Catskill Crypto

🇺🇸 Yield Curve The inversion of the US 10Y-3M yield curve continues to deepen 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=yield h/t @SoberLook #markets #yieldcurve #yields #yield #bonds #treasuries #bondmarket #recession #recessions #investing

Bear market probability is at its highest level. EVER.

🇺🇸 Recession Since 1929, the S&P 500 max drawdown has tended to occur during the recession itself, and not in the 12 months prior 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=recession h/t @BofAML #markets #recession #recessions #sp500 $spx #spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities #investing

Signature wouldn’t open an account for Bitfinex or Tether, so they instead used a third party which they owned to open an account at Signature. Looks like more bank fraud and money laundering from Tether. Who knew?

Anyone who still has crypto on #Binance likes to play with Nitroglycerine on a unicycle at the edge of an active volcano during a magnitude 9 earthquake. Good luck

@GareyCozad @meealo1 @Bitfinexed Citadel is probably too insulated and they cover their regulatory bases well.

@meealo1 @Bitfinexed @CatskillCrypto Do you suppose Citadel is next ha ha ha

You have to ask yourself why would a single trader need over three hundred trading accounts, to trade on Binance? Because they're wash trading and painting the tape between their accounts. They can make the prices do whatever they want.

@meealo1 @Bitfinexed Way worse because they could see all the order flow, positions, stops, account balances and a lot more. This is text book fraud to the highest degree…

@Bitfinexed @CatskillCrypto So just like the stock market?

@Cryptking_1 CZ won’t comment on this. He’s named in the lawsuit and there’s little chance his lawyers would let him say anything. He’s going down big time… The DOJ and SEC haven’t even started with him yet either…

@CatskillCrypto Has CZ had a chance to comment or this is one side?

1/3 The bond market "Vix" remains near a record peak. Why?

1/4 FED'S BARKIN: THE CASE FOR RAISING RATES THIS WEEK PRETTY CLEAR. --- The market is now going the other way. The terminal rate (blue) (from FF futures) and the actual rate (orange) have converged for the first time this cycle. The market is signaling the Fed is done.

1/n This chart comes from the Fed H8 report. It is current through the latest data, March 8 ... two days before Silicon Valley Bank failed. What has been the largest drawdown of deposits since the financial crisis? The weeks BEFORE the bank failures of the last few weeks.

UPDATE: First Republic Bank $FRC desperately trying to find a buyer, with the help of the Fed and Treasury - no takers. **attempting a private placement cap raise; confirming that the $100B they’ve received in the past week wasn’t enough. **Down another -20% pre-market.

Bear Stearns' collapse in July 2007 triggered a chain of events that ultimately caused the Great Financial Crisis The similarities today after SVB's collapse are striking A thread 🧵

One of the most absurd aspects of the Silicon Valley bank failure is that its CEO was a director of the same body in charge of regulating it: the San Francisco Fed. I'll be introducing a bill to end this conflict of interest by banning big bank CEOs from serving on Fed boards.

On March 8, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields hit -1.07%, the most inverted yield curve since September 1981. 7 trading days later the spread narrowed to -0.42%, a 65 bps increase. This was the biggest 7-day steepening we've seen since the 2001 recession.

Global Container Freight Rates (cost of 40′ Containers) are now lower than they were in January 2020... Jan 17, 2020: $1,581 (pre-covid rate) Sep 10, 2021: $11,109 (peak rate) Mar 17, 2023: $1,463 (-87% from peak) Simply incredible.

A MAJOR player that understands CDS better than just about anyone. Let me translate, this is my opinion. @boazweinstein can correct/embellish in the reply. ---- A major deal is not using bond spreads, but rather Credit Default Spreads (CDS) for the MAC (Material Adverse Change) clause. It represent if new avenue in measuring what a MAC is. When asked if the CDS is easy to manipulate, his reply was: --- Um, how much firepower do you have ‘cause I’m guessing it’s less than the other side. --- My Translation, and my extra color: The Swiss Government and Swiss Central Bank have more money to force CDS spreads to tighten than you have to make CDS spreads widen. And when CDS narrows tonight (Asia) and tomorrow, the financial press will dutifully report this fact with the natural conclusion that it must mean "all is well" and "things have been solved." It is imperative to have a green day tomorrow to help regain confidence. Or, it is really hard to tell everyone that "all is ok" if risk markets continue to tank, starting with tomorrow.

US Banks borrowed over $150 billion from the Fed's discount window last week, blowing past the previous record during the 2008 financial crisis ($112 billion).

The 2-year Treasury yield has moved from 5.05% down to 3.81% over the last 7 trading days, which is the largest 7-day decline in yields (-124 bps) since October 19-28 in 1987 (Black Monday crash was on October 19).

The Fed Since 2020: 1. Mar 2020: Inflation won’t be a problem 2. Jan 2021: Inflation is “transitory” 3. Sept 2021: Interest rates won’t rise until 2024 4. Jan 2022: Recession is needed to lower inflation 5. Dec 2022: Disinflation has begun 6. Feb 2023: A “soft landing” is possible 7. Mar 2023: Banking system is “stable” Not a single statement was correct.