



caleb.bets 🍀
17.3K posts

@calebbets3
BA Sport Analysis | WNBA, NBA, NFL Primetime Writer | #BillsMafia | Owner of @NotifyPicks. Patreon ($15), Group Server ($25): https://t.co/G4G5FQ7xN3








Sam Merrill o11.5 Pts | FD -125, 1u 3.19.26 Play #3 | #LetEmKnow Not expecting Donovan here, who was a late add to injury report. Merrill averages 29 MPG without Mitchell, being over in 4/5 with 22+ minutes, a healthy 11.4 FGA, and 18.4% usage rate. Strus back only took Tyson's rotation. 14.9 Pts per 30 with Allen/DMitch/Hunter/Garland off, no dip with Harden on. Even if Donovan does play, the matchup is prestine. Bulls are a pace up spot and B5 in OPP 3PA. Merrill remains 2/3 with Mitchell/Harden and without Allen, only losing vs BOS (2/9). He also is 4/5 with Harden and >22min when facing a below average Spot Up defense, for 18.6 PPG.

Josh Giddey o17.5 RA | FD -114 3.19.26 Play #2 | #SeeRed Wagon. CLE inside funneling and expecting Jalen to suit up on 2nd leg after blown out in first. Minutes floor of 30 here, upwards of 38. 21.6 RA (8/9) with Smith at home and 30+ minutes, including 22 in a prior h2h. TD odds shot so just sticking with base here.










Ty Jerome o7.5 RA | MGM -115 3.18.26 Play #2 | #GrindCity Nuggets in their L10 games are ranking B5 in Pullup, Paint, and Spot Up PPG allowed, which in turn is leaving them also B5 against OPP APG overall. The most impressive stats logged vs DEN in this 10 game stretch has been POA RA: - Luka 21/gp - Shai 18/gp - Fox 12 / Castle 21 - Brunson 18 That accounts for 6 of the games, and are the only POAs to notch >30min vs DEN in this span. Jerome will sit at the 25min mark, where Watford/Edwards/VJ sat last game & all covered. Clayton Jr & Cam both off bench, so a lot of primary handling run.

@calebbets3 How many likes to get a free Friday on a Wednesday for the boys