@Bannedforself @TRex606 200nm past the blockade line after they set anchor.
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
109 posts
The(REAL)IntelFrog
@TheIntelFrogbu
Backup to @TheIntelFrog - AvGeek and OSINT enthusiast | Providing real-time updates on military aircraft movements and breaking events
BeeTwo, USA انضم Mayıs 2026
187 يتبع7.2K المتابعون
The tankers hit yesterday were in the anchorage for the port of Jask, in line with my analysis that the ships were stationary when they were struck.
Not only did they break through the blockade, they made it to an anchorage just east of the Strait of Hormuz, 150nm+ past the blockade line.
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
Today’s Sentinel-2 satellite pass revealed multiple oil tankers hit and burning off the Iranian port of Jask. Seen here, the Iranian tanker Sevda, hit by an American bomb, continues to burn fiercely at her stern.
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@TRex606 SEA STAR III was in the Malacca Strait on the 7th. SEVDA was last seen in the same area on the 11th. It's a 6 day sail to their current position from the Malacca Strait. The blockade went into effect on the 13th.
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@mdburnell All I've got to say is if we're going to enter Houthi levels of propaganda, we need to up our videography game.
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@TheIntelFrogbu Yep. That video was such a huge red flag. Needless destruction for no other reason than acting like something was being accomplished. Could have easily been boarded, seized, and either held or sailed out. Hell, seize it and use it as another bargaining chip.
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@IIIIlllIlIIlllI Depends on what your definition of 'victory' is.
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@TheIntelFrogbu any way the US can secure any type of "victory" in this war?
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@Quip_Pro_Quo_ It's real. 50+ vessels have been redirected so far. But it's not as bulletproof as they're letting on.
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@TheIntelFrogbu So you’re saying that the blockade is not entirely real?
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The biggest take away is the reduction in assistance disaster survivors will receive and reduction in the number of people who are eligible for that assistance.
Under current regulations, survivors can receive up to $44,800 for housing assistance and $44,800 for other needs assistance and is available to anyone with uninsured damage in a given disaster zone.
Under the new recommendation, disaster aid will only be available if your home has been destroyed and will be capped at 15% of the local jurisdictions assessed valuation of your home, up to $150,000 for a $1,000,000 home.
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu
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@TheMakerPatrick 12 is not many, considering 6 are dedicated to protecting the carriers. Of the other 6, 2 are probably in various stages of replenishment leaving only 4 available.
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@TheIntelFrogbu Sure, but that's better than going back to homebase. There are many DDGs in theater. I would suspect very few TLAMs on any DDGs that have recently reloaded
The real limitation is that DDGs are doing so many roles. Blockade enforcement is better done by Frigates, but we have none
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One limiting factor in any potential US Navy escort operation is the number and type of munitions expended during each run.
An Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer has 90-96 vertical launch cells. Typical loadouts are roughly 1/3 each air defense, land strike and self defense/anti submarine (adjusted based on mission).
These cells can not, yet, be reliably reloaded while at sea, so once the ship hits a critical level, they must disengage and return to port. Until Operation EPIC FURY, Naval Support Activity Bahrain was the prime Middle Eastern location for VLS cell restock. Now, ships will have to sail to Oman or Saudi Arabia in order to be restocked.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The sheer scale required to protect global trade is reaching a breaking point. Shipping expert Sal Mercogliano points out that the "intricate" effort to escort just two ships involved Navy reservists, Marines, and Apache helicopters. If it takes an entire carrier strike group to move two vessels, the project does nothing to solve the problem of 1,600 commercial ships being stranded in the Persian Gulf. @MercoglianoS
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@TheMakerPatrick Bahrain isn't a viable option for VLS reloading at this time. Neither are Oman or apparently Saudi Arabia as all are within Iranian attack capabilities. DDGs are having to go 3,500nm away to Diego Garcia to replenish.
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@TheIntelFrogbu You probably don't know all of the capabilities and locations to reload VLS, and that's a pretty good thing.
But just using Bahrain in this scenario, ships can go into the SAG full, reload in Bahrain, and then leave full. Two transits fully armed.
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Approximate locations of the 4 vessels disabled by CENTCOM since the initiation of the blockade.
U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM
The U.S. Naval blockade against Iran continues be to fully enforced. As of today, CENTCOM forces have redirected 58 commercial vessels and disabled 4 since April 13 to prevent the ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
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@Muggs00454738 Should be in CENTCOM any day now, if not already.
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@TheIntelFrogbu Does anyone know where the marine expeditionary force which left San Diego, CA, 2 months ago is now?
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It's all fun and games until the OCEAN TRADER shows up.
MT Anderson@MT_Anderson
🚨SOC Mothership at Diego Garcia🚨 Sentinel 2 from May 7 reveals a highly significant arrival at NSF Diego Garcia 🔸Likely spot of Spec Ops Command (SOC) mothership, MV Ocean Trader, safely anchored inside the atoll. 🔸USNS Pililaau & an Arleigh Burke also in the lagoon. My last definitive spot was way back in Nov 2025 off the coast of Puerto Rico. I had a potential sighting on Apr 13 2026 in the Med approaching the Suez Canal. This spot in the Indian Ocean strongly validates that earlier track. When the Ocean Trader slides into theatre—much like what we saw with previous posturing around Venezuela—more complex operations tend to follow. Does her arrival indicate SOCOM elements are actively gearing up for the next phase? @sentdefender
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While the final report of the FEMA review council does not recommend dissolving the agency, it does recommend some game changers in the space. In this article, I discuss 6 of their most impactful recommendations.
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu
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While some ships are penetrating the US blockade of Iran, they are being intercepted.
Tom Bike@tom_bike
Blockade runner HASNA 🇮🇷 spotted adrift 2 DAYS AGO 👇 near where her rudder was destroyed by US 🇺🇸 F/A-18 cannon fire at 24.290,58.617 60 nautical miles off Oman, after crew ignored repeated warnings. 109 nmi from blockade line. Tracked YESTERDAY anchored off Oman.
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@star_excelsior The water around the ship is completely still. The ship is moving at the same speed as the water around it. I don't know if you've ever been on the water or to a beach, but the wind is almost never calm.
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@TheIntelFrogbu Either the wind is really high there or the ships are moving.
The wakes aren’t that big but the direction the smoke is moving doesn’t lie.
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The video, shared by CENTCOM, shows that both tankers were either disabled or compliant with orders to stop at the time the shots were taken.
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
Footage of a US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet bombing the tanker Sevda as it attempted to run the US blockade on Iran. CENTCOM says that US forces struck and disabled a pair of tankers as they attempted to head for an Iranian port.
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@maxxxmoin Yeah, not sure at all aside from the fact that neither vessel was moving at the time they were struck. The SEA STAR III had no signs of life before or after the strike.
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@TheIntelFrogbu Maybe they didnt move to a desired path/along a desired path? Quite obvious they werent evading the blockade when attacked
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@justaguyactual1 Ensuring your paperwork is completed properly and accurately really speeds things up. Smaller jurisdictions tend to get things a little quicker because they don't have the expenses that a larger one does.
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@TheIntelFrogbu Yeah I’ve heard different experiences, ours was pretty smooth and received our reimbursements pretty quick even through the shutdowns. I know a few counties over they are still trying to get reimbursements from the same event we had.
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Ok...
This is going to take some digesting.
There are some VERY good ideas that have been necessary for a long time coming, but they're also recommending fundamental changes that will reduce both the number of folks eligible and the amount of federal assistance.
Poll 👇👇👇
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu
The FEMA Review Council has released its final report. It recommends reforming and bolstering the agency in a transformation. Several recommendations will require congressional action. I'll break it down more in depth tomorrow.
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@justaguyactual1 They are proposing speeding up the PA process, which would be welcome. I know some jurisdictions are 5+ years post event and are just beginning to receive FEMA reimbursements.
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@TheIntelFrogbu Very true….from my personal experience I’ve only been involved with 3 federally declared disaster. There wasn’t a total loss in any 3 of those disasters, so my actual experience on that is based of those. 2 of those were Public assistance for damaged county roads not individuals
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