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Stefan Pollinger
30 posts
Stefan Pollinger
@StefanPollinger
Assistant Professor, Sciences Po @ScPoEcon
انضم Nisan 2020
261 يتبع130 المتابعون
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Forthcoming at EJ: ‘Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease,’ by Stefan Pollinger doi.org/10.1093/ej/uea… @StefanPollinger @ScPoEcon @OUPEconomics @RoyalEconSoc #EconTwitter
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10/ @dorn_florian, @IlonaKickbusch, @devisridhar, @JVLazarus, @SJVanders, @FacundoPiguill1, @liyan_shi, @LukaszRachel, and many others too numerous to list here. A thousand thanks to all of you! #EconTwitter
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1/ How should we use social distancing and contact tracing in response to a rapidly spreading and deadly infectious disease? I am excited to announce that my paper on this topic is now forthcoming in the @EJ_RES: bit.ly/40y9O76. Here's a summary of the main findings:
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2. Key tradeoff is not health vs. wealth, but the intensity of control measures vs. the time they need to stay in place
3. The optimal solution of this tradeoff is characterized by a simple formula of observables. On the optimal path case numbers always go down.
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Optimal Case Detection and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress COVID-19 by @StefanPollinger
drive.google.com/file/d/17du6VI…
(Older summary: voxeu.org/article/suppre…)
Key results:
1. Cost of #NoCovid is an order of magnitude lower than cost of mitigation strategies.
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@A_Ferey @LMU_Muenchen @APeichl @Dominik__Sachs @pierrecboyer @jbmichau @DTaubinsky Congratulations Antoine! ;-)
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🎉Very thrilled to announce that I will join the public econ group @LMU_Muenchen (@APeichl @Dominik__Sachs among others) as an assistant professor next April!
🙏Deeply grateful to @pierrecboyer, @jbmichau, @DTaubinsky and #ESaez for their support on this 2020-2021 job market!
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Very good thread on the situation in France!
JohannesBorgen@jeuasommenulle
Last Friday, Macron floated the idea of a new general lockdown in France. Ouch. And because I’m fed up with reading so much garbage and contradictory stuff on Covid, I decided to have a hard look at the French data. A (long but important) thread.
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@AdamJKucharski Exactly! Economically, it is even worse than that. Every day you let infections grow increases the social distancing costs to get back to a level where contact tracing can control the disease. More info on how economics and epidemiology interact here: voxeu.org/article/suppre…
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COVID discussions often framed as choice between strong restrictions & lower infection level or light restrictions & higher level. But it's not that simple. European countries will need to get R down to 1 eventually – choice is whether to do so early or once hospitals full.
Adam Kucharski@adamjkucharski
I often see the misconception that control measures directly scale COVID case numbers (e.g. “hospitalisations are low so measures should be relaxed”). But in reality, measures scale *transmission* and transmission in turn influences cases. Why is this distinction important? 1/
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The situation in Belgium is so grim that one of the leading epidemiologists of the country is crying out for help on social media. If you live in a distressed area, please limit your social contacts as much as you can. Also, please use your contact tracing app. Courage!
Marius Gilbert - @mariusgilbert.bsky.social@mariusgilbert
Vous, qui avez 100, 1000, 10.000, 100.000 followers sur FB, Insta ou par ici. Vous qui voyez du monde tous les jours, sur le terrain, aidez-nous, aidez-vous ! Il est #minuitmoinsune votre influence peut sauver des vies, nos hôpitaux sont au bord du gouffre. #stopcorona
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Stefan Pollinger أُعيد تغريده
1/17 Check out @TSEinfo's great job market candidates this year! Brief post on each one in ~reverse alphabetical order... take a look and share!
tse-fr.eu/job-market-can…
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apps are only effective if most people use them! Tracing alone will not end the current wave. There are already too many cases, and we are already out of testing capacity. However, tracing could at least prevent the third wave. Suppressing the virus saves lives and the economy!
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The efficient use of digital contact tracing after the first lockdown would have prevented the current second wave.
In this article, I tried to explain why: voxeu.org/article/suppre…. If you live in France, please use the new contact tracing app: gouvernement.fr/info-coronavir…. These
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Stefan Pollinger أُعيد تغريده
Do you work in government and follow me? Maybe ask someone whether they are considering this idea:
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
and, if not, why not. It could help get a better outcome in this crisis, by laying it out more clearly that suppressing the virus won't 'cost' anything.
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