Global OSINT

NEW: US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran can now effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will — a powerful new capability acquired as a direct result of the war, three sources tell CNN. “We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait — a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one source familiar with the assessments tells CNN. Iran has also learned it can leverage targeted strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure and potentially deploy Houthi forces to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait as an economic “nuclear option” if negotiations collapse. A senior US official says Iran cannot access any benefits of the framework agreement unless the Strait remains open and Tehran abides by its commitments. The assessments underscore the lasting strategic cost of initiating the conflict without fully accounting for Iran’s ability to weaponize the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.

British Media reports that a Russian Navy ship opened fire on a British vessel on the English Channel The Admiral Grigorovich, a Russian Black Sea Fleet frigate, fired warning shots at a British-flagged yacht in the English Channel on Monday after the two vessels came into close proximity. British media reports that the Russian warship has been operating near UK waters in recent weeks, with its activities including escorting shadow oil tankers through the area. The Royal Navy's HMS Mersey was shadowing the Russian frigate, and HMS Tyne sent a seaboat to gather details from the yacht's crew. British media claims that no injuries or damage were reported, and the shots were fired outside UK territorial waters.

Mike Huckabee: Fortunately @SecRubio made clear that Iran & Hezbollah aren’t linked in a deal. @Israel doesn’t need Iran permission to defend itself. The tether of terror must end.

The UK Ministry of Defence has confirmed it is investigating the incident involving a Russian warship in the English Channel, Sky News reports. A UK-registered yacht reported that the Russian vessel fired warning shots from around 500 yards away, roughly 20 nautical miles south of the Isle of Wight and outside UK territorial waters. No injuries or damage have been reported. Authorities are treating the incident as isolated. The Royal Navy’s HMS Mersey was monitoring the Russian ship at the time.

#NEWS Eurosam is in talks with Kuwait and Hungary over potential SAMP/T NG air defense packages, while around 15 countries, including Switzerland and Estonia, are evaluating the system, according to Bloomberg. The Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG is gaining interest as a European alternative to the U.S. Patriot system, which faces supply shortages and growing global demand. Eurosam says the system is NATO-compatible and the only European-made air defense system with anti-ballistic missile capabilities. Production of the Aster missiles used by SAMP/T NG is expected to double to around 180 missiles this year and exceed 300 annually by 2027. The system has already entered service with Italy and France, while Denmark selected it for export delivery starting in 2028.

Destruction in Yater, southern Lebanon, as a result of IDF operations.

#NEWS Qatar is preparing to rapidly increase its LNG production once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with plans to restore most of its export capacity within two months, according to Bloomberg. QatarEnergy has informed buyers that it expects output to reach around 50% of capacity one month after safe navigation resumes through the strait, rising to approximately 80% within two months.

Wes Streeting told POLITICO that he has secured enough support from Labour MPs to enter a potential leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer. Streeting is advocating for a “genuine contest” rather than allowing Andy Burnham to succeed unchallenged. However, he is not expected to launch a challenge himself and instead believes Starmer should set out a timetable for his departure after Thursday’s by-election.

The U.S. military plans to establish a permanent, war-ready weapons stockpile for the Marine Corps on Australia’s southeast coast, beyond the range of most Chinese missiles, according to tender documents and officials speaking to AFP. Around $30 million will be invested in building storage facilities in rural Victoria to house U.S. military weapons, with the aim of improving the responsiveness of American forces across the Indo-Pacific region.

NEW: Israel requested to see the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran but was rejected, according to Israeli Channel 12.

The leaders of the G7 nations gathered for the traditional group photo at the G7 summit in Évian, France

Swiss Foreign Ministry: The U.S.-Iran MOU signing ceremony is set for Friday at the Bürgenstock resort.

New footage shows massive cracks splitting the Palu–Napu highway after a powerful 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, disrupting a key route linking Palu with the remote Napu Valley.

President Trump on Israeli military action in Lebanon: "You don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody, because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they're not all Hezbollah."

VP JD Vance said the foiled UFC 250 attack plot is another sign of the country’s increasingly heated political climate. “This is what happens when people turn the rhetoric up so loud that disagreeing with somebody becomes a cause for violence,” Vance said, calling on leaders to lower the temperature while arguing much of today’s political violence is coming from the left. Vance also praised the FBI and federal law enforcement for stopping what he said could have been a major tragedy. He noted that agents rarely receive recognition for the attacks they prevent, saying they often only get blamed when attacks succeed.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump met with President of the United Arab Emirates Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan today at the G7 summit in France and took questions after as well. On the Iran deal, President Trump mentioned that he would send the text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding to Congress for review, following questions regarding the deal from the press.

#BREAKING The FBI first received intelligence on the plot on June 10, days before it was carried out. A Signal group used to coordinate the operation had 23 members - 5 have been arrested so far. One of those arrested told investigators the goal was to target "billionaires and capitalists" receiving money from the Jewish lobby AIPAC.

Ukrainian drones struck targets across Russia overnight, triggering a fire at an oil depot in the village of Poltavskaya in Krasnodar Krai, a facility that serves as a link between regional fuel distribution networks and refining infrastructure. Drone activity was also reported toward the Moscow region, while explosions were heard in occupied Mariupol. Russia's Defense Ministry said that 172 Ukrainian drones were intercepted during the latest wave of attacks. Russia launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 132 strike drones against Ukraine overnight, according to Ukrainian authorities. Air defenses neutralized 114 drones, but missiles and UAVs struck 9 locations across the country. In Balakliya, Kharkiv region, 8 people were injured. One person was wounded in the Dnipropetrovsk region, while a drone strike on a livestock complex in Kirovohrad region killed more than 20 cattle. In Kherson, a Russian drone struck a minibus, killing 1 person and injuring 3 others.

#NEWS Chinese universities are overhauling their academic offerings to better align higher education with national development priorities, cutting thousands of programs deemed outdated and replacing them with new technology-focused degrees, SCMP reports. Between 2021 and 2025, universities revoked or suspended 12,200 undergraduate programs and introduced 10,200 new ones, meaning more than 30% of degree programs were adjusted. The reductions were concentrated in arts, humanities, foreign languages, and management, while new programs increasingly focus on fields tied to Beijing’s economic goals, including AI and embodied intelligence.