boom is about to be tested in court for the first time EVER. And if that foundation cracks, everything built on top of it is at risk.

As much as we, the people (not the leaders), want the war to end soon; nobody knows how to end it at this stage, as parties involved have different incentives. Trump will lose mid-term if he can’t end the war and somehow turn that into a win (even so…). Iran knows that, they don’t need to win the war, they need to last to mid-term, and cause the world enough pain, that nobody’s left to support Trump. Israel, well, wants to keep shooting Iran. Best outcome is a face-saving agreement, that allows both Trump and Iran to claim a win with their respective audiences. How do you get Israel to agree to that though? No idea how we successfully get there. People who say they know, are just selling hopium, trying to save their bags. Not a geopolitics expert, just my own logic.

🚨 WAR ENDS FASTER THAN YOU THINK Now let’s talk about the Republicans that are facing midterms. @joemccann says the Iran conflict is driven by political incentives as high oil and inflation hurt campaigns. This could lead to a likely ceasefire, lower oil, rate cuts, and a stronger economy. So if this plays out, the market not positioned?

@RohanLePage 🤫

Signed, under embargo so no names yet, multiple stakeholders involved, and the ink is still wet. Projected users from contracted volumes: CY1 1.8M CY2 4.7M CY3 5.9M A lot of work went into getting this over the line. More detail coming once everyone is aligned on messaging. @ShareRingGlobal @TheRealTimBos @Bi_Ariya #Private #Secure #Verified

@simonkim_nft Good analysis 👍

From Clawdbot to Moltbot: Did Anthropic Just Fill In Its Own Moat? Anthropic's trademark complaint against the open-source project Clawdbot, forcing a name change, is more than a legal maneuver—it's a significant signal in the unfolding AI platform wars. Clawdbot became Moltbot, and the character Clawd became Molty. A killer app that had exploded past 60,000 GitHub stars was forced into an overnight rebrand. Legally, defending the trademark based on the similarity between "Clawd" and "Claude" is a company's legitimate right and duty. But from a business strategy perspective, this decision carries a serious risk of being penny wise and pound foolish. The loss of ecosystem as the real moat. Clawdbot was a powerful free marketing channel that legitimately used the Claude API while driving subscriptions. As performance gaps between AI models continue to narrow, true competitive advantage no longer comes from model intelligence itself, but from the richness of applications running on top of that model. OpenAI opened the GPT Store and actively courted third-party developers for a reason: applications built by developers are the most powerful moat for locking in users. Instead of embracing Clawdbot to expand the Claude ecosystem, Anthropic pushed it away, effectively blocking its own path to ecosystem growth. A losing move between brand expansion and protection. Anthropic currently remains a niche brand for specialists, squeezed between OpenAI's mainstream appeal, Google's infrastructure, and xAI's fanbase. When Clawdbot was gaining mainstream popularity, the natural perception that "Clawdbot runs on Claude" could have created a trickle-down effect for the brand. The trademark issue could have been creatively resolved through licensing agreements or official partnerships like "Built with Claude." Choosing prohibition over partnership sacrificed brand expandability for brand purity—a classic old-school approach. Accelerating model agnosticism. The most painful misstep is that Moltbot has now moved to neutral ground. With Claude's colors stripped from the name, Moltbot no longer has any reason to stay tied to Claude. Swapping the backend to GPT-4o or Gemini, or letting users choose their own model, wouldn't feel out of place at all. The implications are significant. Developers will increasingly architect model-agnostic structures to avoid the risk of platform lock-in. The Clawdbot incident sent a clear message to developers: "Building Claude-exclusive apps is risky." This could ultimately weaken Anthropic's dominant position and reduce its model to just another commodity. Eroding developer trust as capital. DHH's criticism of Anthropic's "customer hostile" behavior aligns with this incident. Using developer data for training while rejecting tools that developers build creates an appearance of hypocrisy that breeds cynicism in the community. The quip on X—"The future of AI is open... until legal wakes up"—isn't just venting. The outcome of early platform wars ultimately depends on where the smartest developers want to play. Moltbot's "Molt" (shedding) is symbolic. It's not just a name change—it may be a declaration of independence by the developer ecosystem seeking to break free from the control of specific AI companies. Future AI dominance won't belong to the company with the best model, but to the one that provides the widest and most open playground where developers can freely build. If Anthropic doesn't take this message of shedding seriously and shift from closed garden management to open plaza cultivation, it may end up as an isolated island in the ecosystem war—despite its technical superiority.

@RohanLePage @ShareRingGlobal Cool pics. Good vibe.

Three days on the ground in Thailand with Bi (@Bi_Ariya). Execution focused meetings, clear alignment, real momentum. We recorded a podcast style chat on Bi’s work & our partnership with @ShareRingGlobal. We’ll share it once it’s cleaned up. Excited to return to Bangkok soon.

Thanks @RohanLePage for visiting Bangkok. I am excited, beginning of January, we announced ShareRing’s investment into Transformational, and 2 weeks later, we are into execution mode. The real (and hark) work starts now!

@RohanLePage @TheRealTimBos Welcome back to Bkk @RohanLePage See you tomorrow 😉

Marketing made me post this: airport now, BKK tomorrow ✈️ @Bi_Ariya @TheRealTimBos

The "Digital Gap" in SE Asia is real. While we have super-apps, our "trust infrastructure" is still stuck in the 90s. In @ShareRing 's latest blogpost, I broke down the 3 "Analog Anchors" holding Thailand back: 1️⃣ The "Certified Copy" Trap: Printing, signing, and photocopying the same IDs & House Registrations over and over. It's redundant and slow. 2️⃣ The Messenger Economy: When a million-dollar digital deal depends on a motorbike in Bangkok traffic to deliver documents, the system is broken. 3️⃣ Zero Portability: Why do we have to verify the same facts with 5 different banks? Verified data should be mobile and user-owned. We’re changing this by turning "paperwork" into Digital Twins. 🛡️📲 #Transformational #ShareRing #DigitalTransformation #SSI #ThailandTech #Web3

@TheRealTimBos @ShareRingGlobal Definitely a great way to kick off 2026 @TheRealTimBos Thank you for your trust. 🚀 Let's build, let's educate the market how the concept of digital twin can and should be embedded in our every day lives.

We're very excited to kick off 2026 with this new strategic investment and partnership. I've been working with @Bi_Ariya for some time now, and his industry knowledge, experience and network are second to none in the region. The team at @ShareRingGlobal are thrilled about the future of privacy focused digital identity across SE Asia.

@ShareRingGlobal Thank you for your trust @ShareRingGlobal Now, let's build 🚀

ShareRing moves from roadmap to reality. ShareRing has acquired a 25% stake in leading Thai digital venture builder, Transformational, embedded across Government, Enterprise and Public Sector ecosystems. $SHR is scaling to the next phase. Read more: sharering.network/blog/ transformational.co.th

Great way to start 2026, thrilled to officially announce the @ShareRing investment in Transformational! 🚀 We are bringing world-class Self-Sovereign Identity (SSI) to Thailand. This isn't just about logins; we’re building Digital Twins of official documents—verified, secure, and entirely user-owned. 🛡️ No more data leaks, falsified documents, stolen identity. Just decentralized trust powered by Verifiable Credentials (VC). Massive thanks to @Tim_Bos and the @ShareRing team for the trust and shared vision. Let’s build! 🇹🇭🌐 #SSI #Blockchain #Web3 #ThailandTech #ShareRing

AN OPEN LETTER TO @YouTube AND NEAL MAHON. Dear @YouTube I built a media business that broadcasts on your platform. Our business has exploded and we are growing rapidly. We have over 1,1m subscribers. We employ over 100 people globally and we work tirelessly to deliver on our mission of building the most profitable community in the world. Despite our success, I am constantly anxious. I don’t sleep at night and I am scared to scale my business. Why? It’s not because of any real market or business risk. It’s because I know that at any moment I could get a Youtube strike, or a series of strikes , that may force me to close the entire business overnight and destroy my work and that of my 100 employees. Even though our channel hasn’t been affected , many of our partner channels and fellow creators have suffered this fate. As one of the larger players in the industry, I feel I have a duty and an obligation to take on this fight. 100s of crypto content creators are making the same videos they have made for years, with similar content and style, only now they are getting strikes or being deplatformed. And the worst parts, 1. They have absolutely no idea what they are doing wrong and so they can’t change. All they get is a vague message that the video contravened the community Guidelines, of which there are many. 2. The appeal process is flawed, seems to be an AI and unreliable. Worse yet, is that since Youtube has network effects and a monopoly of sorts there are no real viable alternatives, and so if it happens to you , your business is gone. One of our partners and member of our group of companies , @FefeDemeny has a channel called the 100x club. He comes from a humble background! He is hardworking, ambitious and makes great content. He built a business from his garage, started from zero and was just getting momentum. Recently his channel has been under attack by the Youtube algorithm, he received warnings and strikes and despite all the strikes being removed on appeal - today his channel was removed permanently! The worst part is that he has no idea why. He has become really conservative with his content, he follows all the known guidelines, he follows all the processes and he still received the strikes. Now he cannot make content for a week and his ability to keep funding his business is impaired. He, like many others in this industry, is a business creator with good intentions and great content. We have made millions of hours of content on your platforms. We have brought in Billions of dollars of ad revenue. Despite this our businesses are under threat constantly. He is not the only one. It’s happening daily to creators in our industry and we have no idea why. At this point it is clear that there is an issue with your flagging software. It seems like a setting is too sensitive. And this issue is costing honest people their businesses and their livelihoods. We are not asking for any favorable treatment or for you to change any rules, All we are asking for is clarity. We want to understand why some channels are randomly getting strikes so we can understand and comply. We would also appreciate it if you could review your algorithm as it may be set to sensitive or it may be picking up false positives. As a monopoly of sort you have a duty to ensure that you are fair to all creators, the same creators that build your business. We would appreciate a real response for a real human, someone with real power and some action that can assist us in maintaining our businesses that we have worked so hard to build. I write this on behalf of many creators. I look forward to a response. If you want to help creators, please share this far and wide. You are helping save people’s businesses.