Daniel Pronk

The answer is provisions. Provisions for credit losses go directly against net income as a loss today. $MELI has 100%+ of all NPLs already provisioned (written off against earnings, and cash set aside to absorb all of them). This basically means that if the NPL goes truly bad, it's already written off, doesn't effect earnings, and is absorbed by the cash already set aside. So no, revenue and earnings are not inflated. If anything, you could argue they're under-reported, as they assume 100%+ of provisions will go bad.

I interpret this chart as 17% of MELI’s loans are 90 days past due, and 8% are 15-90 days past due. That’s 25% of loans unsettled by due date. Given MELI extends credit to buyers (often of 1P items) on its platform, sale of which goes straight to revenue, doesn’t this mean 25% of revenue is ‘fake’ and may not ever materialise? What measures do they take to ensure these loans are recovered? Or do they accept the loss? Is the record revenue growth a farce?

I took $MELI's annual reports back to 2021 and plotted their NPLs over time. You can see that $MELI's NPLs are continuing to improve, even as the loan portfolio explodes in size. To me this suggests that their underwriting is working well even as they aggressively grow.

Whatsapp is also beginning to be monetized, and ad performance data suggests $META is getting better and better on a per-user basis (conversions and ad ROI growing). META is attracting more of the total digital advertising $, and continuing to take share. I think this suggests that the ad engine is working very well. But I do understand. I also do genuinely wonder about the flood of AI content on social media, as I think it could start to deter users if all they see is AI generated content.

@PronkDaniel The numbers are good. The core product is getting worse. Instagram is the bulk of growth, which could continue. Facebook's contribution is becoming relatively flat, lower growth as the product deteriorates (mostly showing pages you don't follow at this point).

$META's P/OCF is 13.5 today. For perspective, this is the same P/OCF META was trading for on July 10, 2023. The share price was ~$294 at that time. This means that META's performance since then has been entirely driven by fundamentals growing, and not multiple expansion.

I'll say it again. Not all private equity is equal. Fundraising for infrastructure, distressed debt, and real estate, all grew strongly in 2025. $BN / $BAM

I do wonder if $CSU will be up to their neck in deals soon. Sentiment is driving others away from the software market entirely.

Private credit and equity are massive industries. They sound obscure, but they're essentially just lending money and/or investing in businesses that aren't publicly traded. I don't think every PE firm is at risk or operating irrationally. Yes, some are, but not all.

@stock_unlock now lets you see your buys and sells on stocks relative to their valuation scores. You can see I try to buy $AMZN when it's more reasonably valued. Looks like I could still do a little better, though!

@Utopus_ Structurally changing the economy isn't going to happen in one year. This is most likely a decade operation

@PronkDaniel Nothing has changed in the past year since leadership has changed. Inflation is still high, unemployment is still high, GDP is lagging, most Canadians are feeling the squeeze. We're in the same position we were a year ago

Want to share some thoughts on Canada, as I see so much negativity on here. 🇨🇦 First, I love Canada. It's an amazing country with incredible people. If you treat us with respect, you will receive it. Our economy has been going through significant stress and a transition period after 10 years of poor leadership blocking our potential. I'm cautiously optimistic that's changed and heading in the right direction. This change, like it or not, is being fueled by our largest ally and trading partner leveraging its integration within our economy to get what it wants out of us. Listen, you can debate if you agree with Trump or not. I don't care. What you have to realize is Canada has a massive one-customer concentration risk. In business, that's just simply not ideal. This customer concentration has been leveraged against our economy's best interests. Again, you can agree or disagree if you think Trump is doing the right thing. My question to you is: What happens if a radical left-wing U.S government comes to power, and used this same leverage to push Canada towards communism? Obviously that's a very low-risk event, but the point is, the leverage over our economy could be used by any future U.S administration (not Trump), in any way they please, at any time. As a Canadian, I think this is a huge risk, as it hampers our ability to be a self-guided and governed nation based on our own values. Previously, our integration with the U.S was only viewed as an asset (and it obviously still is). But the sheer reliance we have on their country has been leveraged to become a liability as well. I don't think it's a bad idea for us to diversify and explore getting our assets to new markets. I simply don't see the downside, or how anyone could disagree that this is a good idea. Reduce the customer concentration risk, diversify revenue streams. That's just good business. It will hurt us in the meantime, as we're seeing. But long-term, if we can succeed at reducing our customer concentration risk, get out of our own way, and get our critical assets that the world relies on to market, then we have huge potential ahead of us. I am cautiously optimistic that we're moving in this direction. Sometimes it takes things getting worse to wake people up from complacency, but I do think we're waking up. And by the way, I'm sure many Canadians would agree that we love the U.S and want to have a strong relationship with them. But I don't think having a strong and prosperous relationship with the U.S means we also can't diversify away from them. The two aren't mutually exclusive. I'm not willing to give up on Canada or our future potential yet.

@Mindset4Money_X Canada simply getting out of its own way and getting our resources to market would fix many of our problems. It just needs to happen

@PronkDaniel Good post and I completely agree, would like us to take a more active approach at exporting our raw materials

That is a risk and something that comes up to this day. There was an article written last year about Brookfield doing this. They do sell assets from one fund or entity to another, but they claim to use 3rd party valuations and test the valuations against similar assets etc. They sell from one fund to another when a fund is maturing, but they still like the asset, and want to put it into a new fund.

@PronkDaniel My biggest concern is always that they're doing sales between their subsidiaries and entities for artificial valuations. I read a paper from a decade ago suggesting they did this - any evidence otherwise?

$BN said it had a record year for monetizations (asset sales). I went back and found all the data for monetizations per year since 2019 (when they started reporting this metric). 2025 was indeed a record year - by far.

@hollertotide I've been looking into every bear case and trying to deeply understand it, then as objectively as I can, try to refute it, without falling into confirmation bias.

@PronkDaniel This bear case has always been assuring to me. They nearly always sell for more than they list on the balance sheet. Good find my friend!

@Beardedangel90 I'll send what I just wrote to someone else: These assets are actually in very high demand right now (just look at utilities and oil and gas companies in the stock market). I believe this is why BN's results have been a (huge) outlier in the industry.

@PronkDaniel Why do you believe theyre able to do this while nearly all other asset managers are at least rumored to be struggling in this area?

You're absolutely right, there is a risk someone is a "sucker" on the other end. But the rebuttal is that $BN's assets, as you said, are real assets. These assets are actually in very high demand right now (just look at utilities and oil and gas companies in the stock market). I believe this is why BN's results have been a (huge) outlier in the industry.

@PronkDaniel Well somebody could have been the sucker on the other end... Also $bn has more real assets that doesn't equate to exact same holdings by other PE players

By the way, this is a very, very good sign for $BN / $BAM. It goes directly against the headlines saying private equity is "stuck" holding onto underperforming assets.

@ASTARR_25 I just suffered a huge loss on Goeasy, so I am currently looking into every bear thesis against my stocks and trying to understand them fully. I'm in a period of intense research to make sure I never experience that again.

@PronkDaniel Have you been adding to your position with this pullback? $BN

@NewcomerInvest $BAM is at its highest ever dividend yield, and management has said they strongly believe the business will grow ~20% in 2026. They're raising record amounts of money and seeing strong demand. It sounds like it'll be a good year for them, despite the noise in the headlines.

Brookfield Asset Management [ $BAM ] has one of the best business models in the world and now trades at a discount Dividend compounding at 15%+ annually & overall business anticipated to double within 5 years Buyers with a long term mindset will be rewarded I am long $BAM