Eric Jackson

Universal Music has returned -12.7% since its September 2021 IPO. Spotify, the platform that licenses Drake's catalog from Universal, returned +73.8%. Sir Lucian Grainge collected ~$521M in compensation across the same 4 years. Iceman drops in 19 days. A thread. 🧵

@ericjackson has pull! 🔥😭

26 days ago I posted: "DAVE's CEO conviction language just hit the highest score in the company's history." DAVE was $166. Today: $279. +68% in 26 days. Every sensor call tracked in public — hits and misses. Free Telegram: t.me/EventHorizonIQ

@ditinlongisland Cohen hurt my head... i haven't seen the Leafs one yet

Today I watched 2 of the most uncomfortable pressers ever The new leafs management presser And Ryan cohens buying eBay interview Hope your head isn’t hurting @ericjackson

Iceman is the leverage album, not the breakup album. Drake re-signs at UMG. $830M-$1.3B range, midpoint $1.07B. Cash advance + Tier-1 masters back + OVO Sound equity + Pershing-pressure premium quantified. Receipt-locked. Resolves in 12-18 months. open.substack.com/pub/eventhoriz…

Let’s go Pistons!

Incredible interview but I don’t know if you should lose all the brain cells watching the FULL version of this… sheesh

Today again

Ran into drake at Sotto Sotto last night

I called Iceman first-week at 250K. Today the math says 525K. Here's the rigor: → Billboard ad-supported weighting bumped Jan 2026: ~20% unit boost on typical paid/ad mix → Apr 30, 2026: Drake's catalog hit a 2026 record streaming day with zero releases → Taylor TTPD benchmark — the only release at Drake-scale in 24 months: 891M streams / 156M followers = 5.7 per follower → Drake's 110M Spotify followers > Kendrick + Future + 21 Savage combined Backtest: applied the framework to TTPD pre-release. Predicted 2.5M, actual 2.61M. Within 4.2% ex-ante. Same lens that called Carvana from $15 and confirmed Bombardier's turnaround Apr 30. Sensitivity: 80% activation = 410K. 100% = 580K. 120% = 720K. The 20-80 percentile is 450-650K. Hip-hop floor: Kendrick Lamar's GNX did 319K first-week (Nov 2024) — 2nd-largest hip-hop first-week of the streaming era. My 525 call is 1.65x GNX, driven by 4x follower base. Joe Budden's pod went around the table: Marc 500, Ice 400s, Flip/Budden/Parks 350. Mode 350, avg 391. They were closer than my old 250. The 100K alpha gap is what they didn't price in. Open variable: RBX v Spotify (filed Nov 2025) alleges Drake's streams partly fraudulent. If they win on merits, model updates -10-25%. This is a first-week units prediction. Not a culture call. Kendrick won 2024. Both can be true. Day 258. 11 days to Iceman. SALVE or SLAVE.

Meek Mill speaks

Eight months ago, Drake educated the audience on the “first responders” in the media and their campaign strategy for his upcoming album ICEMAN. We are witnessing it unfold exactly as he described.

@ADtheBand @antants6 Side note: Mr. Wendal is my favorite track in your catalog. Economic-status critique was the structural register before the language for it existed.

Speech, the historical layer you're naming is what I was missing — Ja Rule, MC Shan, Meek-without-collab as the slump rule, Jay-Z and Drake as exceptions. Throughline is catalog depth. Drake has 300 songs over 100M Spotify streams. The catalog absorbs the loss most artists don't survive.

The Super Bowl halftime put Drake's ex on stage to dance to his enemy's diss song. 100 million people saw it. Almost nobody clocked the structure. Roc Nation runs halftime ($25M NFL deal). Roc Nation is affiliated with Complex Music. Complex ran polls during the actual battle: 80% Drake, 76% Drake. 130K votes. Today Drake gets 58M daily Spotify streams. Kendrick gets 19M. With zero Drake releases in 2026. The data said Drake won. The infrastructure rewrote it. Day 256. 13 days to Iceman.

@ADtheBand @antants6 Speech, appreciate this. You're naming the framework: points, not hype. Bars, streams, post-battle relevance, all measurable. Your catalog made conscious structural critique possible inside hip-hop in the first place. Tennessee shaped a generation. Honored to have you weigh in.

@ericjackson @antants6 1) who won a rap battle is subjective. 2.) Fans of HipHop SHOULD base it on bars, not hype. 3.) true appreciation for lyricist should care how factual the bars are well. 4.) Streaming stats & cultural relevance DO matter post battle. Drake WINS on points: 3 & 4 objectively

@geswolfcrest Just AI... like it or lump it

@ericjackson Must be another Liberal funded poll.

The same AI system that called Brexit, Trump, and Carney just scored 16 potential Canadian Conservative leadership candidates. Two findings the model was clear on: 1. Pierre Poilievre will never win. His register has worsened from −2.8 to −5.8 since the election. People have heard him. People have judged him. People have rejected him. 2. Mark Mulroney scored +8.3 — highest in the field among candidates with a national path. The 15-point gap between Mark (+8.3) and his brother Ben (−7.1) is the cleanest calibration test in the dataset. But the timing isn't knowable from the model. The Canadian Milei moment arrives the morning after the housing illusion does — and that's the variable the model can't see. Full piece on EventHorizonIQ. open.substack.com/pub/eventhoriz…

Drake has been spotted filming many videos recently: • The explosion • Adonis in a cop car • Riding on the ICEMAN truck • At the cemetery He is locked in & cooking 🧊

@tsxir see Mark Carney for what's required

Did your modelling include language or if candidate was bilingual? Based on Grok, being bilingual helps nationally. Grok: Bilingualism isn't a massive national vote multiplier (maybe 2–4 pts total in a good scenario), but it's disproportionately powerful for the 78 QC seats + ~20 OLMC battlegrounds. Skip it, and you're effectively conceding ~25–30% of the map before the campaign starts. In your next tracker or model, I'd treat French fluency as a hard filter in Quebec/OLMC and a soft credibility booster nationally. If you have specific riding-level data or a party in mind, I can refine the estimates further. I agree that AI is amazing and does certain tasks with ease -> the more data the better the output.

@tsxir AI can tell who will bond with voters and who won’t and she can - more if she crafts a national appeal

@ericjackson I don't see how Smith is the highest, she doesn't speak French.