ToastTakes
34 posts
@SlothUniversity Who do you think will have the better season diggs or TMac? 🤔
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@SlothUniversity I’m rostering Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, & Jordan Love but I need bench space who should I drop?
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@SBR_bets Once the Steelers beat the breaks off the jets, come back to this.
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Milwaukee Brewers ML✅
🔥14-3 on Brewers ML Props🔥
Never a doubt as Brewers CRUSHED the Reds 9-1
Who tailed this FREE prop?❤️
Wiz Betz 🧙♀️@WizBetz
MLB Play of the Day⚾️⭐️ Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+100 HR | 1 unit) This is a long one, so strap in -Before getting into each pitcher, let’s just update some stats from Monday’s writeup. I’m now 13-3 on Brewers ML props since 2024, and the Brewers are 26-9 on the road vs the Reds since 2021. That’s the highest Win% among ANY team in baseball on the road (min 15 games) -Let’s start with Andrew Abbott, who you’ll see 10 write-ups on “Abbott under 2.5 ER” -No pitcher has benefited from an easy schedule more than Andrew Abbott. While it’s nice to see his K% and Whiff% improve, he’s yet to face many elite teams vs LHP. Here is the list of his opponents and their wRC+ rank vs LHP in 2025 30th: Colorado Rockies 28th: Baltimore Orioles 26th: Pittsburgh Pirates 23rd: Atlanta Braves 22nd: Cleveland Guardians 21st: Chicago White Sox 13th: St Louis Cardinals 2nd: Chicago Cubs -The one thing we know about Abbott is the worst ground ball pitcher in baseball, but doesn’t give up hard contact. His “hypothetical” kryptonite would be facing a team that succeeds off soft contact and has a low FB%, which means there would be plenty of line drives. -Oh shoot, I just described the Milwaukee Brewers -Milwaukee did this vs Jesus Luzardo last week, getting 12 hits and 12 runs on mostly soft contact. The Brewers’ lineup is littered with slap hitters with low power: Turang, Frelick, Durbin, Ortiz, and Cameron -Now on to the Brewers’ Pitching staff, which is employing an elite strategy that may shut out the Reds. Milwaukee is starting DL Hall this game, a lefty bullpen arm with a high K%. Hall should only go 2-4 innings before moving to righty “starter” Quinn Priester, who could go anywhere between 4-6 innings. -This strategy worked to perfection vs the Phillies as Hall pitched 3 no hit innings, then Priester pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 runs. The Brewers did not have to go to the bullpen once that game (excluding bringing in Priester) -The Reds’ offense has been terrible lately, ranking 24th in wRC+ the last 2 weeks and averaging 1.2 home runs per game. Milwaukee’s pitching shenanigans won’t help this offense get back on track -Lastly, Uribe, Koenig, Mears, and Megill should all be available for this game. Anytime all 4 bullpen arms are rested, I trust Milwaukee down the stretch #gamblingX #playerprops #prizepicks #mlb #mlbpicks #mlbprops #fanduel #sports
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Sharpe is NEEDED vs the 🌩️
Day’Ron Sharpe over 9.5 AR -130
Sharpe liiikely gets the start here now that Nic Claxton is suspended. Plus no Ben Simmons who can play a small 5. He hasn’t started since 2023 so it’s a little bit of unknown territory here.
BUT he’s been consistent when he sees at least 20 minutes of court time. Hes had 7, 11, 11, 17, 18 and 7 this season when playing that much.
He’ll be important for this nets team vs a big thunder squad and 10 is a number he can get easily.
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The Jokic Wagon is BACK 🃏
Nikola Jokic over 21.5 AR -125 FD
As his team gets back full healthy, Jokic AR is thriving. In his first game after post all star break, he had 26 AR vs a struggling Hornets.
This makes it two in a row now for him with 25 and 26 AR.
Now he faces Doncic, LeBron and a Lakers team who lack defense and size down low. Nurkic SMASHED this line for Charlotte after the ASB and Clingan probably would’ve too if he saw the proper court time.
Jokic had an insane 38 rebound and assist chances vs Charlotte and I’m expecting a similar number for him here. Combine that with a favorable matchup in the paint and his teammates back, he should thrive!
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@CFBKings @PFF_College How the bottom half of the list better then the top 🧐
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@__LordPenguin Talk to me @__LordPenguin what you think about 14.5 🤔
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My #5 NBA Bet bout to be sweatyyyyy 😅
Isaiah Hartenstein under 15.5 AR -130
Hartenstein now has to share rebounds and usage with Chet. His return makes the OKC lineup bigger and even leaves less minutes to Hart.
In his only game back, Hartenstein had just 8 AR. He’s also sharing some minutes with Jaylin Williams who’s just been an animal on the glass.
So now we have 3 great rebounders in rotation and more usage going to Chet. While J Will, Shai and Wiggins all get theirs’ too. Tough for Hartenstein to keep getting 16+ in any matchup.
This Pelicans matchup has been tougher than it was in the beginning of the season. Forwards/Centers have been underperforming since the return of Zion.
This line moved to 14.5 which I’d only go .5U on but definitely still like the under.
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My FOURTH Favorite NBA Bet 🏀
LaMelo Ball over 42.5 PRA -120 FD
Long story short, I think LaMelo does it all here.
He hasn’t been hitting this line but more importantly, he’ll be without Brandon Miller. Also still no Tre Mann. Nick Smith takes some of the usage, but we should see LaMelo’s usage sky rocket.
He’s had some tough matchups without him so far this season including a surprisingly tougher one vs his brother Lonzo who kinda locked him up last game, but now he’ll face Kyrie who he killed in their only matchup last year for 53 PRA.
He did eat vs the Wizards without Brandon Miller for 51 PRA and I think we see a similar story here.
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My FIFTH Favorite NBA Bet 🏀
Karl Towns over 15.5 AR -132 FD
I’m not really sure what FD is trying to pull here with such a weird line, but I’ll take the bait. Especially vs the Wolves.
KAT played the Wolves already in Minnesota and had 26 AR on insane 39 potentials. It helped that Hart didn’t play, but still.
KAT struggled a little bit in his last Detroit matchup vs Duren, but still had 15 AR. Game before that he had 22 vs Milwaukee.
Overall he’s averaging 19.3 in January and 17.2 on the year. We only need 16 here with extra motivation vs his old team that traded him!
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@fliff Explain to me how is he even supposed to hit 6.5? He only saw 6 batters even if he struck all of them out he couldn’t even HIT!!
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