JAZ Macro

how does it AUTOMATICALLY open?? does ANYONE have a brain in this administration?

are they seriously trying to play the "is the president competent enough to comprehend what a war with iran would have entailed"????

so trump declares victory, and SoH is left in iran's hands why is oil down in that scenario???? so why is equities up in that outcome???? this is literally the WORST case scenario....

it would be more believable if you can do something about it WHILST the military operation is ONGOING.....

talks must be going REALLLLY fantastically well.... i've heard some people say "well of course you don't admit to negotiations so you don't weaken your hand" BS if that's the case, why is trump yelling and screaming it every opportunity he gets?? because it's NOT real but he wants you to think it is....

@spotgamma does he though.... this is trump.....

trump knows that if he gets the gamma going to the upside jpm collar kicks in and gives him another 1% intraday rally and then people will read that rally as “success is happening in iran”

New: Trump pardoned nursing home owner Joseph Schwartz just 3 months into his sentence for a $39 million fraud scheme. Meanwhile, families who won multimillion-dollar wrongful death suits against Schwartz haven’t collected a cent. propub.li/4di7xXs

What a fucking embarrassment. American troops are being sent into harm’s way in Iran and this fucking idiot is doing his double jerkoff dance while waving a sword, like a drunk uncle at a wedding. This is who has the nuclear codes. America is a parody.

guess we are at the "threatening war crimes" stage of the 'excursion' yep, very very compelling.......

are these conversations you're having with yourself in the mirror????

lol now you're trying to taco without even being able to offer anything.... embarassing can reshort $SPX is you covered on friday daily pump is over.... SoH still closed, and not even close to getting it back open

I don't think people understand the gravity of the situation as the UN is preparing for possible nuclear weapon use in Iran. This is a picture of Tehran. For you uneducated, untraveled, never-served, warhawks licking your chops at the thought of bombing it. It's not some low population desert. There are families, children, family pets. Regular working class people with dreams. You're sick to want war. Tehran is a city of nearly 10,000,000 people. Imagine nuking Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, or beyond, bombed with nuclear weapons. I gave up my diplomatic career to leak this information. I suspended my duties so as not to be part of or a witness to this crime against humanity, in an attempt to prevent a nuclear winter before it is too late. Yesterday, nearly ten million people protested “No Kings” in the United States. The possibility of the use of nuclear weapons must be taken very seriously. It's dangerous. Act now. Spread this message worldwide. Take the streets. Protest for our humanity and future. Only the people can stop it. History will remember us.

Republicans are not serious people. Trevor Milton, convicted of defrauding investors, was pardoned after pouring nearly $2 million into pro-Trump political committees. Paul Walczak, convicted of siphoning $10 million from employees’ paychecks, was pardoned weeks after his mother contributed $1 million to a Trump super PAC — her largest-ever political donation. Julio Herrera Velutini, a foreign billionaire charged with bribery, received a pardon after his 25-year-old daughter — whose only previous political donation was $20 to Pete Buttigieg — suddenly gave $3.5 million to a Trump super PAC. $2 billion in restitution wiped out allegedly by pardons sold at $1-2 million a pop. It’s a pretty good deal if you can get it. democrats-judiciary.house.gov/media-center/p… ms.now/news/justice-i…

@JacobShap but THESE are the type of people that trump is listening to..... which really explains a LOT but also, tells you about how there is just nooooooooo plan in this current situation

The strategy is not obsolete, the US is exposed to the global economy, and Hormuz is critical to the global economy. Remarkable to me that I even have to say this.

Trump in 2008: Anyone who invades the Middle East under false pretenses should be impeached. Let’s make sure it goes viral here.

does anyone with any semblance of intelligence actually believe this sht???? anyone?

🇮🇷🇺🇸: Steve Witkoff wants Iran to Soin the League of Nations Someone should tell him the League of Nations ceased to exist in 1949 and was replaced by the United Nations, of which Iran is a part. This is why you don’t let real estate guys negotiate international conflicts

Operational Success, Strategic Failure in Iran This is not a matter of opinion. It is a matter of facts. 1. Iran today is weaker than it was before the conflict, but it is also more radical. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has further consolidated its influence over decision-making, eroding what little internal balance once existed within the regime. Iran was never moderate under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but there were previously competing centers of power. That dynamic has largely disappeared, leaving a more ideologically rigid system in place. 2. To be sure, the United States and Israel have inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military capabilities. Their operational and intelligence superiority is unquestioned. But battlefield success does not automatically translate into strategic victory. Iran has demonstrated, time and again, an ability to rebuild. Nowhere is this more consequential than in the nuclear domain. With roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, Tehran retains a latent capability that cannot simply be bombed away or seized. Counting destroyed targets is not the same as achieving a durable strategic outcome. 3. The regional picture further complicates the narrative of success. Key Gulf actors, such as Oman and Qatar, have pushed for de-escalation and, in some cases, openly criticized Israel’s role in the conflict. Qatar continues to maintain functional ties with Iran. Even among U.S. partners that normalized relations with Israel, such as the UAE and Bahrain, public unease is evident. Saudi Arabia, is unlikely to advance normalization under current conditions surrounding the Palestinian issue. The idea of a cohesive regional alignment against Iran remains overstated. 4. More fundamentally, the campaign’s implicit objective was not merely to degrade capabilities, but to alter the strategic landscape, ultimately by creating conditions for regime change. That outcome has not materialized. Instead, hardline leadership remains in place, now facing incentives to reassess its nuclear posture. A regime that feels both threatened and vindicated may be more,not less, inclined to pursue a nuclear weapon. 5. If the conflict ends under current conditions, Iran may emerge as the strategic winner despite suffering tactical losses. It can claim resilience in the face of sustained pressure from two of the world’s most capable militaries. Meanwhile, global competitors of the United States stand to benefit. Russia gains breathing room and geopolitical leverage, while China watches Washington become further entangled in the Middle East. 6. Even the situation in the Strait of Hormuz underscores the paradox. What was open at the outset of the conflict may now require diplomatic or military effort to reopen—turning a return to the status quo into a perceived achievement. 7. There would be no more positive development for the Middle East than the fall of the Iranian regime. That remains the strategic prize. But it is far from clear that the current campaign, as it stands, has advanced that outcome. If anything, there is a growing risk it has produced the opposite effect. 8. The more immediate question is how this ends. The administration faces a narrowing set of options, none of them particularly good. One path is a negotiated agreement. But under current conditions, such a deal is unlikely to be favorable. From Tehran’s perspective, the regime has withstood sustained military pressure and can claim a form of strategic resilience. That perception matters. It reduces any incentive to compromise on the core pillars of its security and ideology such as its missile program, its drone capabilities, and ultimately its nuclear posture. A deal reached under these circumstances risks formalizing, rather than rolling back, Iran’s long-term threat. The alternative is escalation: a broader military campaign, potentially including the seizure of strategic assets such as Kharg Island or contested Gulf or Hormuz straits. But such moves would not be decisive. Iran is not a state that can be coerced into collapse through limited territorial losses. Instead, escalation would likely prolong the conflict, expand its scope, and increase the risks of regional spillover—without guaranteeing a strategic breakthrough. In short, there is no good option as long as this regime in Tehran remains in place and at present, it is not going anywhere. 9. There is also a second-order effect that deserves attention in Washington. The U.S.-Israel alliance remains a cornerstone of Israel’s security and long-term future. That is not in question. But it is less clear that this campaign strengthens Israel’s standing in the United States. On the contrary, prolonged conflict, especially one that lacks a clear strategic end state, risks deepening political and public friction. If United States is being drawn into an open-ended Middle Eastern conflict without a clear payoff, the political cost for Israel could become significant. The bottom line is clear - this has been a remarkable operational performance, driven by close coordination between U.S. Central Command and Israel. But if it concludes without meaningful strategic change, it will be remembered as a strategic failure. The risk is not an Iran that is weakened and deterred, but one that adapts, emerging more determined, more radical, and potentially closer to a nuclear threshold, resembling Pakistan or North Korea rather than the "new" Venezuela for example #IranWar‌

Trump: Iran hit ‘world's biggest aircraft carrier from 17 angles we ran for our lives it was over' Pentagon had claimed laundry fire put USS Gerald Ford out of action

Trump pardoned 77 people this week that stole from Medicare. This flew under the radar. I believe Trump is selling pardons which is enough to send Trump away.