*Walter Bloomberg
185.9K posts

*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaone
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Geneva, Switzerland Katılım Ağustos 2014
38 Takip Edilen1.3M Takipçiler

MORGAN STANLEY DELAYS FED RATE CUT OUTLOOK
Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September and December, pushing back its earlier forecast of June and September.
The shift reflects a more cautious Fed after the latest meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling that clear progress on inflation is still needed. Rising oil prices and geopolitical risks are adding uncertainty and complicating the Fed’s policy path.
The bank sees a balanced stance from the Fed but notes markets may face volatility in the meantime. It warns the biggest risk is that rate cuts could be delayed further—or not happen at all—unless economic growth weakens sharply.
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US HOUSEHOLD WEALTH HITS RECORD AS STOCKS DRIVE GAINS
US household net worth rose $2.2 trillion to a record $184.1 trillion in Q4, fueled mainly by a $1.6 trillion surge in equity holdings as stocks rallied on AI and earnings optimism.
Real estate values slipped by about $347 billion amid a weak housing market. Meanwhile, consumer borrowing grew at a modest 3.3% pace, with slower mortgage growth but stronger non-mortgage credit.
Business debt growth cooled, while federal borrowing remained strong. Household deposits also climbed 3.3% to a record $20.5 trillion.
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JPMORGAN CUTS S&P 500 OUTLOOK AS OIL SHOCK RAISES RECESSION RISK
JPMorgan has lowered its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 7,500 as surging oil prices—driven by the Iran conflict—heighten recession risks.
The bank warns markets may be underestimating the economic impact of higher energy costs. While investors focus on inflation, JPMorgan sees a bigger threat to consumer demand, which could weaken growth. Historically, oil spikes above 30% often trigger demand destruction and have frequently preceded recessions.
In the near term, the S&P 500 could fall further, especially after dropping below its 200-day moving average—a bearish signal. If selling continues, the index may find support around 6,000–6,200.
Although JPMorgan still expects a recovery later in the year, supported by investment and stimulus, gains are likely to be more limited due to ongoing geopolitical risks.

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ECB SOURCES: APRIL LIKELY TOO EARLY FOR ANY RATE HIKE, JUNE MORE LIKELY
ECB SOURCES: GOVERNORS CONSIDER BASELINE PROJECTIONS ALREADY OUTDATED
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
🚨 ECB SOURCES: DISCUSSION OVER POSSIBLE RATE HIKES MAY NEED TO START IN APRIL, UNLESS THERE IS A QUICK RESOLUTION IN MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
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