

$ORCL is becoming interesting. Watch for a fall to $170 - 178 and start accumulating. Other stocks I'm watching: $NOK, $STRL, $DDOG
Street Alpha | Macro & Equities
950 posts

@StAlphaResearch
Former buyside analyst. I tell stories in two languages to help you understand macros, geopolitics and equities.


$ORCL is becoming interesting. Watch for a fall to $170 - 178 and start accumulating. Other stocks I'm watching: $NOK, $STRL, $DDOG

In May, my model argued Brent was not at $150 because 4 shock absorbers were bridging the supply loss, and it put the critical inventory window at late June. The U.S.-Iran MOU was signed electronically on June 15, at the precise edge of that window. The thesis held. But the deal did not resolve the crisis so much as transform it. The market is no longer running an inventory depletion clock asking whether the buffer survives. It is running a credibility clock asking whether the reopening holds. The risk has shifted from physical shortage to political relapse, and the variables to watch have shifted with it: vessel transit counts at Hormuz, insurance and banking normalization, the Dated Brent premium, and the 60-day nuclear deadline that expires in mid-August. Brent has fallen from $126 to the low-$80s because the market believes the buffer will be refilled before it empties, not because the danger is gone. Count the ships. Watch the premium. Mark the August deadline. open.substack.com/pub/streetalph…





We're introducing GLM-5.2, our latest flagship model for long-horizon tasks. It marks a substantial leap in long-horizon task capability over its predecessor GLM-5.1 and, for the first time, delivers that capability on a solid 1M-token context. GLM-5.2's new capabilities include: Solid 1M Context: A solid 1M-token context that stably sustains long-horizon work Advanced Coding with Flexible Effort: Stronger coding capabilities with multiple thinking effort levels to balance performance and latency Improved Architecture: We propose IndexShare, which reuses the same indexer across every four sparse attention layers, reducing per-token FLOPs by 2.9× at a 1M context length. We also improve GLM-5.2’s MTP layer for speculative decoding, increasing the acceptance length by up to 20% Pure Open: An MIT open-source license — no regional limits, technical access without borders Supporting long-horizon tasks starts with making long context engineering-usable: the model must maintain quality across long, messy coding-agent trajectories, not just accept more tokens. A 1M context is easy to claim, but much harder to keep reliable under real engineering pressure. To this end, we substantially expanded 1M-context training for coding-agent scenarios, covering large-scale implementation, automated research, performance optimization, and complex debugging. The result is a long-context system that is not only wide in scope, but solid in execution: a practical substrate for sustained engineering work. This capability is reflected in GLM-5.2's performance on three long-horizon coding benchmarks. FrontierSWE measures whether an agent can complete open-ended technical projects at the scale of hours to tens of hours, spanning systems optimization, large-scale code construction, and applied ML research. On this benchmark, GLM-5.2 trails Opus 4.8 by only 1%, while edging out GPT-5.5 by 1% and Opus 4.7 by 11%. On PostTrainBench, where each agent is given an H100 GPU and evaluated by how much it can improve small models through post-training, GLM-5.2 outperforms both Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5, ranking second only to Opus 4.8. On SWE-Marathon, an ultra-long-horizon software engineering benchmark covering tasks such as building compilers, optimizing kernels, and developing production-grade services, GLM-5.2 still has room to grow, trailing Opus 4.8 by 13% while remaining second only to the Opus series. Across all three benchmarks, GLM-5.2 is the highest-ranked open-source model, showing that its 1M context has translated into practical long-horizon delivery capability.





Several large cargo vessels controlled by some of the world’s leading shipowners, including Grimaldi Group, Cosco and NYK, are finally exiting the Middle East Gulf, Lloyd's List Intelligence data shows







