“Log Scale” | Producer of T₿S — The Bitcoin Spot

Avoid falling for Russian propaganda on the war in Ukraine by following OSINT (open source intelligence) accounts.

@DavidDTawil There’s actually a number of videos of Saylor discussing this. He talks about the PE on the 18% “BTC yield” he’s generating per share annually, to be added to the NAV. The value to Wall St vol traders. The value to fixed income funds that can’t otherwise access BTC.

@DavidDTawil Saylor has explicitly addressed the mNAV issue. The video has been all over the MSTR Twitter space. It’s odd you’re having this discussion without having seen his argument.

@just_vievie_ @werkman He already diluted himself out of controlling interest. Intentionally. And it is required to join the S&P 500.

@werkman Ben, Saylor is keenly aware of the danger of diluting his controlling interest too far. At what point must he stop to avoid this? That moment in time will mark a huge turning point in my opinion.

I was too bearish on $MSTR, so we're going bigger. Trigger Warning: Long Scenario Alright, let's do an update to the scenario I ran earlier about $MSTR achieving 200,000 Bitcoin accumulation in 2024. However, lets assume if they were going for 200K they would certainly go for 210K which would bring them to 399,150. But that's not a clean number so instead let's just make it an even 400,000 by the end of 2024. So where do we stand? Well as of writing this, MSTR holds 331,200 #Bitcoin in their treasury. This means our target needs to be 68,800 additional Bitcoin by the end of 2024. So can we do it? Let's check it out. Here's what we know, MSTR has a $2.6B convertible bond offering with a $400M option so let's just assume they close with an even $3B (I'm going to ignore any fees for simplicity, minimal in the grand scheme here). I would expect they will have that $3B in hand by close of business today and will be back on the bid buying Bitcoin. Since we are currently trading around $94,000 I will assume that with this buying pressure they will end up moving Bitcoin up to around $95,000 (minimum) so I will give them an average purchase price of $95,000 (I'm assuming they're buying already today). So with this capital in hand, they should be able to buy ~31,500 Bitcoin. Excellent, so now we have 362,700 and we need to get our hands on 37,300 more Bitcoin. To be conservative, I'm going to assume this is all they do in November with no additional ATM usage. Now, we have 1 month left to get our hands on 37,300 BTC. So with 362,700 BTC and an assumed trading price to close out November of $95,000 (to be conservative on our balance sheet calculations) that means the fair market value of our Bitcoin holdings would be $34.45B. As we've discussed, we're maintaining leverage of up to 25% of the FMV of our Bitcoin so that means we have total capacity for $8.614B in convertible debt. So let's see what we have left. We know we already had our existing $4,263,750,000 and now we know we added $3B to that. So now we have $7,263,750,000. That means we have capacity available entering December for another $1.35B in convertible debt. But current capacity doesn't mean that is where we are locked at. As we looked in our prior scenario, we need to estimate the price of Bitcoin at the end of the year to see where we should ideally be set up. So I'm assuming $120,000 at the end of the year. So if our current target is 400,000 BTC by end of year that means we are looking at a FMV of $48B and space for up to $12B if we would like by the end of the year (as long as it achieves our 400K BTC target. This actually gives us capacity for up to $4.73B if we need it. Given the immediate upsize of this last offering, I think $3B might be the next value of each rung of the ladder they are building ($3B per calendar year for maturity). So since we just did 2029 at 0% interest, I'm going to say they are gaining confidence in early conversions and believe the 2030's will convert as well. Because of this, we're looking at this next $3B offering (which will likely be 0% due to the proximity of the prior offering in maturity and market conditions) being placed in the 2030 slot. Not important to what we're doing here, just my thoughts. I'm going to assume they wait until after the NDQ100 snapshot date of 11/29 and we will get an announcement of this offering on 12/2 at the market close. So with a fresh start in December, MSTR now has $3B more in capital to deploy. So now let's assume Bitcoin is on the move, and we are looking at an average acquisition cost of $105k. This means we will be able to get ~28,500 Bitcoin from this offering. That will bring us up to 391,200 Bitcoin in the treasury. We're in the home stretch! We now are solving for the accumulation of the remaining 8,800 Bitcoin. So let's go back to our toolbox. The ATM is the prime candidate here and the easiest to execute on freely. After all, we are now closer to our 25% leverage target (still a bit below, but that's ok for now.) In December we have 21 trading days to work with. Let's assume we will close out December at a Bitcoin price of $120,000 (pretty cool huh? maybe even bearish) so we'll work with price building up and assume they will break this purchase into 2 announced buys. We will have one getting announced on 12/16 (Monday) showing their progress through 12/15 and the other on 12/31 for dramatic effect allowing everyone to hold their breath wondering how they finished the year. Let's do the first 2 weeks. During this period we have 10 trading days. I'm going to assume MSTR trades an average of $10B (it's been doing a fair amount more) per day and we are going to limit our ATM usage to being 2% of that average volume (yes, they can scale this up but let's see if they can make it being conservative). So this would mean that MSTR would be bringing in $200M per day in capital. So with 10 days during this period, we are looking at another $2.0B in capital to work with. Since we are in the first 2 weeks, this means we will be buying at an assumed price of let's say $110,000. This gives us 18,100 Bitcoin. Uh, wait a second. Didn't we only need 8,800 for the entire rest of the year? Yes, yes we did. Look at how simple that was. So I guess what this means is we aren't nearly aggressive enough. Nations may be coming after all and we need to be well in the lead! So let's get back to work and see what we can do! We now have 409,300 Bitcoin in our Treasury. At this point we might as well go for 430,000, right? This means we will need 20,700 additional by the end of the year. Let's work it out. I'm going to assume an average fill price of $115,000 as we run toward the end of the week, so I need to come up with $2.4B for this one. With 11 days and average volume of $10B per day, this means I will need ~$218.2M per day. Well that is only a minor bump up above our 2% floor ATM usage to 2.18% so I think we can swing it. So with out capital collected, we purchase our 20,700 Bitcoin and we spring on the world that we now have 430,000 Bitcoin at the end of the year. How many does that mean we collected this year? 240,850 Bitcoin. An increase of 127.3% YoY. Go peel your favorite bear off the floor and pat them on the back to let them know it will be ok. This is what growth looks like folks. So perhaps, just perhaps there is a value beyond the NAV of this type of growth company? I mean maybe. I'm also assuming they save their next convertible debt offering for close of business on January 2 in order to get 2025 started off with a bang! I'll have to work out the BTC/Share metrics and assumed shares associated later, but just know.....it's good. Keep your seatbelts fastened and your tray tables in their upright and locked positions. We're on the move!

@IntuitMachine twitter.com/lmsysorg/statu…

The problem with OpenAI's marginally better GPT-4o is that it doesn't blow away the competition; therefore, you have to compete in the marketplace. Competition consumes a lot of cycles that take your eye off the core objective. With marginally better, people look at the cost. Is OpenAI cheaper than the competition?

@bindureddy How do you explain this thread?

Key Evals For GPT-4o There are two ways to read these evals. Option 1 - Is this the mind-blowing new model that was supposed to be a huge leap forward from GPT-4. No! It's not In fact, it proves that LLMs are plateauing and that each extra point gained in MMLU is very hard to achieve. OpenAI's choice to name it GPT-4o says it all!! Option 2 - Is this one of the best models based on benchmarks? Their published MMLU and Human Eval look better than their current best model. I suspect Llama-3 400B can beat or match it, but it's not been released. So, technically, GPT-4o is the best model in the world. Until we hear from Google or Meta drops the 400B model.

@ItakGol How do you explain this thread?

GPT-4o < GPT-4 It might be more efficient, cheaper, faster, and so on. Nonetheless, I just tested it on a 980 super difficult samples dataset I had on reasoning, coding, math, etc. And it was hitting much less than GPT-4. GPT-4 answers correctly on around ~800 and GPT-4o on ~640. This is a 20% degradation. So again, multi-modalities are cool, latency is awesome, but it ain't smarter.

AI is getting scary reddit.com/r/midjourney/s…

@DrBitcoinMD Uh huh. And how do your gay friends feel about you retweeting homosexuality = pederasty, and the Westboro Baptist Church in a positive light? And that’s just scrolling back 2 weeks on your timeline.

do you see it yet, anon? my gay friends are mortified by the damage that's been done to decades of work on gay rights medical professionals speaking up was necessary to break down the COVID narrative it's up to LGB to make a stand against TQ+ to reach a peaceful resolution

@Sureshsinghn @PrestonPysh Well, you’d have to base it on the last time they changed the price, which I don’t know.

@_log_scale_ @PrestonPysh A 8.3% change in 24 hours?

TRY to USD

@PrestonPysh Just since I posted this, I went out for lunch and the item I normally order increased in price from 120 to 130 TRY.

@PrestonPysh Menus have blanks for prices because they have to change them so often. The hotelier where I’m staying makes regular trips to the city to exchange TRY for USD, EUR and gold. I tried to talk him into BTC, but the other 3 options seem very sound to him compared to TRY or BTC.

@Beautyon_ @ReadGabNews How stupid on a scale of 0 to those of you who fell for and spew Russian propaganda?

Altman needs to watch more SciFi, like "Demon Seed" and "Colossus: The Forbin Project". His little cache of arms will provide no protection from an AI with a credit card. Amazing how stupid these people are! @ReadGabNews

@Cory_Tucek I’m in a parallel universe now

Somewhere out there @_log_scale_ is typing up the thread of all threads to explain how Gary Gensler’s actions are all related to the US backing the dollar with Bitcoin.

@resistancemoney @matthew_pines 🧡

Gensler has been badly misread. His “anti-crypto” approach makes him closer to a Bitcoin Maximalist. He seems to despise some of the same things they do: pump-and-dump scam tokens, insider self-dealing, NYKNYC exchange paper BTC fraud, unregulated securities issuance, etc…

@KyleBobbyDunn21 @BitcoinDesigns @WaitIamMe This account never had 5K followers. @TheBitcoinSpot is the old @_log_scale_ account.

@WaitIamMe I’ve been all over, traveling since June. Germany now. Haven’t checked this account in a long time. Heya Matt!

@NZBitcoiners I’ll see what I can do, but I’m not optimistic.

@_log_scale_ The next 4 billion years.

@gvictor808 @JasonPLowery The US can “buy” Bitcoin by buying out—forcibly even—Grayscale, Coinbase, Microstrategy.

@JasonPLowery Game theory says that US may as well stockpile some BTC, right? But you can’t really tell POTUS to go buy BTC. “Outlawing” BTC would just make any such entity look weaker. What could one possibly advise the White House here? Good Luck!

@JasonPLowery 🔥 congratulations!