(((The Daily Shot)))

Read this month's first issue of The Daily Shot — free. Oil prices jump after US and Israel strike Iran thedailyshot.com/2026/03/02/oil…

🇺🇸 The rates markets are no longer pricing for cuts in 2026.

The US has the most capital-light equity market in the world. Goldman Sachs via @MikeZaccardi

🇺🇸 The Summary of Economic Projections points to improved growth prospects, little changes to unemployment rate, higher inflation, but no changes to the path of policy rate (two cuts in 2026).

Manufacturing production advanced year over year, but breadth has not been especially strong—about half of the manufacturing subindustries have contracted year over year. Source: @RenMacLLC

While sentiment has become a little softer on the US equity market over the last couple weeks, it's still well above past bottoms.

🇺🇸 Our measure of underlying #inflation is surging. thedailyshot.com/2026/03/18/fun…

While consumer spending represents 70% of the US economy, the portion that is truly cyclical is only about 16%. Source: @EPBResearch

Here is a very long-term look at US employment by sector. Source: Deutsche Bank

Consumers’ job insecurity has risen sharply from an extreme low when ChatGPT was released. Source: @OxfordEconomics @RealAlpineMacro

The year-to-date sector returns ominously mirror the price actions seen from mid-2007 to mid-2008. Source: BofA Global Research

How did stocks and oil trade over the weekend? @HyperliquidX

🛢️ Hedge funds have turned the most bullish on Brent crude since 2020.

Here's how global assets performed in the week ending March 13, 2026. #investing

🇺🇸 US high-frequency dashboard, composed of daily and weekly economic indicators (updated as of Mar. 13, 2026). #economy

🇺🇸 The job openings rate for professional and business services fell to the lowest level since April 2020, signaling headwind to hiring from AI.

🇺🇸 The number of rate cuts priced in for 2026 fell below one.

🇺🇸 The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now tracking Q1 GDP at 2.7%, up from 2.1% on March 6.

Rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have spiked. Source: Mizuho Securities

Betting markets show a rising probability of a recession in 2026.

Here’s global median inflation over the past eight centuries. Deutsche Bank via @MebFaber