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@CedsSim
Bubble Chaser. Tradoooor. Metals and Commodities Expert.











Hormuz famine timelines A month-long closure of Hormuz, which is already the base case, will lead to inflation. The hydrocarbon value chain will be most impacted. A 3 month closure and you're looking at a high probability of regional famines in the most vulnerable areas. When we start looking at 6 months or more we get into the really dark scenarios. 50% of all food globally is produced with synthetic inputs. These supply chains will be incredibly stressed, and export bans and windfall taxes likely cap output. At a 6-month closure you're looking at near certain regional famine conditions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Inflation in Europe and the United States will be the highest in living memory. If Hormuz is closed for multiple years, The probability of global famine and the death of billions starts to become highly probable. As a base case, I expect that the longer that the closure goes on, the more probable World War II style rationing becomes. We could be there within months even in rich countries. Reducing consumption and limiting waste is going to become very important. Creating non-industrial fertilizer systems will eventually become essential. This essentially means free grazing and animal husbandry and even utilizing human waste. Good farmland that can produce food with no synthetic inputs could become extremely valuable.



China sellside insight: #tungsten is the perfect conviction (their words) - in WW1, tungsten was more expensive than gold, and during the 70s cold war era, tungsten price surged 700% in just 1 year. Current global stockpile at low levels. #moly is the cheaper replacement for tung

Introducing the first $SGD (Singapore Dollar) offramp on @HyperliquidX Receive it in your Singapore bank account or any other $SGD account within 5 minutes. Liquid banking.



Global aluminum supply growth is capped while demand keeps rising. Aluminum setting up for a second leg higher. $CENX $AA $CSTM $KALU









Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: ‘Our armed forces are waiting for the entry of the US Navy into the Strait of Hormuz and the arrival of the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford.’




قوات امريكية حاولت الانزال في مضيق هرمز وحرس الثورة الأيراني وقوات البحريه في الجيش الإيراني تشتبك معهم وإلى الآن اعتقال جنود امريكيين وحرق سفينه ترافقهم لشل حركه العدو ابتعدوا الان بحسب المصادر مسافه بعيده عن اقاليم الحدود البحرية الإيرانية وحرس الثورة يطاردهم



The greatest sacrifice one can make is to give up one’s life for another, in this case for hundreds of millions of Americans, 90 million freedom-loving Iranians, and the rest of the world from whom a nuclear and terrorist threat is in the process of being removed. Words are inadequate to honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice.


