تغريدة مثبتة
I’m long Peloton at $4.
$345M in free cash flow.
$1.18B in cash (67% of market cap).
7 insiders bought in the last 90 days.
I read every earnings call. Here’s what I found.
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Eric Jackson
23.2K posts
Eric Jackson
@ericjackson
Rising Dynasty | Founder @emjcapital | @EventHorizonIQ | EMJX $SRXH | Board $BRR | 166 sensors → https://t.co/GJ5MtUejFI
North York انضم Mart 2007
281 يتبع148.5K المتابعون
Would be INCREDIBLE
wealthmoose@wealthmoose
🚨🇨🇦 The receipts are finally coming for the Carney government. 🏛️ U.S. investigator @nickshirleyy just confirmed Canada is his next target. While the "Adults in the Room" are vacationing in Rome, an American YouTuber is about to do the auditing they’ve been dodging for a year. The Hit List for Nick: ❌ The $26 Billion consultant bill. ❌ The 1.9 Million expiring visas with zero exit tracking. ❌ The "Indigenous" shell company scams revealed this morning. The world is watching. Let’s see how "principled" this government is under a real lens. 📉🛑 #CdnPoli #NickShirley #Canada #MarkCarney #Accountability #TaxpayerFraud
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@maelan_sdmr I think there were a lot of latent OPEN fans of the stock and product and I think the same is true for PTON… a lot say “oh all exercise stuff is a fad” but the people who like PTON, like it a LOT!
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@ericjackson How do you explain that?! It's crazy!
I know Peloton was a very popular stock during covid
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My Friday Peloton blue sky $40+ thesis tweet from today
x.com/ericjackson/st…
has already passed my July 14th OPEN to $82 thesis tweet
x.com/ericjackson/st…
in terms of impressions....
Eric Jackson@ericjackson
Over the last month, my X impressions have exploded talking about $BTQQF $IREN and $CIFR because everyone is looking for the next $CVNA. We think we just found another. @EMJCapital has taken a position in $OPEN — and we believe it could be a 100-bagger over the next few years. Here’s why 🧵
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@ericjackson The legendary tweet that started it all... has been surpassed... OMG..
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@kishanshah I got my 2 (tread and bike) before Barry... and you're right! They're built like tanks
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I read through the substack, great analysis. I have been a customer since 2014 and went to a few of their early user conferences. Their SBC and share count increased 10%. The downside is quality of hardware (McCarthy cut plenty of manufacturing corners making some of the base bikes less durable than older bikes), the pricing increases in the subscription fee which feels expensive now for the library and the newer instructors don’t have the same cult like following as the original gen. The stock has been said to be a takeout target but I don’t believe that.
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I’m long Peloton at $4.
$345M in free cash flow.
$1.18B in cash (67% of market cap).
7 insiders bought in the last 90 days.
I read every earnings call. Here’s what I found.
English
@ericjackson I’m excited about this one! The stock is so beaten down and has been stagnant for awhile.
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Uploading a new premium video now for more on my PTON thesis.
This is the full breakdown behind the PTON thesis — the transcripts, churn math, and what actually needs to happen on May 8 for this to work.
Most of what people are focused on right now isn’t the real signal.
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Eric Jackson أُعيد تغريده
@ericjackson As long as they never get rid of Cody, I am here for it.
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A few people asked why I dropped a 9,000-word Peloton piece today.
Friday. Market down. Nobody paying attention.
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Good ideas don’t wait for the right day.
They show up when they show up.
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If it’s real, people will find it.
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@iamjohnbaiano @AMarginCall Ha… haven’t looked at that one in a while!
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@ericjackson @AMarginCall I thought it was going to be $JMIA as the next 100 bagger - Ok EJax, I see you !!
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@ericjackson so bummed how badly this was run at peak...seems impossible they could blow it this badly
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@howardlindzon 🤣 we need to workshop it at the next fireside chat!
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Opendoor should merge with peloton and gove one away with every home sold...
starts as a bike...ends as furniture...
Eric Jackson@ericjackson
I’m long Peloton at $4. $345M in free cash flow. $1.18B in cash (67% of market cap). 7 insiders bought in the last 90 days. I read every earnings call. Here’s what I found.
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@Danarriola13 hey to each his own... no worries... we will see... thx a lot
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I usually like your analysis, but I’m not buying Peloton. They got a big COVID bump, and fitness is full of fads. At the end of the day, it’s still just a bike with a screen. I also feel we are headed into a recession and if so the last thing people want to buy is a peloton…
What I’m seeing now is a shift toward community—people want to get out, connect, and be part of something. That’s why run clubs and group fitness are taking off.
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The market thinks Peloton is dead.
The CEO is buying stock.
That gap matters.
Day 220.
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Thanks for all the messages. There are clearly still a LOT of Peloton fans out there.
Although I love finding 100-baggers, I do short stocks for time to time. On my substack yesterday, I published a 7500 piece on the private credit space and why I'm short FSK and OWL
eventhorizoniq.substack.com/p/pebbles
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Eric Jackson أُعيد تغريده
20 years ago today.
Amusing that adults now treat flip phones and iPod as virtues rather than vices.
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Correction: the Form 4 filings I referenced were option exercises, not open market purchases. I've updated the full piece. The thesis is unchanged — $345M FCF, 5x multiple, improving churn, Chewy comp. But the insider framing was wrong and I should have checked the transaction codes. Updated piece on the Substack.
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