Second Order Tape

1/5 Oil just smashed $100+ amid Iran tensions… and Trump just dropped hints of a deal in 2–3 weeks. Everyone’s freaking out about the obvious: inflation spike. But at @SecondOrderTape we track what hits markets too late – the real second-order effects. Thread 👇 #SecondOrderTape #Macro #Oil #Stocks

@KobeissiLetter Is this bubble?

US household exposure to the stock market has never been higher: Equities now make up 25.63% of total US household net worth, the highest since data began in the 1940s. This surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of 19.56% and the 1968 high of 22.01%. The percentage has almost TRIPLED since the 2008 Financial Crisis low of 8.77%. This means a significant correction in stocks could trigger a sharp pullback in spending, particularly among higher-income households who drive a significant part of consumption. Consumer expenditures currently represent ~69% of US GDP, near an all-time high. The US economy has never been more dependent on stock market performance.

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@saylor Tesla?

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Looking solid today. Care for ”good news” very volstile asset.

$BATL breakout or dead-cat bounce?

Back to the stone-age. Huge reset for Iran.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth just dropped it: ‘Iran back to the stone-age.’ Markets heard: Oil → rocket fuel engaged Fed rate cuts → buried for months Defense budgets → exploding Inflation → sticky as hell Everyone sees the bombs. @SecondOrderTape sees what hits your portfolio 3-6 months later. The real second-order effects are just getting started. What’s YOUR biggest lag play here? Drop it 👇 #SecondOrderTape #Oil #Macro #Iran

@KpopFanofXinyu Yep, BATL has done some moves at bell before. Hold tight 🚀.

@SecondOrderTape There’s also a lot of entires above $6, if we can get back there be great. Fomo is kicking in. We’ll see what it does at th bell

@SecondOrderTape Recovered the golden line, good for now. 4.75 was last major support

@KpopFanofXinyu Sounds reasonable

@SecondOrderTape Last line is 4.82, moved up level. So I probably put stop loss around there