ADC

$QQQ weekly: 23 - 27 Mar Price action: oversold The Fed: turning hawkish Mkts & Narratives: Iran unpredictable, private credit problems Breadth: oversold Sentiment: approaching bearish extreme Seasonality: good in April Short-term view: looking for a bounce, but could start from lower levels open.substack.com/pub/chartnotes…

Works until it doesn't ... if the market figures out ground invasion i.e. escalation will start into the long weekend, it may crash before it. Reason being delayed timeline that could put the world into energy shortage i.e. "lockdown". A bit like covid.

"Most people don't understand as yet the magnitude of this shock." Of all the issues discussed during this weekend’s many conference calls on the economic and financial consequences of the Middle East conflict, this one sentence stood out the most. It’s a sobering reminder that we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg regarding the shock to the economic and financial systems. #economy #markets #middleeastwar

My canary in a coal mine composite is falling fast.

BREAKING: Market in Panic Mode Fear & Greed just hit 9. The last times sentiment got this bad: • 2020 COVID crash • 2022 bear market low • 2025 tariff panic Each time, the market was closer to a bottom than people thought. Extreme fear rarely pays to sell. $SPY

The forward P/E of Exxon Mobil has surpassed that of Nvidia.

This is $SMH showing two downside targets I do NOT use Fib and never have I am a Edwards and Magee/Schabacker measured moves guy

Many people have asked why this market isn't down a lot more with everything going on. I keep saying the same thing. This is a well-hedged environment. Here's yet another chart that demonstrates it. The global long/short ratio is at its lowest level in 15 years, per Goldman.

Risk/reward seems attractive: Token consumption accelerating, GPU per hour rental prices going vertical and Tech valuations are broadly below their Covid and Deepseek lows. Some high quality secular growth names are at mid single digit multiples on real 27/28 numbers.

Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives: Bad news is starting to get baked into tech stocks @divestech @seekingalpha

A priest, a pastor and a rabbit walked in to a blood donation clinic. The nurse asked the rabbit: “What is your blood type?” “I am probably a type O”, said the rabbit.

Back to the market. Oil is surging, volatility is expanding, and sentiment is quickly turning bearish—that’s your first clue. When fear spreads wildly, you have to start thinking contrary. But let’s be clear: Powell has signaled he’s on hold until there’s clarity out of the Middle East. That means uncertainty remains the dominant force—for now. After last week’s meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that further evidence of easing inflation is required before additional policy easing is considered: “If we don’t see that progress, then you won’t see the rate cut.” Market expectations have shifted. In just a week, bond traders moved from anticipating rate cuts to pricing in roughly a 50.0 percent probability of a rate hike by October. In Europe, markets are now pricing in as many as three ECB rate hikes by year-end. Recession risk is rising as the Iran conflict prolongs and oil prices are elevated. A slowing U.S. economy could hurt corporate profits and also exacerbate emerging stresses in the private credit market. At some point, we’re going to get a sharp snapback rally. That’s inevitable. But don’t confuse a reflex rally with a new uptrend. Some of the most powerful rallies happen inside bear markets and major corrections—they trap the impatient and reward them with whipsaw action. The market is news driven. If this conflict resolves quickly and favorably, we could see a classic V-shaped recovery. If not, the market is going to likely need time to repair to establish a durable bottom. Oil will eventually present a good shorting opportunity. Equities will bottom. But timing is everything—and for the low-risk trader, volatility is the enemy. That's why I’m never concerned with buying at the lowest price—I want the right price. I want alpha, and I want it fast and efficient. Grinding for pennies in chaotic conditions is for gamblers and action jumkies. Those are hard-penny environments—and that’s where amateurs get chopped up. Professionals have what I call sit-out power—the discipline to wait for easy-dollar conditions, when the odds are clearly in your favor. How long do they wait? As long as it takes. That's where the discipline comes in. minervini.com

Ned Davis Research: A Sell Signal🚦arrived to end the week with $SPX falling at least -7.2% from prior weekly high. Almost always finds a lower price even if bouncing first, but then falling to a lower-low. A Buy Signal🚦is produced if then rises +8.4% from the prior low. $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NDX $IWM $NYA $SMH $NVDA

We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation. When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like capitulation and a real fear that we may have passed the soft deadline beyond which the impact on the business cycle will be hard to undo.

@JoshYoung CRAP more like

"How could we know there was a bubble?" Exhibit A:

Some market observations: Positive: - Hedge Funds aggressively cut net exposure last week - CTAs max short - Quarter end rebalance 97th % buy for equities Negative: - CFTC data shows speculators bought the dip in S&P futures (vs aggressively shorting during other swing lows) - No capitulation/panic in price action yet - USD technicals suggest it wants higher - Unfortunately no obvious good solution to Iran conflict While I see some conditions for a bit of a bounce into quarter end and maybe April 1, the evidence for a "swing low" appears weak for now It seems more likely to me that weakness eventually resumes. Everything depends on the Iran conflict of course, so this view could be entirely wrong and/or change on a dime

You don't need to predict 'the' bottom. You need to prepare for 'a' bottom. S&P Bullish Percent at 33. RSI at 27. A third of the index on buy signals. Breadth is buried. But a bullish divergence is forming, lower highs on BP and higher low on the. This same structure has lined up with the start of some nice bounces in the past (highlighted on chart) And here's the part nobody talks about, when that bounce comes, most people either aren't in it or they're so deep in the red that they dump on the first sign of green just to stop the bleeding. The market doesn't bounce when you're ready. It bounces when the most people have given up or are too underwater to hold.

BoA on SPX gamma: “SPX gamma reached historically negative territory last week, ending Thursday at -$3.5bn (<1st %ile since 2014), driven primarily by dealers short 31-Mar 6475 strike puts [see other post on this]. "As this short gamma regime has become more entrenched, the boost to 1m realized vol has risen to roughly +0.8v. And absent new option flows, SPX gamma is expected to remain negative next week across a wide range of spot levels. Despite this, SPX close-to-close realized vol remains subdued, even after Friday’s selloff—near 15.5% and half the VIX level (~31), as memories of last April’s +9% rebound linger and appear to handicap US equity investors from more rapidly pricing in the stress visible in commodity markets.” So BoA sees gamma remaining at “historic lows” (which means dealers have to “chase” moves amping up volatility). The good news is they see it falling on moves higher until around 6600 meaning upside volatility should build until that level. Still it takes a move over 6900 to get us out of this high volatility negative gamma environment.

🗣️ Morgan Stanley's Wilson Sees S&P 500 Correction Entering Final Stage

That's it. I give up.. Donald Trump is a time traveler. 20/20 interview 1987. Wtf.