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Iriafen o14.5 Pts | TS -115 7.14.26 Play #1 | #CONSun Washington is facing a Tempo defense that is 14th in DRTG, better only than Portland. Tempo are allowing a 36.2% Rim Finish rate, league-worst, and rank B3 vs Putbacks and Post/Hook. This is a bit better for Iriafen, where Putbacks/Post makes up 41% of her scoring. She is averaging 17.7 PPG with Citron/Austin and >26min already, with is 19.1 against non-T5 Frontcourt defenses and 24.5 PPG (2/2) when they are B5 vs Putbacks. Not a ton of pure Post Up/ Putback bigs, yet Shepard did just notch 20 off that success. Reese 11 Pts (13 FGA), Boston 18 Pts (11 FGA), Griner 18 Pts (11 FGA), Reese 15 Pts (19 FGA) are all good marks. Some nuclear rebound marks too as it double serves with putbacks (Shepard 15, 17, Reese 17, Boston 11, Griner 8). Iriafen had 16 Reb last time. Both Austin and Iriafen covered last game.

Olivia Miles o10.5 RA | Fanatics -120 7.13.26 Play #1 | #Lynx Phoenix's defense is ranked 12th in their L7 games and are tragic against all things jumpshots. 44% of opposing FGA have been from distance, while PHX ranks B5 against Pullup 2s, 3s, and CnS 2s, 3s. They have at least ranked 1st against Drives, purely fronting that action, which is pretty annoying for Olivia Miles as that is the main formula for all of her action. In the L7 games, Miles has an absolutely absurd 48% drive rate. While guards are still killing Phoenix, the option of Courtney Williams becomes real enticing as somehow with a 58% Pullup rate and just a 5% drive rate. Miles did maul Phoenix last meeting, just able to carve through this defense with veteran-levels of patience. Her RA side is most attractive for me, as PHX is still B5 in OPP RPG and notably B3 as an OREB unit -- easy DREB here. Recent Gaurds:
- Gray 13 RA (1 Reb)
- Kmitch 10 RA (no CC)
- Cloud 10 RA
- Allemand 17 RA | Conde 12

A’ja o25.5 Pts | -105 7.12.26 Play #3 | #ALLINLVA Let's just bet on the MVP man. Aces on 2nd leg of back-to-back here, Jackie played through an illness but LVA cruised so neither of these are big factors. These two faced once this season yet no A'ja, while they had a whole playoff series last season. Clark is playing 20-25 here. Even once we were deep in the series, White allowed A'ja to attack in isolation against Boston & Howard. She put up 27 shots in their final game, with 26 of those being within the arc. The Fever defense is really poor, having already surrendered 100+ Pts in 8 games this season -- tying a WNBA record. A'ja, Mabrey, Malonga are the only 3 players to have >30% usage this season with 25+ minutes and we have seen 9 players (in 17 games, one being Mabrey) notch 25% usage with 25+ minutes vs IND since June, with all 9 exceeding their season average.

Jessica Shepard o4.5 Ast | -150 7.12.26 Play #1 | #WingsUp The Sky team is allowing by far the most OPP FTA (25.6) per game in their L7 games. They have Cardoso on Shepard here with Stevens on Kuier. This leaves Shepard as a complete passing hub to keep the cut/inside action wide open and Cardoso out of the paint. Shepard is legitimately on a 36-40 rotation and this season is 6/7 with Paige/Arike/Fudd, >26min and against B5 OPP APG defenses for 7.4 APG.

A’ja o2.5 Ast | Builder -143 7.11.26 Play #2 | #ALLINLVA Played this officially with DAL ML but that settles tomorrow. Aces on 1st leg of back-to-back here and Jackie doubtful with illness, counting her as a full out. Phoenix without Mack is 1st in rim limitation and will fully trap A'ja, which was already applied last game where she notched 9 potentials after being 4/5 in the blowout loss before. PHX is ranking b3 vs CnS in tangent, so Loyd/Chelsea 3s become great correlation pieces though not running as of now. A'ja with Jackie off gets a near full assist boost per 36, would expect all the usage to run through Chelsea/Aja 2 game. A'ja near 4 Ast/36 with Chelsea on, Jackie off.