Predictability of Weather and Climate

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Predictability of Weather and Climate

Predictability of Weather and Climate

@OxPredict

Research group @OxfordAOPP & @OxfordPhysics of Tim Palmer/Antje Weisheimer. Predictability, uncertainty, reduced precision for weather&climate forecasting🌍⛈️🌪️🌊

University of Oxford انضم Mayıs 2019
301 يتبع253 المتابعون
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Predictability of Weather and Climate
Predictability of Weather and Climate@OxPredict·
Tim Palmer explains why we don't need more climate models but a massive international Earth simulator on an #exascale supercomputer. Regarding the climate emergency, $1.1bn is well invested to inform us precisely about the climate change we are facing. nytimes.com/2019/06/12/opi…
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Predictability of Weather and Climate
Predictability of Weather and Climate@OxPredict·
Forecasting heat and feels-like temperatures with @ECMWF|s ensemble prediction system - applied to sport events! How can we bridge the gap between tons of forecast data and what users actually need to know? Communication of forecast data is never easy, maybe 👇this is a way?
Pascal EDOUARD@PascalEdouard42

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨 "Forecasting feels-like #temperatures as a strategy to reduce #heat #illnesses during #sport events" 📄@BJSM_BMJ Great collaboration @milankloewer @K_Hollander_ @ephysiol @FPappenberger A Niess Y Pitsiladis #ClimateChange #Health ▶️bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/…

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Predictability of Weather and Climate
Predictability of Weather and Climate@OxPredict·
We now have a global circulation model developed @OxfordAOPP! Not to replace existing forecast models, but as a computational playground to develop and test new ideas! Looking good already 🥳
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer

Since I started research on #weather and #climate, I always wanted to write a global atmospheric circulation model from scratch. Many years later, here we are, proudly presenting SpeedyWeather.jl github.com/milankl/Speedy… written in #JuliaLang and soon in 16/32-bits, on #GPU|s etc

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Predictability of Weather and Climate أُعيد تغريده
Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
📽️aaaand action! How do you cheat on chessboards using #fluiddynamics? No, what you see is the (probably) first fluid simulation entirely computed in #16bits! Can you spot the difference to 64 bits? No? There's only one: 16 bits is computed ~4x faster saving time⏰ and energy🔋
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Predictability of Weather and Climate أُعيد تغريده
Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
4 years, 9 papers (jeez 🤫), 50+ talks, 8 posters, ~5000 github contributions, 6 radio/news interviews, some 4,000km of 🚲commute, uncountable friends and colleagues, too many pints of cider, 35 housemates and 200L of olive oil later, Dr Milan has finally defended his thesis⬇️
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Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
Hello #BigData world! Our #newpaper is the editor's pick in the current issue of Nature Computational Science @NatComputSci 🥳 Read it, it's #openaccess. How to make #BigData small again? We found a way, at least for climate data!
Nature Computational Science@NatComputSci

Compressing atmospheric data is crucial to improve data storage and sharing. @milankloewer and colleagues (@ECMWF and @CopernicusECMWF) propose a method for efficient compression that preserves most of the meaningful, real information from the data. go.nature.com/3xdGKVa

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Predictability of Weather and Climate
Predictability of Weather and Climate@OxPredict·
Can a #weatherforecast be used to minimize the risk of heat-illnesses in sport? Short answer: yes, long answer ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Paris Olympics Heat Forecast@HeatForecast

More heat☀️ = more heat-illnesses in sport 🏃🥵? But how high is the risk given an outdoor temperature🌡️+sunshine☀️+humidity💦+wind💨? Read more in our NEW #openaccess paper: doi.org/10.1111/sms.14… Summary thread that lead to the @HeatForecast twitter bot 1/n 🧵

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Predictability of Weather and Climate أُعيد تغريده
Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
Going online: We've built a @HeatForecast for the #Olympics from @ECMWF's data. How hot will it feel? How does wind💨, sunshine☀️ and humidity💦 affect the feels-like temperature in Japan? TL;DR: It's hot, stay hydrated! Follow this account to receive daily updates ⬇️
Paris Olympics Heat Forecast@HeatForecast

@HeatForecast going online: Tokyo's heat forecast for the next 10 days. Tue-Fri will feel like 34-35˚C due to high humidity, sunshine and little wind. Windier from Sat evening will the decrease the feels-like temperature by a few ˚C. No rain, few clouds. Data from @ECMWF

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Predictability of Weather and Climate أُعيد تغريده
Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
Our information-preserving compression is in review for @NatComputSci! What's real information in #climate data?🌍↔️💿Why do large archives store mostly random bits, and how to separate the false from the real information. Preprint doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.… summary 🧵here⬇️ 1/n
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Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
Attending #vEGU21 this year? You've just saved many million kg of carbon by not flying to Vienna 🥳EGU would have emitted 25,000,000 kgCO2 by the end of next week: 26kg every second due to attendees flying in long-haul. The carbon clock is ticking... egu21.eu/about/green_eg…
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Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
16 bit not enough? I doubt it! After 3yrs of emulation, we finally run simulations on real 16-bit hardware at 3.5x the speed! Everyting 👇in Float16 & #JuliaLang and run on Isambard's A64FX - the same @Arm processors that power the fastest supercomputer #Fugaku 🗻!
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Predictability of Weather and Climate
Predictability of Weather and Climate@OxPredict·
We've been working on stochastic rounding, which is definitely on our wish list for next generation computing! Finally stochasticity baked deeply into weather and climate models! 🌍
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer

Just presented at #SIAMCSE21 on Stochastic Rounding for Weather and Climate Models🌍As the conference is not free💰, here a thread-summary. TL;DR Stochastic rounding reduces the overall error by introducing additional noise. Counterintuitive? Well, no, read on ... 1/n

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Gianpaolo Balsamo
Gianpaolo Balsamo@gpbalsamo·
@ECMWF @s_e_hatfield Awesome talk from @s_e_hatfield with results from collaborative work with @OxPredict @PDueben. Single precision computations once operational in @ECMWF #IFS47r2 will realise impressive savings that can be invested in higher vertical resolution of the ensemble forecasting system!
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Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
Fast climate models in 16-bit arithmetic? On a #GPU? Doesn't work? Yes it can! New paper on challenges for #16bit floats (or posits!), how to use mixed-precision, rescaling equations &reduced-precision communication agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20… Everything in #JuliaLang & open-source!
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Philip Stier
Philip Stier@PhilipStier·
We are looking for a post-doctoral researcher to work in our dynamic (and fun) @ClimateProc group on observational constraints on aerosol-cloud cloud interactions in models across scales as part of the @FORCeS_H2020 project. Interested? (via email) bit.ly/32yPios
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Milan Klöwer
Milan Klöwer@milankloewer·
What is the travel carbon footprint of a big scientific conference like #EGU19? 16,273 scientists from 113 countries emitted 22,300 tCO2e. How to reduce it by more than 90%? Answer: 25% virtual participation and Europe arrives by train. 🖥️🚆 @EGU @flyingless #netzero
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Philip Stier
Philip Stier@PhilipStier·
Looking forward to the excellent programme of day 2 of our @OxfordAOPP retreat, kicking off with a talk by @OxfordAOPP‘s Tim Palmer!
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اكتشف

@ECMWF @JuliaLanguage @NatComputSci @Nature @HeatForecast @Arm @ClimateProc @FORCeS_H2020