Chance
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Chance
@ChanceEVs
Sports Enthusiast | +EV Sports Bettor | Marine Vet | All bets tracked on Pikkit
For MLB regular season hits leader, Ronald Acuna Jr. (+2000, now +1600), Jacob Wilson (+2500, now +1500), Jackson Chourio (+4000) and Jung Hoo Lee (+12000) will be the four plays that I'll be riding while attempting to forget about the Trea Turner (+1800) and Bo Bichette (+8500) tickets from last season that injury derailed. Acuna Jr. is the simplest of the four to underline as one of the best players in the entire league who led MLB in hits with 217 during his NL MVP season in 2023. Since then, knee issues have cut short two seasons yet we saw a glimpse of the dynamic hitting prowess that he was capable of in '25 via .290/.417/.935 although the OBP jump had more to do with his BB% jumping to 17.2% than his slightly over hit per game production. Despite the dampened xBA (.263, 73rd PER) which doesn't hold a candle to '21 (.290, 96th PER), '22 (.270, 85th PER) and '23 (.351, 100th PER), his other numbers every bit as dominant as we've grown accustomed to seeing from RAJ. He finished in the 92nd PER or higher in xSLG (.535), AVG EV (92.7), barrel % (15.7%), hard hit % (52.5%) and BB% (17.2%) which despite being a depressant to hits still shows an advanced hitter who doesn't necessarily need a bump on AB put into play to rack up gaudy totals. There's enough smoke about him being moved back to leadoff for the Atlanta Braves who had their most success with him as a lineup catalyst and with his renewed health, he's a must play here. In the first few months of the season, Wilson was one of the biggest surprises in baseball as he was hitting .339 going into June when injuries derailed his season. Yet, once you isolate July next to the production of the remaining season, it's hard not to be excited by his potential in '26: April: .330/.343/.797 May: .368/.437/.975 June: .323/.364/.789 July: .140/.189/.409 Aug: .333/.353/.929 Sept: .298/.359/.775 Outside of a wildly out of character July, Wilson was a .320 or above hitter in 4 of the 6 months he played in. Furthermore, a miniscule 5.2% BB% (13th PER) puts him in the high average, low walk group of Bobby Witt Jr and Bo Bichette who innately have a head start due to the combination of factors. His xBA (.277, 90th PER) and lack of swing and miss (99th PER or higher in whiff % and K%) make him arguably the most appealing play in this group and co-main play along with RAJ with multiple tickets. Chourio is a budding star with plenty of ups and downs in his career, yet still has most MLB fans penciling him in for stardom despite the low points. He has yet to eclipse a .270 average during his first two seasons in the majors, yet he still finished 52nd in hits (148) despite playing in only 131 games. He's less about actualized beneath the hood metrics and more about untapped potential and advantageous lineup positioning as the assumed leadoff hitter for the Milwaukee Brewers. After a .267 xBA in '24 (84th PER), he had a down year via .247 xBA (46th PER) which was largely on the back of one outlier month among the others where he hit .367/.408/1.008 in July. Still, he's one of the few that could join the previously listed group with Wilson that has good to great hitting ability and a low BB% (5.1%, 12th PER) that can make up for plenty of outs recorded. Up until the injury, he was pushing for the lead in '25 and so nothing should have us considering that we've seen the best of a 21 year old with a little more than a 1000 PA in his career just coming into his own. Finally, Lee has arguably disappointed in his first two seasons yet he's probably my favorite long shot here after we saw him actualize some of his immense talent. He too has failed to hit over .270 in his first two seasons in the majors, yet the 27 year old with a lifetime average of .340 in the KBO still profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter in the spacious Oracle Park. He quietly finished with a .277 xBA (90th PER) with a reasonable 7.6% BB% (42nd PER) while flashing elite-elite numbers that were in 95th PER or higher in squared up % (34.9%), whiff % (13.1%) and K% (11.5%). It's merely the matter of having him leadoff in '26 or hitting 2nd that will make or break his contention here as either materializing will have him squarely in the conversation all season long. #GamblingTwitter #gambitgemfutures
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