Keegan Larson

@emollick That book was an interesting read! Never thought so much about where and how we get the materials we do.

The modern economy rests on a single road in Spruce Pine, North Carolina. The road runs to the two mines that is the sole supplier of the quartz required to make the crucibles needed to refine silicon wafers. There are no alternative sources known. From Conway’s Material World:

@ergestx Agree wholeheartedly with this

What is with the quick cuts to commercial, @CBS?

If you’re like most investors, you’re asking the wrong questions. I was chatting with a group of advisors awhile back down in La Jolla and a question arose. I’ll paraphrase: "Meb, thanks for the talk.  We get a steady stream of salespeople and consultants in here hawking their various asset allocation models.  Frankly, it can be overwhelming. Some will send us a 50-page report, all to explain a strategic shift from 50% equities to 40%.  I want to do right by my clients, but I have a hard time reading all the various research pieces and models, let alone reconciling their differences.  Any thoughts?” The advisor followed up by emailing me this summary of all of the institutional asset allocation models by the Goldmans, Morgan Stanleys, and Deutsche Banks of the world.  And as you’ll see, they are HIGHLY different.  Morgan Stanley says only 25% in US stocks, while Silvercrest says 54%!  Brown Advisory says 10% in emerging markets and JPMorgan 0%. So what is an advisor to do? What’s the most effective asset allocation model? Turns out, that’s actually, that’s the wrong question.   The correct starting question is, “Do asset allocation differences even matter?” In the summary article that the advisor sent me, there’s a link to a data table showing the asset allocations of 40 of the nation’s leading wealth management groups. I teased out all the data from the table to examine three allocations: The allocation with the most amount in stocks (Deutsche Bank at 74%). The average of all 40. The allocation with the least amount in stocks (Atlantic Trust at 44%). Below is the equity curve for each.  Unless you have hawk-like vision, you’ll likely have a hard time distinguishing between the curves, and this is for the most different.  The other 40+ firms live somewhere in the middle!! Below are the returns for each allocation over the entire 1973-2015 period. Most aggressive (DB):  9.72% Average:  9.60% Least aggressive (AT):  9.19% There you have it – the difference between the most and least aggressive portfolios is a whopping 0.53% a year.  Now, how much do you think all of these institutions charge for their services?  How many millions and billions in consulting fees are wasted fretting over asset allocation models? Let’s try one more experiment… Overlay a simple 1% management fee on the most aggressive portfolio and look again at the returns.  Simply by paying this mild fee (that is lower than the average mutual fund, by the way) you have turned the highest returning allocation into the lowest returning allocation – rendering the entire asset allocation decision totally irrelevant. And if you allocate to the average money manager with an average fee (1%) that invests in the average mutual fund, well, you know the conclusion. So all those questions that stress you out… “Is it a good time for gold?” “What about the next Fed move – should I lighten my equity positions beforehand?” “Is the UK going to leave the EU, and what should that mean for my allocation to foreign investments?” Let them go. If you’re a professional money manager, go spend your time on value added activities like estate planning, insurance, tax harvesting, prospecting, general time with your clients or family, or even golf. If you’re a retail investor, go do anything that makes you happy. Either way, stop reading this long ass tweet and go live your life.

@NateSooter This 100% my life right now

Data teams: Excellent at measuring stuff, usually struggle with knowing what to measure Business: Excellent at knowing what to measure, usually struggle with measuring stuff Me, moving from Data to the Business: Maybe my superpower is the ability to do both

@RetailDetailUSA @gas_biz @notjaso79646447 This is 100% right

@gas_biz @notjaso79646447 It's a combo of risk profile, category, and volume-dependent discounts / pricing models. The smallest shops can see non-Tx fees double if they are still in old contracts where they see monthly account fees double for too many "low-dollar" transactions.

These signs drive me crazy! I don't ever see these at QT or Racetrac. If the gold standard retailers aren't doing it why are you?

Investing quote of the day:

Guest column: "When I signed with the Green Bay Packers in 1999 and spent over 11 years in the NFL, I had no idea that nearly 25 years later I would spend a large portion of my life fighting the NFL for the benefits included in my contract." nola.com/opinions/forme…

@ChunkyTheChamp @MrBurger2U Accountants that go bankrupt

@KeeganLarson @MrBurger2U as we know just because we have knowledge and can advise it doesn’t mean we follow our own advice. #TruthBeTold

“Whenever I’m about to do something, I think ‘Would an idiot do that?’ and if they would, I do not do that thing.” – Dwight Schrute And what is the best way to spot an idiot? Look for the person who is cruel.

@ChunkyTheChamp Crazy. For a one bedroom. Who can afford that price that only needs a one bedroom?

San Diego is the 7th most expensive city.. holy moly…@KeeganLarson

This beautiful girl was listed for euthanasia in a Fresno shelter. She is good with cats, livestock, all dogs and is friendly with all people. Saint is approximately 2 years old. She is easy to walk and good in her crate. #action_0=pet&animalID_0=19337695&petIndex_0=17" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">doggoneseattle.org/adoptable-dogs…

@ChunkyTheChamp @NBA @RealMikeWilbon @MrBurger2U Definitely more walking than there used to be

Is there no such thing as “traveling” in the @NBA? #WTH @RealMikeWilbon @KeeganLarson @MrBurger2U

@ChunkyTheChamp @Yankees @Athletics @astros @JuliusErving @E40 @BillGates @MrBurger2U Negative. Have not had the time just yet. Where do you find it?

@KeeganLarson @Yankees @Athletics @astros @JuliusErving @E40 @BillGates @MrBurger2U @keeganlarson did you check it out yet?

Finished watching the smart documentary “Reggie.” A documentary about the life that Reggie Jackson is still living. Whether you know who he was/is or not, there is much to learn and admire. @Yankees @Athletics @astros @JuliusErving @E40 @BillGates @KeeganLarson @MrBurger2U

It was an honor to meet and share a photo w/⁦@Jcchavez115⁩. The gentleman won 89 straight boxing matches and definitely is an all-time great! ⁦@WBCBoxing⁩ ⁦@NBCUTelemundo⁩ ⁦@FRANKTRIGG⁩ ⁦@SycuanCasino⁩ ⁦⁦@SunnyMabrey⁩

@ChunkyTheChamp @RepMaxwellFrost Facts!

@RepMaxwellFrost @KeeganLarson well played!

Republicans started this hearing with hyperbole and posturing, saying President Biden created the worst border crisis in American history. That’s not about oversight; it’s about stoking the fears of immigrants and asylum-seekers. So today, I asked Border Patrol for the truth.

@KyleKulinski @ChunkyTheChamp

AI created family guy as a 90s sitcom and holy shit

@DanWetzel As a fan, you just kind of expect it’s coming at some point

One thing about the Chargers, historically they never blow massive leads or suffer unspeakable meltdown losses, so no need to worry.

"To be a good manager, you want things to run smoothly. And insights are not ways of running smoothly. Insights are disorganizing and disruptive. And so, that’s a major reason that organizations, without even intending to, block the insights that come their way.”