Mat

@bitinthat @formguidefoxes @Lemon_DT The assumptions will always be the tricky part! I’ll come back once I’ve done some work

@Radsalty @formguidefoxes @Lemon_DT I see yes, that is a cool approach. Very interested to see what you come up with. There are a fair few assumptions in there that I think might be tricky/subjective to calibrate (and the final outcome may be very sensitive to) but interested to see how it goes.

I’m struggling to word what I’m getting at but I think this is a reasonable attempt. I’m starting to wonder if we are interpreting the ‘priced at’ figures in #AFLFantasy incorrectly. I think the concepts of maintaining price and perceived value could be being conflated.

@bitinthat @formguidefoxes The start of the season is a high gamma period, incl MN decay. It’s by no means perfect, but aligns with some mental models people like @Lemon_DT have on buying value. I’m going to see if I can make this practical tonight with some Python and will share if you are interested. 3/3

@bitinthat @formguidefoxes Their true scoring output (S) is uncertain, their price (K) is known. You profit when S > K — when they score more than the capital locked in them is worth. So for example a cash cow is effectively a deep in the money call option with a high theta. 2/?

@AFLFantasy Definitely been vibe coding the app

Lockout has lifted! 🔓 Head to fantasy.afl.com.au or open the app to make your two trades ahead of round two. #AFLFantasy

Mitch Wishnowsky, look at this fucking punt

PERFECTION FROM WISHNOWSKY 🤌🏼🤌🏼🤌🏼

@grantcohn Morstead is bottom 5 of basically every meaningful punting stat

Yards per play by quarterback this season. Mac Jones: 5.42 Brock Purdy: 5.13 The offense is mediocre regardless of who's at quarterback. Special teams are elite, though.

@Nkpoli82Noah @MikeHurtads @nwagoner Letting the sack king get the highest pressure rate of the last 3 seasons is not solid. It means they performed worse than every other opponent in 41 games.

@Radsalty @MikeHurtads @nwagoner He didn't say amazing. He said solid. And it was a solid performance.

On the flip side: Browns pressured #49ers QB Brock Purdy on 58% of his drop backs, their highest pressure rate in a game in the past three seasons. It's only time Purdy has been pressured on more than half his drop backs. Myles Garrett accounted for six of those, though Browns only got Purdy for one sack. His mobility an important factor repeatedly today.

@MikeHurtads @nwagoner How was the oline solid when they allowed 58% pressure rate, the Browns highest rate in 3 seasons?

@nwagoner Purdy’s clock today was impeccable. Got the ball out or thrown away. Very timely today. OL solid in pass pro today

@FandomMenaceLs_ You know nothing about punting

Wishnowsky stays ass at punts

@TORNADOOFDOOM2 Stats say otherwise

GET MITCH MAKE-A-WISHNOWSKY OFF THE FUCKING TEAM BRUH. HE'S WORSE THAN SAM MARTIN.

@KevinMassare What? If he averaged 45.3 net every game, he’d be second in the league.

Wishnowsky not having a useful day either. The one KR is saving the day for a very poor performance

@throwthedamball Where’s Purdy?

How often QBs face Perfect Coverage and their EPA on those plays

@TheGangGreen @AhaanRungta

@AhaanRungta That ball is under thrown and offline lol yeah he got his hands on it but that’s not the play to kill this guy for.

Adonai Mitchell’s career in one play: beat the elite CB on the route, still doesn’t convert.

@bradypenn21 Reminds me of a young brock Purdy

Don’t know if there’s ever been film this good from a 22-23 year old QB. 2018 Mahomes is the only one that comes to mind. Please watch the entire 2:43 of this

@TheBillsGuys I think you owe Wishnowsky an apology

WTF did Mitch Wishnowsky do in his workout that made the Bills think … “yeah, cool, there’s a guy”.

@CarsonHayek @PayTheBillsPod Wishnowsky took this personally

Mitch Wishnowsky first three punts for the #Bills: Three punts, 110 yards (36.6 average) Need more than that. #BillsMafia @PayTheBillsPod

@Mikeabbey__ @ZbotTweets Shhh you look stupid, just pinned them inside the 5

@ZbotTweets Wishnowsky sucks he needs to sacrifice his plant leg for a key first down soon.

Two weeks in a row where field position has been a massive advantage for the opponent