Tom

@Radsalty Interesting ill look into it

@formguidefoxes There’s an arguement to make that you could borrow the black scholes option pricing model to accurately value players. Fantasy podcasters seem to dismiss the option value of holding cash, especially since the decay in the magic number is essentially interest.

I’m struggling to word what I’m getting at but I think this is a reasonable attempt. I’m starting to wonder if we are interpreting the ‘priced at’ figures in #AFLFantasy incorrectly. I think the concepts of maintaining price and perceived value could be being conflated.

@DCCaterpillars Valid add-on points which I agree with. It’s difficult to allocate so many dollars to a premo when the market requires them to provide so much opposed to cheaper players way overperforming price. Less about the fact they need to score at their priced at figure season long. 👍🏻✅

This is bang on! 👏 The major problem with trading into guys priced at 120 at this stage is the missed opportunities. This is the period that has the wildest price swings. It's when we have the best mid-pricers and rooks, and premos drop in cash rapidly which makes them targets!

@AnnaWillis Sheezel point in case

@formguidefoxes I just look at standard deviation from the mean. The higher the players’ average standard deviation from the mean for that position is, the less you can afford to fade them. Especially when rookies are not being such low outliers to offset now the sub is gone.

@Keegs74 Correct

@formguidefoxes I wonder whether the way we should be thinking about “priced at” is: not so much a predictor of what that player needs to score at or what THEIR price movements will be; rather an indicator of what that money would buy elsewhere in the league at that point in time?

@gm_butcher Yeah I did a bit of dabbling in forecasting priced at with magic number relative to end of last year, its a good point

@formguidefoxes You are 100% correct - if the magic number rises throughout the year then the price you paid today falls. So if you forecast the magic number to rise then you’re also forecasting the priced at to fall. For a premo you could calculate priced at on the long run number

@ReegsSF 👍🏻

@formguidefoxes The magic number simply sets the market value for that week. But it’s all relative to the rest of the comp If Daicos is priced at a lower average later in the season because the magic number increased, then everyone else is priced at a lower average too

@Fantasy_H2H Yeah when I started to think about it recently it certained changed my fantasy world view. Too much focus is put on priced at for sure.

Spot on. The magic number inflation across the season is exactly why locking in that Round 1 'priced at' figure is a trap. If Naicos holds that $1.1M price tag into Rd 18 while only going at 118, he hasn't actually lost you any equity compared to the rest of the market because the MN naturally rose to meet him. People treat that starting 'priced at' average as a blood oath for the whole year, but the goalposts literally move every single week.

Another example is Bont averaged 111 last year and is $22K cheaper than his starting price but priced at 117. I think the magic number is saying he is priced at that figure to maintain price currently, but it doesn’t mean he needs to avg 117 for the szn to be worth that price.

Interesting to put into context how easy of an #AFLFantasy matchup ESS have been (2 games). Most AVG PTS against by year: 2025: RIC (1670) 2024: RIC (1652) 2023: NTH (1649) 2022: NTH (1624) ESS are giving up 1905 PTS a week. The 2nd easiest matchup is WBD (1656 PTS).

@Lefty113 😂

@formguidefoxes Early bye Interrupted preseason Struggled to adapt to his new teams game plan last year Hard pass

Surprised to see a 701K Dan Houston at only 2% owned a few weeks out from the season. 66 AVG coming off 3 years of 90+ before that. I think his usage rate will go up in his 2nd year at the Pies and his AVG will recover substantially. Is everyone 💤😴💤 on this pick? #AFLFantasy

@Slabotage 😁👍🏻

@formguidefoxes Can't see any viable reason why he'd improve.

@fantasynut_afl Its a good question, I have tried to remove outliers in the past but I’m coming around to the idea that it is to be expected that you might have one really influential or poor qtr in a game, probably too robotic to want players to score evenly across a match

How do you look at Sellwood's score? Q1: 4 Q2: 10 Q3: 40 Q4: 7 40 of his 61 points coming in 1 hot qtr. Do you look at his Q1,2,4 scoring and thus discount his overall score or do you instead look at it through the lens that he's capable of a big qtr as evidenced by Q3?

Preseason #AFLFantasy game reviews with CBA’s and player notes for all 18 games are all on my Fantasy Formguide IG page 🚀

@wembanyanas In Kennedy’s 5 games without Bont he scored below his season AVG and it was the 2nd worst 5 game stretch of his season. I don’t really think Treloar moves the needle much but if he played most of the year I agree he could regress Kennedy a few pts maybe.

@formguidefoxes Love Kennedy but kinda feel like his average is inflated by the great form he was in with Bont and Trel out. Even with only Bont back he was scoring in the 70s.

Finding the Fox Commentator unironically calling him Ned Flanders repeatedly very amusing so I made this #AFLFantasy

@FlemoLawson1975 I asked for opinions and you gave a valid one theres no issue at all. Passionate is an understatement, it can become a real cat fight 😂👍🏻

@formguidefoxes To be clear I'm not knocking you man, doing great work with all the intel which is appreciated by us all. We are all passionate about how we assess our relative decisions. Cheers 🍻

@AaronAFLFantasy Yes looking forward to seeing if theres any improved usage rate with Jaicos moving up the ground. Unfortunate you’ve declared his career over I think the jury is out. Yeah It’ll be a balance with how many double bye players we consider for classic 👍🏻

@formguidefoxes Will have to see the preseason games, cause Pies just can get him to go. Looks absolutely cooked to me. Doesn't he have a bye also?

@FlemoLawson1975 Yet people won’t rule out McKercher etc. if playing round 1. Disagree having some setback in preseason rules out a pick.

@formguidefoxes Interrupted pre-season mate. Simples