Cheddarbiscuit

NEW: Kanye West officially breaks the record for largest stadium concert attendance in history, drawing 118,000 fans in Istanbul.

PGY is one of my highest-conviction holds and the market just handed me a better entry on it. Pagaya printed its fifth straight GAAP-profitable quarter on May 8, beat EPS by roughly 40 percent, raised the full-year guide, and the stock is down about 12 percent since. At $13.54 the upside math got more lopsided. TL;DR: AI credit underwriting platform, GAAP profitable five quarters running, net income up 213 percent year over year, a fresh Experian integration reaching 80M plus members, trading near 4x forward earnings while fintech peers sit around 10x. Consensus is a $26.90 mean across ten Strong Buy ratings. That is roughly a double, and the catalyst calendar between here and there is dense. Why I own it: The edge is the gap between a company compounding real GAAP earnings and a multiple priced like it is still pre-profit. Pagaya runs the AI decisioning layer underneath banks and lenders. They do not hold the credit, they price it and route it, which is why the model throws off cash (positive free cash flow, EBITDA margin around 23 percent) while the buy-now-pay-later cohort burns it. The network is the asset and it compounds: every new bank or originator that plugs in widens the data advantage that prices the next one. At a single-digit forward multiple you are paying almost nothing for that flywheel. The upside case: Q1 already confirmed the engine. Revenue $317.9M beat, GAAP net income $25M, adjusted EBITDA $94M up 18 percent, full-year net income guide raised to $110M to $160M, EPS $0.73 against a $0.48 to $0.52 estimate. Earnings accelerating, guide going up, and the multiple compressed anyway because a fifth of the float is short and the tape rotated out of high-beta fintech into AI semis and energy. The fundamentals moved up while the price moved down. That is the setup I want to be long into. What re-rates it from here: Experian Marketplace now routes Pagaya's AI underwriting to 80M plus members against a trillion-dollar-plus loan data set. Upstart ABS, Sezzle BNPL, and Global Lending auto are onboarding. Q1 pulled in $2.1B of fresh institutional funding. The next hard catalyst is the Q2 print in August, and a fifth of the float is short into an accelerating earnings story with a 4 day cover ratio. Any one of those clears, and a 4x multiple on a profitable compounder does not survive contact with it. The math: base case is 55 percent weight to roughly $25 in 12 months, the bull path is $40 on partner ramps stacking with a short unwind. Probability-weighted that is close to a double from $13.54, in line with the $26.90 Street mean and the $33 high. The risk I size for is funding tightening or growth rolling under 10 percent. Neither showed up in Q1. Earnings accelerated. Until one of them prints, the selloff is the discount, and I am holding the position into the upside. Posting the math, not a trade for anyone else.

The American dream of homeownership is under attack. President Trump is fighting to ensure homes are for PEOPLE, not corporations.