Lingfeng Shen

Can LLMs automate frontier LLM research, like pre-training and post-training? In our new paper, LLMs found post-training methods that beat GRPO (69.4% vs 48.0%), and pre-training recipes faster than nanoGPT (19.7 minutes vs 35.9 minutes). 1/

María Corina Machado is a genius. She understood something the Nobel Committee never will. She understands power, psychology, and how the world actually works, not how moral bureaucrats pretend it works. By openly praising Donald Trump and symbolically giving him the Peace Prize, she demonstrated real intelligence. Not ideology. Not moral vanity. Intelligence. The members of the Nobel Committee, on the other hand, are trapped in a childish worldview - good versus evil, heroes versus villains, black versus white. That is not wisdom. That is simplification for people who cannot handle reality. History does not move forward because of moral purity. It moves forward through paradox, uncomfortable figures, and people willing to act beyond ego and moral theater. If the Nobel Committee had any depth or humility, they would have awarded the prize to Trump themselves - not because he is “good,” but because the world is not a fairy tale. That single decision would have shifted global dynamics more than a thousand empty speeches about peace ever could. But they couldn’t do it. Too much ego. Too little understanding. María Corina Machado saw it clearly. The Nobel Committee did not.

Peter Thiel today: “Boomers are strangely uncurious about how the world is not really working for their kids. It’s always hard to know how much bad faith there is or how bad the actors are. I think it’s odd that people thought it was odd that I was complaining about student debt in 2010, when even then the growth in student debt was an exponential process. The national student debt was $300 billion in 2000, and it’s now more than $2 trillion. At some point, that breaks… If all you can say is that Mamdani is a jihadist, communist, ridiculous young person, what that sounds like to me is that you still don’t have any idea what to do about housing or student debt. If that’s the best you can do, you are going to keep losing.”

How to start a business on @Polymarket 101 The origin of the new garage-band market-maker 🧵

How can we boost LLM agents’ generalizability to OOD tasks and environments? Check out CodeGym, our new project for synthesizing environments for LLM agent RL training. CodeGym is a synthetic environment generation framework for reinforcement learning on multi-turn tool-use tasks. It automatically converts static coding problems into interactive and verifiable RL training environments. Training in CodeGym leads to strong OOD generalization — for example, a Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct model achieved an 8.7-point absolute accuracy gain on τ-Bench! We’ve just released the paper, synthesis pipeline, and dataset: 📄 Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2509.17325 💻 Project: github.com/StigLidu/CodeG… 📊 Dataset: huggingface.co/datasets/Vanis… 📷 More details in the thread👇

@LeotheHorseman @EricTrump 😂😂😂😂

Congrats @EricTrump

Markets on everything. We’re proud to announce that $ICE, the owner of @NYSE and the largest exchange company in the world, is making a strategic investment of $2 billion into Polymarket, valuing us at $9 billion post-money. Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. But in addition to that, it’s a monumental step forward for DeFi. ICE is the one remaining founder-led exchange company, and Jeff is all-in on utilizing his assets, including NYSE, to usher in a new financial era of tokenization. We’re humbled to be working together on this endeavor. ICE will also begin distributing Polymarket data to thousands of financial institutions around the world. There is so much to build when you combine the force of ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer + cultural savvy and distribution. The past two years have been surreal. Going from a write off to creating a category, watching our vision become a reality. The Polymarket origin story is funny because it's a rare case of the dream being identical to how things played out. If I learned one thing, it’s that bold ideas are everywhere, hidden in plain sight. It just takes someone crazy enough to spend their life willing it into existence. That’s entrepreneurship: willing things into existence. I remember reading Robin Hanson’s literature on prediction markets and thinking - man, this is too good of an idea to just exist in whitepapers. There were a million reasons why it shouldn’t work, countless arguments of why not to do it, and the odds were against us, but we had to try. At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it. But I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever, and Polymarket could play a critical role in that. After all, nothing is more valuable than the truth. It’s still a work in progress, but we’re honored to have made the impact we have thus far. I’d also like to give a special thank you to all of our users, builders, and community members who have been with us since 2020. Your support will not be forgotten 🔮 Last but not least, I am deeply grateful for all of the support and hard work of my brilliant team. I’m getting to live my wildest dreams, seemingly against all odds, and I don’t take it for granted. The best is yet to come… 🇺🇸 Que Sera Sera

@ZeeContrarian1 Hi, Zee. How about this structure for ZIM? Exp 10/17: sell 12 put/buy 14 call/sell 3x 20 call

$ZIM Buyout Math (I have never seen something like this) •Shares outstanding: 120M •Current share price: $13.6 •Buyout offer: $22/share •Total cost of buyout: 22 × 120M = $2.6B Cash & Assets •Cash per share: $24 •Total cash: 24 × 120M = $2.88B •Additional assets: –$5B (net), with ~$1B liquidatable without materially harming operations. Structure (PE-Style Arbitrage Play) 1.Loan: Ask a bank / PE lender for $2.64B bridge financing (1 month maturity). 2.Buyout: Acquire all shares at $22/share = $2.64B. 3.Post-close balance sheet: •Cash on hand = $2.88B. •Debt from buyout = $2.64B. •Immediate net cash = $240M surplus + control of $ZIM ’s operations and liquidatable $1B in assets. 4.Repayment: Use ZIM’s cash ($2.64B) to immediately repay the loan. 5.Leftover: ~$240M free cash remains in the newco, plus $1B in liquid assets and the full operating business. A buyout or management-led partial buyout appears imminent. Unfortunately, all funds I spoke with don’t have visibility on the exact timeline. Management probably wants to make shareholders puke their stock before they come in with the buyout offer. And this valuation is so obvious you don’t even need an Asian quant on your team to do the math.

Intelligence is not the ability to remember the past. 
Intelligence is not the ability to react to the present. 
The best definition of intelligence is the ability to predict the future!

@LeotheHorseman 这也能募到10亿刀，只能说pm和投资人都是神人了

总算把这个老哥的 investment thesis 看完了，不能说毫无收获，但确实是一边看一边笑。 他的160页的观点可以用以下几句话来概括： （1）AI 的发展进程是可以无限线性外推的，电力、台积电产能、算法极限都不会有硬顶。然后做了很多个线性回归，最后来一句 trust me bro。 （2）中国现在很菜，但他们有牛逼黑客，会疯狂窃取我们大模型的权重。 （3）E/acc 都是一帮右倾机会主义，只想给自己的公司圈钱。AGI 必须提高站位到曼哈顿计划，要以战时管制的态度去训练模型，其他的 startup 都只算是军转民。 这种兼具无限乐观主义和 MAGA 气质，再加上中国威胁论的宣讲，成功的把一个 Long 半导体 ETF + Short 落后产能老股的对冲基金包装成了一个支持美国三线建设的产业投资引导基金，也难怪他能募到这么多钱了。 此处的“Situational awareness”没有让我完全明白现在 AI 行业身处哪里，倒是让我理解了美国核心圈的部分倾向，怎么不算一种 awareness 呢。

@archimedesspx indeed, I think vix has hit the floor. It would be extremely difficult for vol control fund to suppress vix to below 15 like last year.

@Lingfeng_nlp look at 2/19 Volatility

燃烧游戏币是一个过程，3个sigma 完美的对齐~

Rule #1 Never trust the opinion of anyone who is involved in politics. This guy spent the last year licking the heels of Trump and pushing his agenda, only for him to totally 180 on everything because he didn’t get favored in that bill. What a beautiful world we live in.

1. Lehman. Wells Fargo prop lost hundreds of millions of dollars on converts, bond basis and levered loans. Head of the desk went to the board and asked for $4 billion in balance sheet to buy everything in sight, got it, because Wells was in good shape. Better lucky than good.

Trump says the Fed chair is a “major loser,” but the bigger loser from his fracas with the Fed could be whomever Trump chooses to succeed Jay Powell next year By bashing the Fed to influence policy, Trump could create a “shadow of suspicion” over his own nominee

Finally Someone Looks at the ODTE IRON CONDORS.... In ODTE 3 minutes makes a big difference.. S&P 500 Index (SPX) iron condors executed on zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) contracts at 3:55 PM EST and 3:58 PM EST, respectively. The evaluation period spans January 2013 through early 2025, encompassing over 3,100 real trade records extracted from structured backtest logs. Each strategy sells one same-day expiring iron condor near the close of trading using a standardized position size and fixed strike width. Both strategies involve selling 45-lot SPX iron condors with 5-point wings on each side, collecting a premium in exchange for accepting defined downside and upside risk. The only difference between the two is entry timing: one initiates at 3:55 PM EST, and the other at 3:58 PM EST—just two minutes before market close. Trades are held until expiration at 4:00 PM or exited early if a stop-loss threshold equal to 130% of the premium collected is breached. All simulations assume an initial capital of $30,000, consistent with the approximate margin required to hold a 45-lot iron condor with a 5-point spread. Key metrics include median terminal equity, maximum drawdown, and probability of account ruin. Both are positively skewed, characterized by a high concentration of small-to-moderate gains and a long left tail of occasional large losses. The 3:58 PM entry strategy (orange) shows a noticeably tighter range of outcomes, with most trades generating between $500 and $3,000 in profit. In contrast, the 3:55 PM entry (blue) displays a broader dispersion in both directions, with slightly more frequent and deeper losses

@Sinda1118 Michael Pettis?原来打开过那本Trade Wars Are Class Wars，但是还是太年轻，没有啥认知，没读懂hh

There is no such thing as alpha. Most hedge fund managers were simply in the right place at the right time, found a temporary, repetitive pattern, and rode it all the way up—mistaking it for skill or intelligence. For the lucky ones, the pattern lasted a few more years than for others—but luck always runs out. This is the truth. This is why insider trading exists and why no one consistently beats the index—because alpha doesn’t exist. It’s just luck. The only real alpha is knowing when your luck has run out and finding a new pattern to exploit. That requires having strong opinions—but holding them loosely.