jacob l. shapiro

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jacob l. shapiro

jacob l. shapiro

@JacobShap

geopolitical analyst speaker @ https://t.co/Oye7CTDmwd writer @ https://t.co/yqb2Am7qmt podcaster @ https://t.co/TNFYeRLxeT

new orleans, la Katılım Mart 2011
2.6K Takip Edilen14.4K Takipçiler
jacob l. shapiro
jacob l. shapiro@JacobShap·
@of_zone7476 You’re moving the goalposts — Hezbollah in 2026 is not even close to the threat Egypt was in 1956
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Zone of Interest
Zone of Interest@of_zone7476·
@JacobShap Hezbollah are hardly innocent actors. They are an extension of the Islamic Republic The easiest way to avoid Israeli operations in the areas they control is to not use them as a base to attack Israel
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jacob l. shapiro
jacob l. shapiro@JacobShap·
The difference is in ‘56, israel faced existential threats from Egypt and syria which wanted to run back the failure of ‘48 and wipe Israel off the map. This was defensive aggression. In the year of our lord 2026 Israel faces no such threat (Israel IS the threat to these others) and also has a nuclear deterrent — it’s very hard to make a case that it’s moves are defensive in nature
شنشون@humanprovince

As part of the 1956 invasion of Egypt. Ben-Gurion wanted to topple Abdel Nasser, take the Sinai, dissolve Jordan, and conquer and settle the south of Lebanon up to the Litani. This was 8 years before the founding of the PLO and a quarter century before Hezbollah existed.

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Ricardo Reis
Ricardo Reis@R2Rsquared·
In 1507-15, the Portuguese crown built the fort of Our Lady of the Conception in Hormuz, to control trade from India and charge hefty tolls to passing ships. From the outset, holding the fort and controlling the Strait of Hormuz required constant fighting with local emirs; by 1662 the Shah of Persia (backed by British forces) took it for good. After a detailed account of the back-and-forth in a fierce and bloody seven‑month naval battle in 1521–22 in the Strait of Hormuz, Commander Saturnino Monteiro, in the first volume of his treatise "Batalhas e Combates da Marinha Portuguesa,” concluded: "...and thus ended this stupid and useless war of Hormuz, with everything remaining as it had been before."
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Alayna Treene
Alayna Treene@alaynatreene·
NEW: US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution and dependent at least in part on what lengths Trump is willing to go to force the Iranian regime’s hand, multiple administration and intelligence officials tell @CNN cnn.com/2026/03/20/pol…
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jacob l. shapiro
jacob l. shapiro@JacobShap·
@of_zone7476 Let’s say I accept that argument even though I think it is flawed — that doesn’t explain conquest of southern Lebanon with ground forces
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Zone of Interest
Zone of Interest@of_zone7476·
@JacobShap The only difference I can see is in timeframes. The Islamic Republic’s stated goal is the annihilation of Israel, whether tomorrow or in 10 years. If there was a risk of them getting nukes, and/or an opportunity to defang them for the long term, it’s still a defensive action
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jacob l. shapiro
jacob l. shapiro@JacobShap·
Man if I had a bajillion dollars these are the types of assets I’d try to acquire…
Brian Stelter@brianstelter

A second memo from Bari Weiss and Tom Cibrowski says CBS News Radio is shutting down. Here's the memo: Today, we informed our CBS News Radio team and approximately 700 affiliated stations that we will end the service on May 22, 2026. Unfortunately, this decision means that all positions within the CBS News Radio team are being eliminated.  We understand how difficult this news is for our staff and their colleagues, who have worked side by side with us to cover some of the most significant stories of our time. While this was a necessary decision, it was not an easy one.  A shift in radio station programming strategies, coupled with challenging economic realities, has made it impossible to continue the service.  We are sharing this announcement now to fulfill our commitments to our radio partners and affiliates, which require advance notice of the service’s conclusion. For nearly 100 years, CBS News Radio has delivered original reporting to the nation—from Edward R. Murrow’s World War II reports in London to today’s daily White House updates.  Our signature broadcast, “World News Roundup,” remains the longest-running newscast in the country.  CBS News Radio served as the foundation for everything we have built since 1927. The coming weeks will be difficult for the team members who have worked tirelessly at CBS News Radio.  We are committed to supporting these valued colleagues with care and respect as we wind down operations.  They have been critical to our success and remain treasured friends and professionals.  We thank them deeply for their contributions. Thank you all for your dedication and for the compassion you show one another as we move forward. Bari and Tom

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jacob l. shapiro
jacob l. shapiro@JacobShap·
@Hoarder035 Warranted is above my pay grade Hz is a serious threat but nothing compared to Egypt in 56 and was effectively destroyed by…pagers. Conquering the land south of the litani seems overkill / ulterior motives
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Joey Levine
Joey Levine@Hoarder035·
@JacobShap is defensive aggression only warranted when the threat is existential tho? and wouldn’t a reconstituted Hizbollah be an existential threat? I saw the devastation in Manara w/ my own eyes - it is certainly existential for those poor folks, at a minimum.
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David Taggart-PDMacro.com
David Taggart-PDMacro.com@DavidTaggart·
@JacobShap Jacob, our ignorance of history has no bounds. In an age where all the info in the world is literally in the palms of our hands, less people read entire articles let alone books than at any time in the past 200 or so years. this is the post-literate and post-fact society
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jacob l. shapiro
jacob l. shapiro@JacobShap·
@MinervaCap I think you are underestimating Ukraine. They are winning. Putin not only cannot get what he wants, he should be concerned with his regime’s survival.
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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
WOW. Just in the last two weeks, BYD showrooms around the world are seeing a surge in customer demand from people who are deciding that now is the time to switch to EVS, with oil prices so high. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Joe Weisenthal tweet media
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
It’s amazing to me how many resources must be devoted to geopolitical strategy, intelligence gathering, and war planning in the US and Russia; and yet the two most high-profile wars of the last five years involve a military superpower attempting a blitzkrieg decapitation of an opponent and appearing shocked and stunned and flummoxed when the attacked adversary doesn’t surrender but actually fights back
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