Nicolas Colin

Never enough

BREAKING: New US intelligence reports suggest that Iran may "increase its regional sway" as a result of the Iran War through their control of the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters. Details include: 1. Intelligence suggests that Iran is "unlikely" to open the Strait of Hormuz "any time soon" ​2. Intelligence suggests that Iran's control over Hormuz "provides the only real leverage" it has over the US 3. As a result, Iran may actually end up gaining regional influence from the Iran War, US intelligence suggests 4. US officials note that Trump also has said that other countries "have far more at stake in preventing this ​outcome" than the US The Strait of Hormuz is quickly becoming the focus of this war.

Iran will outlast its current leadership because it was designed to. The question—no longer theoretical—is whether the United States will reliably outlast its own, writes Stephen Holmes of @nyulaw. bit.ly/4v6AiMX

My latest: Trump’s War in Iran Is Different from Putin’s War in Ukraine open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcf…

The gap between China’s current consumption levels and global norms implies trillions of dollars in unrealized demand, notes @KeyuJin. The 15th Five-Year Plan represents the Chinese government’s most concerted effort yet to narrow this gap. bit.ly/4m4yfVu

It’s like he has a crystal ball. If the ground invasion happens which he predicted from the start, then it’s all over but for the catastrophe.

Bond yields are surging... right when we can’t afford it. After the world printed record amounts of money during the lockdowns, we saw a historic surge in yields. Now we have entered the next inflationary crisis. But this time, there is no real ammo left to fight it. With debt-to-GDP levels at ~100%, raising interest rates further would directly threaten the solvency of governments... which leaves financial repression as the only viable path. Keeping interest rates below inflation and thereby inflating the debt away to a more manageable level. This is exactly how the US reduced its WWII debt, which was at similar debt-to-GDP levels. Sustained inflation, especially during the 70s, pushed debt-to-GDP from ~120% down to ~30%, which then allowed Volcker to raise rates to ~20% and finally kill inflation. First you inflate the debt away, then you fight inflation... We are at the inflation stage.... position accordingly.

First Russian, now Chinese de facto targeting support for Iran. The Escalation Trap is deepening for US and to Iran’s growing advantage washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Japan bond yields are soaring. You know what's coming next.

About half of all data centers slated to open in the U.S. in 2026 will face delays or outright cancellations. The delays are due to a key bottleneck: electrical components manufactured overseas. Batteries, electrical transformers, and circuit breakers all make up less than 10% of the cost to construct a data center – but it’s impossible to build new data centers without them. futurism.com/science-energy…

AI’s incredible demand is creating a system wide squeeze. • Memory • GPUs • CPUs • PCBs • Helium This isn’t one shortage.

Contrary to popular belief, the energy transition will not eliminate geopolitical risk but merely redistribute it, write Dianne Araral and @LKYSch’s Eduardo Araral. bit.ly/4scRY74

(Anthropic employee): Oh, you think you can buy this SF house, huh? 12 million. (OpenAI employee): Amateur…I offer 15 million. (Anthropic employee): 20 million! (OpenAI employee): Hardball, eh? 40 million! (Boomer couple): Our hard work and perseverance are paying off!

Read this important piece by @nfergus : Niall Ferguson: How Great Powers Lose Wars They’re Winning thefp.com/p/niall-fergus…

Over the past year the US economy has added 680,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs and lost 420,000 jobs in all other industries.

Once unemployment joins the party, it's lights out.

Europe has continued to invest in itself. This is almost strictly a US-only problem. Spain built the 2nd largest HSR network in the world in record time. New metro systems continue to be built across the continent. Highways have been built across the new member states. Mega works like the Eurotunnel, Gotthard base tunnel, Øresund Bridge, Viaduc de Millau, have been delivered. New airport like Munich’s, Berlin’s and soon Warsaw’s are being built. Europe has been developed for longer, but its public works are impressive, well maintained, and updated to meet growth.

This is a US only problem. Europe has continued to invest in itself. Spain built a the 2nd largest HSR network in the world in record time. New metro systems continue to be built across the continent. Highways have been built across the new member states. Mega works like the Eurotunnel, Gotthard base tunnel, Øresund Bridge, Viaduc de Millau, have been delivered. New airport like Munich’s and soon Warsaw’s are being built. Europe has been developed for longer, but its public works are impressive, well maintained, and updated to meet growth.

@levelsio The solo founder with a $1B company will attract so much competition from people who build great teams. How will he fend them all off all by himself?

China was almost the only country that was smart about this