Roger

I think it’s not wrong what you are saying; however I do think it discounts a few things too much. 1. Tesla is realizing they won’t go cyber fast enough, so they are launching a 2-3 models over the next 12 months. Cyber, YL and SUV something. This should add to their profit margins, utilization and volume. It should materially increase profits. 2. Software services. I feel confident there is a lot happening here. More sales of FSD monthly is a big one. I think there is more there to be honest. I’ve felt for a while that they are not playing the game here well and that’s just the cars. They are like Apple when they first launched iCloud, they need to figure this out. 3. Tesla Energy is growing at double digits. I expect within a few years that’s a quarter of the business. Best part there is some innovation happening by allowing private parties to buy the equipment and Tesla gets a royalties for charging stations too. New solar panels might be interesting too. 4. Tesla EV batteries, I’m expecting Tesla to save a lot on batteries over the next 12-18 months. CATL rolled out some amazing new tech, a new partner (can’t recall their name) also joined. Tech being contracted today is 12 months away from delivery or less. Batteries are likely to decline for their cars and the Tesla Semi. This will really impact their business profitability and margins materially. 5. Robots. The big spend is happening this year; next year they’ll have 5-10k bots a week being produced. That’s a lot of capital that doesn’t exist today that’ll be generated that’s not there today. 6. Costs to build their AI infrastructure will reduce next year as well. This is a not insignificant cost, AI 5 and Dojo will be important but not significant from a financial perspective. It’s really the spill effect. 7. I don’t think Elon has that much liability for past FSD. All kinds of arguments an be said about what’s been agreed by customers whether they have been harmed, whether they share in the risk by buying an unproven and untested product. Etc. My guess is they’ll pay out a few billions and that’ll be the end of that. Worst case scenario. Your thesis isn’t wrong but there is a lot going on and it’s not so simple.

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

@elonmusk I just realized the meaningful gap that’s easy to close. when people post events, there’s no way to add them in a convenient way to the calendar. What a great gap to backfill. I wish there was like a link that just automatically allowed me to connect my Calendar or download an ICS file or something along those lines

Has anyone tried and have an Opinion on Deepseek V4 Flash?

@d4m1n Oh I wasn’t blaming you. I knew it was there previously. Just thinking the generally that it’s silly. Sorry man; reading now sounds like I was leaning on you, which is entirely accidental.

@roger I just took this from the Anthropic blog and added 5.5 in.

GPT 5.5 benchmarks BUT w/o hiding the ones where they lose to Opus 4.7 lol also check vs Mythos marketing bastards got me again

@UseAllOverTools @ollama What hardware will run that? Will my 64GB Mac Studio run it?

@ollama ollama cloud for deepseek? why bother when you can run these giants locally already. table says it all.

🐳Ollama is working to have DeepSeek-V4-Pro and Flash available on Ollama's cloud.

@rameswar08 @ollama Did it work? They haven’t announced so I’m curious!

@ollama as I saw the official model release announcement from deepseek first thing, I did is ollama pull deepssek-v4-pro:cloud lol

@ollama Will Ollama support the extraordinarily large context window when they launch the model?

@deepseek_ai @grok could Deepseek V4 Flash run on a Dell GB10 with 128GB of Memory or better yet a Mac Studio with 64GB of Unified Memory?

DeepSeek-V4-Flash 🔹 Reasoning capabilities closely approach V4-Pro. 🔹 Performs on par with V4-Pro on simple Agent tasks. 🔹 Smaller parameter size, faster response times, and highly cost-effective API pricing. 3/n

🚀 DeepSeek-V4 Preview is officially live & open-sourced! Welcome to the era of cost-effective 1M context length. 🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Pro: 1.6T total / 49B active params. Performance rivaling the world's top closed-source models. 🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Flash: 284B total / 13B active params. Your fast, efficient, and economical choice. Try it now at chat.deepseek.com via Expert Mode / Instant Mode. API is updated & available today! 📄 Tech Report: huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/De… 🤗 Open Weights: huggingface.co/collections/de… 1/n

I wonder if a DGX can run the Flash model and perform adequately. The Active Parameters makes me think it’s possible. I’m far from an expert on this, so I could be way off.

@Teknium @AThinkingMind @trycua Posted already and then saw this. I’m stoked ;)

@AThinkingMind @trycua In progress 🔃🔃

We're open-sourcing Cua Driver - our new macOS driver that lets any agent (Claude Code, Codex, your own loop) drive any app in the background, with true multi-player and multi-cursor built-in. 1/8

@Teknium @trycua I was literally thinking the same thing. Should I restrain myself a couple days and let you do yah thing ;)

@trycua This looks like it could be useful for Hermes Agent!

@inventur_es @REIGNSBACH Miss that; it was literally the most fun drinking I’ve ever had. So many memories and cool interactions.

@REIGNSBACH We call them Drinkable streets. Very common in the UK

Do ppl in london just stand around in the middle of the road while drinking and chatting??? Genuinely asking here

@svpino How we develop will change but who develops will dramatically change; most struggle with AI and that’s going to the killer skill.

How many of you think that “software developer” will be a viable career in 3-5 years?

@dalethomas50 @NousResearch Without Hermes Agent I’m not sure, but with Hermes Agent there are tools and other optimizations. They are trying to turn the platform into the optimal leverage for the Hermes Agent. It’s an interesting model.

@NousResearch I did sign up for the $10 plan just to play with it. But is there any advantage of going through you vs. OpenRouter?

New subscription tiers are live on Nous Portal → Plus ($20) → Super ($100) → Ultra ($200) Bonus credits on signups, upgrades, and renewals: +$2 on Plus / +$10 on Super / +$20 on Ultra All tiers include access to: → 300+ models → Bundled tool usage portal.nousresearch.com/manage-subscri…

@ChrisLikesAI @NousResearch I was looking too! Thanks for asking and answering gang!

@NousResearch @NousResearch are the 300+ models listed anywhere? My Claude expires 4/25 :) Perfect timing.

@0xSero I wonder if it’ll run effectively on a 64GB Studio. Will be trying this weekend

New best local model for y'all 16GB-64GB rejoice, the chosen one has arrived. huggingface.co/Qwen/Qwen3.6-2…

@opinion_bits @_MaxBlade Ollama.com $20/mth. No skills required

@_MaxBlade People use opus4.7 because they can use it off the shelves and not k2.6 because it’s a nightmare for nontechnical people to set it up.

Everyone says Hermes / Openclaw is unusable without Opus 4.7 I just ran two Hermes agents head to head, one with k2.6 and one with opus 4.7, through three heavily agentic tasks with one prompt. OPUS DID NOT COMPLETE 😳 Kimi completed all tasks. It took 4x longer, but is 10x less expensive to run. This is SHOCKING.

@strzibnyj They are getting rid of communities?

X getting rid of communities is a friendly reminder to never build your main thing on someone else's platform.

Do what Klein did for Oil Sands and if there is an opportunity money will follow.