LD OSINT

99 posts

LD OSINT

LD OSINT

@LDOSINT

North America انضم Eylül 2021
596 يتبع114 المتابعون
LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@MaxAbrahms I’m not too worried, in a handful of days Iran regime will be forced into shutting in their wells. We can handle oil in the 90’s we had higher prices in 2007 - 2008 and recently in 2022.
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Max Abrahms
Max Abrahms@MaxAbrahms·
The current situation presents loads of very tough choices and this is true for the leaders of America and Iran alike.
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Brian Babylon
Brian Babylon@you_star·
@Osint613 The entire world is obviously bleeding out because of the blockade.
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@MrPalviz @Osint613 The don’t have the storage capacity for oil, they will need to shut in their wells. Check mate
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Mr Palviz
Mr Palviz@MrPalviz·
@Osint613 Not really… iMo the turnaround of funds to Iran is 2-3mo+ , that is *after* delivery. Short term, they wont care. But remember , ceasefire expires, IRGC will start their fuckery again, so strait wont be safe, and all countries will feel pain. Blockade isnt sustainable
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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
Something most people miss: a total naval blockade on the Islamic Republic is a lot more devastating than war. Complete economy choke. If this continues, there will be ZERO paychecks for the IRGC.
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@neetintel @Osinttechnical In my personal opinion the cease fire was premature, in 13 days iran will be forced to start shutting in their wells because they will have nowhere to store their oil.
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NEET INTEL
NEET INTEL@neetintel·
@Osinttechnical Is the ceasefire necessarily over because the talks failed, or do both sides have enough incentive to wait out the oiginally stated two weeks?
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OSINTtechnical
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical·
President Trump is looking at resuming limited military strikes in Iran as a way to break a stalemate in peace talks -WSJ The US could also resume a full-fledged bombing campaign, though officials said that was less likely
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@anasalhajji In 13 days Iran will be forced to start shutting in wells, we can hang tight for a while and governments around the world can help foot the bill by lowering fuel taxes across the board for citizens.
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Anas Alhajji
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji·
أنا أريد أن أفهم، البحرية الأميركية ستحظر كل السفن التي تستخدم الممر الإيراني وتمنعها من عبور هرمز، بما في ذلك حاملات النفط الإيرانية، بينما ستسمح بالمرور لكل السفن التي تمر بالممر المعهود تاريخيا.. ولكن السفن لن تمر بالممر المعروف لسببين، الأول عدم وجود تأمين والثاني خوفا من انتقام إيراني.. وهذا يعني إغلاق تام لمضيق هرمز... إلا إذا استخدمت الناقلات الإيرانية الممر المعروف دوليا.. 😳 وهل ستستخدم إيران أنبوب النفط إلى ميناء جاسك بكامل طاقته الإنتاجية لتلافي مضيق هرمز؟
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@anasalhajji The Us will ban all ships from going to and from Iranian ports. All other non Iranian ports can still be used.
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@DarioCpx We need to deal with Iran now and not later. Governments, can help ease the cost by lowering fuel taxes for its citizens.
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JustDario 🏊‍♂️
JustDario 🏊‍♂️@DarioCpx·
Everything continues to develop exactly as expected 🎯 Kind reminder: this is the worst oil supply shock in history, and still, oil futures haven't even come close to the ATH recorded last time back in 2008
JustDario 🏊‍♂️ tweet media
JustDario 🏊‍♂️@DarioCpx

I believe that Iran is playing a game of chicken with the US in the oil market because that's Trump's real political cryptonite and true leverage they can exploit in the negotiations to end the war. ⚠️ The first time, Iran waited 48 hours before officially rejecting the US proposal. That sent $CL May price all the way up to almost ~116$ on by this Tuesday, while the various Tacos along the way were only effective to hold up stocks and hold down the June contract. 🚩As you can see in this chart I made, that was the exact point in time when oil futures started to factor in significant supply stress with the spread between CL1 and CL2 hitting ~16$ on Tuesday. Here is where things become interesting. As you can see in the chart, the June 26 WTI futures contract (that becomes CL2 after the 18 of March) only briefly traded above ~100$ a few times since the 9th of March. On the other side, the May contract surpassed the ~110$ 9th of March high one month later on the 2nd of April. It is no coincidence, in my opinion, that during the Easter weekend, it was when President Trump lost his temper when he posted the famous "open the f-ing Strait". Why? Because he was surely informed that not too far above the oil futures market was about to break loose, since those who were short that contract were starting to get squeezed hard. After a brief market relief from that post, the squeeze resumed till Monday, when, as reported by the FT, the US administration was pushing hard on Pakistan to open a direct negotiation channel with Iran. 🚩Here is when Iran seized the opportunity again, this time having more leverage in the negotiations, to the point that they got a public preliminary acceptance of their 10 conditions to end the war (the president even reposted FM Araqchi statement, the post is now deleted). Those conditions would have never been accepted if the GCC or Israel were actively involved in the negotiations, but Trump was in a rush to announce a ceasefire to trigger an oil futures price crash and avoid a sudden spike that could have crashed stocks. Again, I do not think it is a coincidence that on Monday, several large $QQQ short positions were placed in the market with 13th of April expiry. ⚠️If I am right and Iran continues its game of chicken with the US, which has already figured out how they are in no position to accept all the conditions Iran asked, as early as tomorrow, Iran is going to announce they will pull out from the ceasefire talks in Pakistan. This is going to be a MASSIVE problem for the oil futures market, which at that point will be about one week away from the May to June contract rollover. Why? Because not only will the May 26 contracts resume running higher when shorts are in the process of rolling their positions into June, but traders will be forced to price in the supply tightness in the June contract that can potentially even start trading in contango if the conflict escalates further and its end is then projected later in the future. Beware that so far I haven't factored in additional supply disruptions caused by more strikes on oil infrastructure in the Middle East and potentially the closure of the Bab-El-Mandeb strait. These additional elements can spark the perfect storm on the June 26 contract, with prices likely surpassing the recent ~120$ high by a big margin till the point the pain will be significant for Trump again (maybe because stocks will be crashing at that point causing a big political problem for him too) and he will be willing to accept Iran's conditions and pull out of the region. Feel free to bookmark this post

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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@neetintel No, your respected it why I follow you and not him. The fear porn industry is a multi billion dollar industry. It’s been around forever. Before NY prepper similar personalities were fear mongering about Planet X, earthquakes, and Fukushima radiation.
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Disclose.tv
Disclose.tv@disclosetv·
JUST IN - Skyhorse Publishing to start a new imprint in partnership with Tucker Carlson, called "Tucker Carlson Books," featuring an inaugural lineup that includes Russell Brand, Milo Yiannopoulos, and Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong — WSJ
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Aleph א
Aleph א@no_itsmyturn·
Israel 🇮🇱 and the US 🇺🇸 are preparing to renew strikes in Iran 🇮🇷, waiting on for the green light from POTUS Trump, reports Kan News. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is reportedly expected to visit Israel tomorrow.
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@ThePenguinBTC You’re missing something simple, US can destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure, all of it.
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Penguin X
Penguin X@ThePenguinBTC·
Trump İran'ın gemilerini durduracağını söyledi. Ama o gemilerin %90'ı Çin'e gidiyor. Trump bugün açıklama yaptı: "İran'a haraç ödeyen her gemiyi uluslararası sularda durduracağız." Herkes bunu İran'a karşı bir hamle olarak gördü. Ben bir soru sordum. O gemiler kime gidiyor? İran petrolünün %80-90'ını Çin'e satıyor. Durduracağı gemilerin neredeyse tamamı Çin'e giden gemiler. Trump İran diyor. Ama aslında Çin'in petrol hattını kesiyor. Kimse bunu konuşmuyor. Önce Islamabad'da ne olduğuna bakalım. Pakistan'ın arabuluculuğuyla ABD ve İran masaya oturdu. Vance ABD heyetine başkanlık etti. Saatlerce görüşüldü. Anlaşma olmadı. JD Vance "Son ve en iyi teklifimizi verdik" deyip masadan kalktı. Saatler sonra Trump iki açıklama yaptı. İkisi de çok ağır. Birincisi: "ABD Donanması Hürmüz Boğazı'na giren veya çıkan tüm gemileri abluka altına alacak. Tam bir abluka devreye sokuyoruz. İran'ın sevdiği insanlara petrol satıp sevmediklerine satmamasına izin vermeyeceğiz. Ya hep ya hiç olacak." İkincisi: "Çin gemilerini bize yollasın. Venezuela'ya yollasın. Bizde fazla petrol var. Daha ucuza bile satarız." Bu iki açıklamayı yan yana koyduğunuzda resim netleşiyor. Birincisiyle Çin'in petrol hattını kesiyor. İkincisiyle Çin'e "benden al" diyor. Peki Çin neden ABD'den alsın? Şu an Çin, İran'dan kendi parasıyla petrol alıyor. Yuan ile. Dolar yok, SWIFT yok, ABD'nin kontrolündeki hiçbir sisteme bağımlı değil. ABD'den alırsa ne olur? Dolar kullanmak zorunda kalır. ABD bankacılık sistemine girer, SWIFT üzerinden işlem yapar. ABD istediği zaman musluğu kapatabilir. Yaptırım koyabilir. Hesapları dondurabilir. Tıpkı İran'a yaptığı gibi. Tıpkı Rusya'ya yaptığı gibi. Trump petrol satmak istemiyor. Çin'i kendine bağımlı yapmak istiyor. Çin bunu biliyor. Mesele petrol değil. Mesele kontrol. Şimdi İran'ın Hürmüz'de ne kurduğuna bakalım. İran boğazda bir gişe sistemi kurdu. Her ülkeye 1'den 5'e kadar öncelik puanı veriyor. Birinci öncelik: Dost ülkeler. Geçiş kolaylaştırılıyor. Diğer ülkeler güvenlik taramasından geçiyor. İsrail veya ABD bağlantısı olmadığı doğrulanıyor. Sonra ücret ödeniyor. Ücret: Varil başına 1 dolar. Yuan veya kripto ile. Ödeme yapılınca İran Devrim Muhafızları geçiş kodu veriyor. Gemi boğaza yaklaştığında kodu radyodan iletiyor. Devriye botu karşılıyor. Boğazdan geçene kadar eşlik ediyor. Bu sistem Mart 2026'da İran Meclisi tarafından yasalaştırıldı. Ve Japonya bile bu sistemi kullandı. ABD'nin en yakın müttefiklerinden biri. İran'a yuan ile ödeme yaparak gemilerinin geçmesini sağladı. Şimdi kritik soruya gelelim. ABD gerçekten Çin gemisini durdurabilir mi? Bir Çin ticaret gemisini uluslararası sularda durdurmak ve aramak ne anlama gelir? Çin bunu ticaret ablukası olarak görür. Egemenlik ihlali olarak görür. Sessiz kalmaz. Çin'in muhtemel tepkileri: İran'a desteğini artırır. Hürmüz'deki yuan sistemini güçlendirir. Donanmasını bölgeye yaklaştırabilir, ABD tahvili satışını hızlandırabilir. Yani Çin gemisini durdurursanız sorunu çözmezsiniz. Büyütürsünüz. Peki durduramazsa? O zaman daha büyük bir sorun var. Trump "tüm gemileri durduracağız" dedi. Dünya izliyor. Körfez ülkeleri izliyor. Avrupa izliyor. Taiwan izliyor. Rusya izliyor. Hepsinin aklında tek bir soru var: Amerika dediğini yapabilir mi? Eğer Çin gemileri geçmeye devam ederse ve ABD durduramıyorsa cevap herkes için netleşir. "Yapamıyor." Ray Dalio'nun formülünü hatırlayın. "Süper güçler kritik ticaret yollarında kontrolü kaybettiğinde güven çöker. Müttefikler uzaklaşır. Para kaçar." Portekiz böyle bitti. Hollanda böyle bitti. İngiltere 1956'da Süveyş'te böyle bitti. İki senaryo var. İkisi de riskli. Birincisi: ABD Çin gemilerini durdurur. Abluka gerçek olur. Bu İran savaşından çok daha tehlikeli bir krize dönüşebilir. Çünkü karşınızda İran değil Çin var. İkincisi: ABD Çin gemilerine dokunamaz. Abluka kağıt üzerinde kalır. "Bu ülke dediğini yapamıyor" algısı oluşur. Müttefikler mesafe koyabilir. Dolar zayıflayabilir. İlk test çok yakında. Bir Çin petrol tankeri Hürmüz'e doğru yola çıktığında ABD Donanması ne yapacak? O an her şeyi belirleyecek. Bu benim kişisel analizim. Önümüzdeki birkaç gün çok yoğun geçecek, sizi her şeyden haberdar edeceğim.
Penguin X tweet mediaPenguin X tweet media
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@Vman1234V @no_itsmyturn There is no mass censorship, it’s called video evidence, have fun with your delusions. Your too scared to post the damage in Iran and gaza so you won’t.
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Vinny
Vinny@Vman1234V·
@LDOSINT @no_itsmyturn Actually more than a billion dollars. Mass censorship over there. They will never report the truth like ukraine. Same nonsense. 150 of 100 missiles intercepted kind of nonsense 🤣
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Vinny
Vinny@Vman1234V·
@no_itsmyturn Well then more destruction of israel then. You get what you ask for, more war. Good luck
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@PeterSweden7 That’s ok, I don’t need to go to Europe for any reason
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PeterSweden
PeterSweden@PeterSweden7·
IT HAS BEGUN From yesterday the new biometrics scanning is in effect at borders in Europe. Travellers from outside the EU will have to scan their face and fingerprints to enter.
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LD OSINT
LD OSINT@LDOSINT·
@silas_dawnforge @Real_Politik101 Europe needs to wake up fast, Trump is doing whatever he can do to prevent the multi polar world yet everyone gets in his way. As a Canadian it makes sense to have the closest ties to America our ally and friends who we are attached to by the hip.
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Silas Dawnforge
Silas Dawnforge@silas_dawnforge·
@LDOSINT @Real_Politik101 U.S. will fight you if you try to join EU after all of this. No chance that Europe is getting a foothold in North America after NATO collapses.
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LD OSINT أُعيد تغريده
Shlomo 🕎🇮🇱🇮🇳(🦁☀️)🇬🇧🇺🇦🗽 ⚖️7️⃣🕯️🔟✡️
You know… I have been watching this global timeline on X unravel for a while now, and I have got to tell you something that half of you already know but the other half are still learning about. Everybody is obsessed with the Jews. Again. It is 2026 and we are still running the same tired subroutine: “If only we could just solve the Jewish question, everything would fall into place.” Social media, campuses, parliaments, street marches, it is all “Zionist this, AIPAC that, dual loyalty, global cabal.” Same song, different playlist. And I am here to tell you… that is not the variable that is breaking the system. That is the distraction variable. See, chaos theory is not just about butterflies and hurricanes. It is about how complex systems, like civilisations, will always find the path of least resistance to explain their own collapse. And right now the West has found the easiest, laziest, most emotionally satisfying scapegoat in human history: a people who make up 0.2 percent of the global population and somehow get blamed for every single failure of late-stage modernity. But let us run the actual numbers. Let us look at the real attractors pulling us toward the cliff. One: The theology of Islam. Not the guy down the street who just wants to sell you falafel. I am talking about the scriptural, doctrinal, supremacist strain that has never accepted the Enlightenment, never accepted secular law, never accepted that the infidel has a right to exist as an equal. It is not a race. It is not an ethnicity. It is an ideology that says the world is divided into Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb, the House of Peace and the House of War, and the second one is everyone else. That is not “Islamophobia.” That is reading the source code. Two: Palestinism. Not the legitimate desire of any people to have self-determination. I am talking about the death-cult ideology that turned a territorial dispute into a sacrament of martyrdom. A movement that celebrates October 7th livestreams, that teaches toddlers to chant “from the river to the sea,” that has produced more suicide bombers and glorified throat-cutters per capita than any cause in modern history. It is not nationalism. It is a suicide pact wearing a keffiyeh, and the West keeps importing its most radical believers while pretending it is just “criticism of Israel.” Three: The radical woke left - the critical social justice zombies - that have so infiltrated the deep state, academia, and media they are appearing to become the new normal. The ones that turned biology into bigotry, turned merit into “whiteness,” and turned every institution, universities, corporations, media, government, into an indoctrination mill. It is the same intellectual virus that says the nuclear family is oppressive, that borders are racist, that the only thing standing between utopia and now is punching up at the wrong skin colour or the wrong gender or… conveniently… the wrong ethnicity. And when that project inevitably fails, when crime spikes, when test scores collapse, when birth rates crater, who do they blame? The Jews. Again. Every single time. You see the sleight of hand? The real problems, mass migration without assimilation, ideological capture of the academy, a religious worldview that rejects the very idea of a pluralistic West, those are too scary to face head-on. So the system does what any failing complex system does: it finds the smallest, most visible, most historically convenient target and screams “THERE! That is why it is all falling apart!” But here is the part they do not want you to notice. Jews did not open the borders. Jews did not invent critical race theory. Jews did not fly planes into buildings on 9/11. Jews did not teach British schoolgirls that grooming gangs were just “cultural misunderstanding.” Jews are not the ones demanding you affirm 72 genders while they throw homosexuals off rooftops in Gaza. The Jews are the canary. They always have been. When a civilisation starts hunting the canary, it is not because the canary caused the poison gas, it is because the gas is already in the coal mine and people would rather kill the bird than fix the leak. So yeah… life, uh… finds a way. It finds a way to distract you with the oldest hatred in the book while the actual predators walk right through the gates you left wide open. The question is not whether the Jews are too powerful. The question is why so many of you are so desperate to believe they are, because admitting the real dangers would mean admitting you have been lied to by the people you trusted, and that the West is dying from self-inflicted wounds wearing keffiyehs, pronoun pins, and academic robes. Wake up. Or do not. The system does not care. It is already choosing the next attractor. And it is not the Jews.
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