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When a Targaryen is born the gods flip a coin
Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@DrewPavlou
RFK Jr’s son fought for Ukraine and dated Taylor Swift. Sometimes the Kennedy gene skips a generation
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J. D.
2.2K posts
J. D.
@JamesDowell2
I do Machine Learning for healthcare quality measures. MA in Public Policy from University of Chicago.
Chicago, IL انضم Haziran 2012
770 يتبع141 المتابعون
@TedBaxterKnows @Kreiger_Nadir @brad_polumbo @Cjpearson @TheOmniLiberal What are the stats anomalies? I develop statistical measures for a living and am interested to discuss those. Promise I'll read what you link.
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Not necessarily.
1. Most were dismissed due to lack of standing
2. The ones that were dismissed due to lack of evidence occurred soon after the election and more evidence has come to light since. Which is why the Fulton County probe is going on right now.
People are entrenched in their views. Those who think the election was fair point to the early court cases as you did. People who are sure it was stolen rely on anecdotes, none of which prove that it was empirically, incontrovertibly stolen.
I'm in the middle. I think there are statistical anomalies that thus far have not been explained to my satisfaction and, given how aggressively the left was willing to lie to try to bring Trump down in the lead up to and aftermath of the 2016 election (and every year since), I'm open to the notion that they would do whatever was necessary to deny him a second term in 2020.
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Me: "CJ, do you believe the 2020 election was rigged and stolen?"
@Cjpearson: "We're talking about the future now, we're not talking about 2020."
@TheOmniLiberal: "That's a yes, by the way."
@Cjpearson: "It wasn't a yes."
@TheOmniLiberal: "Do you think that Trump lost the 2020 election? Did Biden win it?"
@Cjpearson: "President Biden was in the White House, was he not?"
Me: "I don't know why you can't just say YES, he LOST!"
Full panel: youtu.be/FHu0zcfkKmc
YouTube
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@peterrhague He's wrong, you're right, but it's also true that in a full scale nuclear exchange, LA would be no more. They'd target numerous warheads at it, as they would all major US cities
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Nuclear weapons are scary enough without having to make stuff up:
* Duck and cover is not pointless. If you’ve time to react then flying glass/collapsing buildings when the shockwave hits is your biggest immediate danger. A sturdy school desk will definitely help.
* Neither the Tsar Bomba nor Castle Bravo were deployable weapons. Modern nukes tend to be several orders of magnitude smaller than these test weapons, because the strategy is to pack multiple warheads per missile to make interception harder (MIRV)
It’s important to get facts right here.
Camus@newstart_2024
“One or two modern nuclear devices and Los Angeles is simply no more.” Eric Weinstein painted a sobering picture on Triggernometry. He explained that today’s hydrogen bombs are orders of magnitude more powerful than the ones that ended WWII. The Tsar Bomba and Castle Bravo showed we were already playing with forces we couldn’t fully control. A concentrated city hit by even one or two devices becomes instantly uninhabitable. The long-term effects (radiation, fallout, societal collapse) make “surviving” the war feel almost meaningless. Weinstein’s blunt takeaway: once it starts, everything we know about modern life is gone — whether from nuclear exchange or even a engineered pandemic. How close do you think we actually are to a nuclear or engineered pandemic scenario that changes everything?
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@TedBaxterKnows @Kreiger_Nadir @brad_polumbo @Cjpearson @TheOmniLiberal I develop statistical measures for a living and DO want to discuss those. What are they? Promise I'll read what you link.
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@Kreiger_Nadir @JamesDowell2 @brad_polumbo @Cjpearson @TheOmniLiberal You guys love to focus on the GA ballot video. That's a minor point. The statistical anomalies are far more compelling, but you don't want to discuss them
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@TedBaxterKnows @Kreiger_Nadir @brad_polumbo @Cjpearson @TheOmniLiberal Firstly, sorry if my reply was a little callous, my goal is genuinely to have discussions with others. Secondly, that is possible, but wouldn't at least a few have gained traction at the time, given the sheer number they filed? My position is the suits were largely a media tactic
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@JamesDowell2 @Kreiger_Nadir @brad_polumbo @Cjpearson @TheOmniLiberal 1. Much evidence has come to light since the cases were originally filed
2. Most were dismissed due to lack of standing or insufficient evidence at the time.
The earth turns. Time passes. New information arises. Go figure.
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@Kreiger_Nadir @TedBaxterKnows @brad_polumbo @Cjpearson @TheOmniLiberal Why won't he reply to this one, I wonder?
In the COURTS, where the BS is dropped because lying under oath means jail time, case after case was dismissed and laughed out, often by conservative judges. And a $700 million settlement Fox News had to pay.
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Every single court case has been dismissed and in most cases by Republican judges. Fox News had to pay a huge fine and fired Tucker Carlson for knowingly and admittedly lying to the American public about voting fraud and the Dominion Machines. There is evidence of right wing media admitting internally that they knew there was no wide scale fraud and they said there was anyway.
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@shai_machnes @aakashgupta Another good point. What I was wondering is a lot of these sports seem to have heavily confounding variables; wealth, social connections etc.
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@aakashgupta How is it correlated to wealth and a generally leisurely lifestyle, which translates to less stress and better healthcare?
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Tennis players live 9.7 years longer than sedentary people.
Not 9.7 months. 9.7 years. Nearly a decade.
The Copenhagen City Heart Study tracked 8,577 people for 25 years and ranked every sport by how much life it adds.
Badminton: 6.2 years. Soccer: 4.7. Cycling: 3.7. Swimming: 3.4. Jogging: 3.2.
Tennis almost triples jogging.
A separate study of 80,000 adults found racket sports cut all-cause mortality by 47% and cardiovascular death by 56%. Swimming hit 41%. Aerobics hit 36%.
The question is why racket sports destroy everything else.
Three mechanisms stack on top of each other.
First, the physical demands. A tennis rally requires explosive sprints, lateral cuts, and sustained aerobic output. You're training fast-twitch and slow-twitch muscle fibers simultaneously. Most cardio only trains one system.
Second, the cognitive load. You're reading spin, predicting angles, adjusting position, and executing motor patterns in real-time. Your brain is solving spatial puzzles at 80+ mph. That hand-eye coordination and strategic processing builds neural connections that protect against cognitive decline.
Third, and this is the one researchers keep coming back to: you literally cannot play alone. Every racket sport requires another person on the other side of the net. That forced social interaction triggers neurochemical benefits that solitary exercise cannot replicate. Strong social connection alone increases your chance of longevity by 50%.
Jogging is you and your thoughts. Tennis is you, a strategic opponent, and a community.
Dr. Daniel Amen is right. The data is overwhelming. If you want the single highest-ROI activity for a longer life, pick up a racket.
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@aakashgupta Does this study control for social connection? In other words, can one compare tennis to always running with a friend or group? This matters for the results because some people may not play tennis BECAUSE they have poor social connections, which independently hurts their lifespan
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@b_gimpl1234 @ManaByte You can pay a couple hundred & get on a 737 to travel 1/3 a bullet's speed, & the goal is to fly cheaply. The Concorde used to rival a slow bullet, just a little pricier. Now imagine only 3-4 crew, unlimited $$$, and a single-use ship the size of a high rise that's entirely fuel.
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NASA is not the only group observing space. It is not the only group tracking spacecraft. It is not the only group analyzing lunar samples. It is not the only group measuring the Earth. Acting like NASA is the sole source of information is the kind of mistake you only make when you have never looked outside your own bubble.
Every Apollo transmission was picked up by tracking stations in Spain, Australia, and the UK. None of those were run by NASA. Ham radio operators all over the world intercepted the signals independently. The Soviet Union tracked Apollo in real time. They had every reason to call it fake, and they didn’t.
Lunar samples have been studied by scientists in dozens of countries. They match lunar geology, solar wind exposure, and micrometeorite impacts. You cannot fake that in a lab. You cannot fake it with a story. You cannot fake it with “NASA said so.” These samples were examined by people who do not work for NASA and never have.
Orbital mechanics, satellite tracking, radio telemetry, and astronomical observations are done by universities, observatories, private companies, and amateurs worldwide. None of them rely on NASA’s word. They rely on physics and direct measurement.
Saying “I don’t believe anything NASA says” does not magically erase the thousands of independent sources that confirm the same reality. It just shows you have decided to ignore anything that contradicts your suspicion.
You do not get to dismiss evidence from the entire planet because one agency makes you uncomfortable. Reality does not shrink to fit your distrust.
HealthRanger@HealthRanger
A valid point. The challenge, though, is that all the "evidence" a pro-NASA person brings to the debate is provided almost entirely by NASA itself, which has never acted with honesty or good faith. I don't think the Earth is flat, but I don't believe a damn thing NASA says, either.
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J. D. أُعيد تغريده
this edit has 8 million likes on tiktok btw
Generic Dem Fan 🦅🇺🇸@RationalWins
We really don’t talk enough about just how good Obama’s final years in office were economically. Bro was handed the worst economic disaster since the Depression and left us with record low unemployment, record GDP growth, and $2 gas
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J. D. أُعيد تغريده
A stunning, high-quality video taken shortly after the Artemis 2 launch.
At the beginning of the video, we see the separation of the side solid rocket boosters, which fired for the first two minutes of the flight.
In the second part of the video, we see the jettisoning of the protective panels that protect the solar panels during their ascent through the dense layers of the atmosphere.
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J. D. أُعيد تغريده
We are going to see an accelerating tide of these admissions and conversions as the coming weeks and months pass. And the job of those of us who have opposed Trump for years is to resist saying "I told you so," or "you knew better," or "who needs you," but rather to say "thank you for seeing the light," and to ask people who previously supported Trump to help us stand up now for the impeachment and removal of that terrible man so that we rid ourselves of him sooner, rather than later. The survival of our nation as a constitutional republic depends in no small part on such grace.
Scott McConnell@ScottMcConnell9
So so ashamed and embarrassed to have voted three times for this person.
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J. D. أُعيد تغريده
Scott Aaronson review of the AI Doc:
"If I had to summarize Roher’s conclusion, it would be something like: go ahead, enjoy your life, have children if you want, but understand that now is a time of world-historical promise and peril much like the early nuclear age, so pay attention, and demand of your elected leaders that they ensure that AGI is developed in a pro-human direction, because tech leaders (even the relatively well-intentioned ones) are trapped in a race to the bottom and can’t get out on their own. Honestly, I’d have a pretty hard time improving on that message."
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J. D. أُعيد تغريده
Hidden on page 744 of the farm bill the House Agriculture Committee passed Thursday is a provision that would condemn millions of pigs to a lifetime in gestation crates.
Rebranded the 'Save Our Bacon Act,' it's a pork-industry play to wipe out every state law banning the sale of pork from crated pigs — laws the conservative Supreme Court upheld in 2023.
Over 85% of Democrats and Republicans oppose these crates. Voters have backed ballot measures to ban them in state after state.
The pork industry knows it can't win a straight vote on this. So it's burying the provision in an 800-page bill and hoping no one notices.
Contact your senators and representative today and tell them: oppose the farm bill unless the Save Our Bacon Act is stripped out. You can reach them at senate.gov and house.gov — it takes two minutes and it matters.
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@QiaochuYuan I don't think there's a chance that this low-quality a vide "gets" anyone except folks who are impaired or elderly -- a lot of the engagement are elderly people who don't quite understand this isn't real. But I'm very worried about Sora 3+ messing me up in a few years
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content that has been ruthlessly optimized to attack someone else’s brain is going to increasingly look like unwatchable gibberish to you but that doesn’t mean your content isn’t waiting in the wings. your hole will be made for you
Josh Brooks@F530Josh
Opened Facebook and Reels autoplayed. First reel had 57k likes and 12,000 comments. Comments were overwhelmingly impressed old people praising a dog. This is the reel. I’m not joking. Facebook is dead.
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@MichelleBr234 @Conservativeind @4_hastings @DavidShuster Actually nvm, I think you're right. Fair enough.
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This man was taken to the hospital after being knocked unconscious and losing all feeling for 40 minutes. ICE threw him to the floor for the crime of "exercising 1st amendment rights." The journalist was taking photos of ICE agents in a public area of a govt building. #ICE
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@MichelleBr234 @Conservativeind @4_hastings @DavidShuster It is, clear as day, an ICE agent aggressively pushing a woman directly into the man who is then critically injured. You know politics isn't a game where you lose "points" if you EVER consider the possibility an ICE agent did something wrong, right?
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@JamesDowell2 @Conservativeind @4_hastings @DavidShuster Might want to watch the whole video carefully.
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@Conservativeind @4_hastings @DavidShuster I didn't touch the window officer, the brick I threw did! I am innocent
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@kentoblanco @DanielBiss But my larger point here is, whether you or I personally support this instance isn't the important part. What matters is whether this is presidential overreach. Don't ask, "do I support this right now?" Ask, "am I comfortable with AOC having precedent to do this in 2028 or '32?"
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@kentoblanco @DanielBiss But the OP video is 30 masked ICE agents with long guns standing all together on the corner of one of the most affluent and low crime neighborhoods in Chicago. And an ICE boat w/more long guns going thru the same spot. That is not legit border patrol or anti crime work, to me
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The scenes of fully militarized CBP personnel parading through downtown and reportedly detaining people are outrageous. Everyone should see this action for what it is: the unwanted and unnecessary deployment of the military by the federal government on an American city. This dangerous escalation by the Trump Administration raises the potential for further unrest and violence. It must end.
Brónagh Tumulty@BronaghTumulty
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@kentoblanco @DanielBiss Say a legit journalist finds it's <20%, would your opinion on anything change? Because that's an important difference to me. If you think it's ok to deploy armed agents against the will of local residents, I assume you supported using the natl guard to enforce lockdowns in 2020?
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@JamesDowell2 @DanielBiss have a real journalist ask people. your guess is 20% mine is much higher
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