CropProphet

Well, look at that. The EC AIFS weather forecast is now in CropProphet. The AIFS has emerged as the leading AI-based wx forecast model tracked by commodity traders. Advance your weather forecast info: bit.ly/TryCropProphet

Analyze the impact of weather on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet

Here is a map showing the predicted 2026 first corn planting date for each state, based on a state-level median regression estimate. Several southern states may already have recorded their first non-zero USDA corn planting progress report date. Over the next several weeks, most remaining corn-reporting states are projected to reach their first corn planting date. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Plant2026

Corn planting begins April 1, and the next 14 days will be important to monitor from a precipitation standpoint. The ECMWF ensemble mean forecasts U.S. corn production-weighted precipitation at 185% of normal from March 30 to April 12. The wettest signal is centered on southeast Iowa, western Illinois, and northeast Missouri, where totals of 4 to 6 inches are forecasted. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #USDA #Plant2026

Analyze the impact of weather on grains using CropProphet: bit.ly/TryCropProphet

The first USDA non-zero corn planting progress report for the 2026 growing season is approaching quickly. Historical trends show the first non-zero report has been occurring earlier over time across Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa. Current projections for the first 2026 report are: Illinois: April 13th Indiana: April 20th Iowa: April 20th The next few weeks of precipitation forecasts will be critical to monitor. #OATT #AgWx #AgWeather #Corn #Soybeans #USDA #Plant2026

Try CropProphet here: bit.ly/TryCropProphet

Wildfire activity has intensified rapidly across Nebraska in recent weeks. This animation shows wildfire polygons and incident locations across Nebraska, overlaid on Nebraska counties’ share of total U.S. corn production. Pre-season wildfires can create significant challenges for farmers, including field damage, infrastructure losses, and planting delays. In many cases, however, planting can still proceed following cleanup and necessary repairs. As of March 22, 2026, the Morrill and Cottonwood fires alone account for 770,318 acres burned in Nebraska. #OATT #AgWx #AgWeather #Wildfire #Nebraska #Corn #Wildfires

We will be at the @NGFA 130th annual convention on March 22-24 in Nashville, TN! Stop by Booth #105 and meet Joshua Nagelberg to see how your team can block out the “noise” of social media speculation about yield and focus on objective weather analytics. We’ll be demonstrating how trading desks use CropProphet to remove the guesswork of estimating weather’s impact on crops. Feel free to stop by the booth or set a time to meet with us while you’re there: meetings.hubspot.com/josh-nagelberg… #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #NGFA #Corn #Soybeans #Grain #Grains

US winter wheat growing regions have experienced below normal minimum temperatures over the last few days. Plots are ordered by percent of national production. Time will tell if the recent freezing temperatures will have an impact on the winter wheat crop. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #WinterWheat #Weather

A comparison of the evolving US weather events to 2012.

March, April, and perhaps even May monthly records will fall next week in the historic western U.S. heat wave. Here's a tool to query ERA5 monthly/annual records for a few variables s2s.worldclimateservice.com/wcs/era5_recor…

Schedule a meeting at NGFA with Josh Nagelberg here: meetings.hubspot.com/josh-nagelberg…

CropProphet users avoided the January NASS surprise. Stop by Booth #105 at NGFA to see how our crop yield forecasts work and start preparing yourself for a successful 2026 grain trading year. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #NGFA #Corn #Soybeans #USDA #NASS

Use CropProphet to evaluate the impact of weather on grain markets: bit.ly/TryCropProphet

Recent market commentary framed excessive rain as a key issue for Brazil soybeans. Our production-weighted analysis suggests a different broader picture. Using the Point-in-Time Weather Forecast API, the attached animation shows Brazil soybean production-weighted cumulative precipitation, expressed as a percent of normal, from January 1 through March 8 for each year from 2010 to 2026. In the chart, 2025 is shown in orange, while the animated red line follows 2026 against the historical range. Through March 8, 2026 ranks as the driest January 1 to March 8 period in our dataset going back to 2010 on a production-weighted basis. At the national scale, that points to dryness being the more dominant signal rather than excessive rain. For grain traders, the implication is straightforward: if the market remains focused on a broad wet-weather narrative, it may understate the supply risk tied to drier conditions across Brazil’s most important soybean-producing areas. We are confident in our data sources and analytics. Who do you believe? #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Brazil #Soybeans #Yield #Production #Rain #Drought

@NGFA Feel free to stop by the booth or set a time to meet with me while you’re there: meetings.hubspot.com/josh-nagelberg…

We will be at the @NGFA 130th annual convention on March 22-24 in Nashville, TN! Stop by Booth #105 and meet Joshua Nagelberg to see how your team can block out the “noise” of social media speculation about yield and focus on objective weather analytics. We’ll be demonstrating how trading desks use CropProphet to remove the guesswork of estimating weather’s impact on crops. Feel free to stop by the booth or set a time to meet with me while you’re there: meetings.hubspot.com/josh-nagelberg… #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #NGFA #Corn #Soybeans #Grain #Grains

@HTSCommodities Thank you - we greatly appreciate it! Thank you for always interacting with our posts.

@CropProphet This is a really great post.

Even though trading by “gut feel” is no longer viable, unsubstantiated grain market speculation still runs rampant. It’s important to support decision-making with objective, repeatable analysis. This weeks’ weather forecasts have brought about many claims of drought-busting precipitation. Let’s take a look. This US county-level analysis shows how much 14-day accumulated precipitation is required to reduce the US Drought Monitor drought severity by one category. The 00z AIFS-ENS, ECMWF, and GEFS 14-day accumulated precipitation forecasts generally do not exceed these drought-reducing categories over corn/soybean producing regions. The forecast maps show meaningful precipitation, and the south-central United States stands out as the area with the best chance of rainfall amounts that could reduce the drought category. Elsewhere across much of the Corn Belt, however, forecast totals generally do not match the precipitation thresholds needed for a one-category drought improvement. Will the rainfall help soil moisture? Yes. Will the rainfall, if the forecasts verify, reduce drought levels by one category across most of the Corn Belt? Probably not. #oatt #AgWx #AgWeather #Drought #Corn #Yield #USDA #USDM #Rain #AIFS #ECMWF #CornBelt

Analyze the impact of weather on grains: bit.ly/TryCropProphet