تغريدة مثبتة
Two scenarios for how the Iran/Gulf crisis could impact Sudan: (1) The UAE curtails support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to focus on the crisis closer to home, conserve military and financial resources, offload a major source of reputational risk, and ease tensions with other Arab states. This would weaken the RSF, but not cause its collapse.
(2) The UAE doubles down, viewing defeat as unacceptable—another injury to their pride. With more funding and more freedom to act, UAE security services pour resources into Sudan (and maybe Ethiopia too), embracing a more aggressive foreign policy that makes them feel less dependent on the U.S. and other Western security guarantors.
I think the second scenario is more likely, or something in between. The UAE sees the RSF and other African clients as important sources of mercenary manpower, counterweights to ideological foes, and vehicles for economic diversification. The UAE project in Africa is both ideological and economic, focused on mineral extraction and speculative investments. Its investments include political relationships—a network of client states and non-state actors like the RSF. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, I don't think the UAE will walk away from those "investments" anytime soon.
All the Arab states are recalibrating their strategic thinking as a result of the war. The effects on Africa will be profound. It's just too soon to know exactly how.
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