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Write-up I gave my clients two weeks ago
I think this Eagles team is generational, and a terrible matchup for the Chiefs. This isn't the 49ers all over again, and let's not forget if Greenlaw doesn't go down they 49ers still win that game by 10. I believe the Eagles can beat the Chiefs going away in a few days.
While McCaffrey is a great RB, he's only 205 lbs, which is one of the reasons he fumbled on the opening drive after several carries. Saquon Barkley is every bit of 6' 230 and still runs a low 4.3. The Chiefs were good against the run this year in the regular season but have been porous the last 2 playoff games.
Hurts is locked in. You can see it in his eyes and you can recognize it in his swagger. He also had his most efficient year as a pro with 18 TD's this year and 5 picks and a 68% completion percentage He's quiet, calm, collected and making good decisions. He has 2 very good WR's in Brown and Smith, a solid third option with Dotson and probably the most underrated TE in the NFL with Dallas Goedert. I could see Goedert making a major impact on this game especially if the Chiefs truly sell out to stop the run. I also like Goedert in a few slip screen scenarios to counter Spagnoulo's blitz packages. Hurts can always run as well, he did score 15 TD's this year on the ground, and the Chiefs aren't strong enough up the middle to stop the Tush Push. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few unexpected QB Draws off left tackle.
The 49ers had 1 good player on their offensive line, Trent Williams, the rest were all liabilities and played like it. The Eagles have 4 All-Pros in Mailata, Jurgens, Johnson and Dickerson and depth behind them if anyone goes down. This Chiefs team also doesn't sack the quarterback like they usually do. Their last 2 Super Bowl teams had 55 and 57 sacks in the regular season, this team only had 39. Karlaftis has been extremely disruptive, but I don't see him accomplishing much against the much larger and arguably more talented Lane Johnson. I'm not concerned about Danna at all. Omenihu is playing this year, and he's a load, but Mailata is 6'8 380.
Rashee Rice wasn't a great matchup for Charvarius Ward, because of the speed and quickness differential. That's not the case with Darius Slay and Smith-Schuster and Hopkins. Slay can tussle with both of those guys all game and isn't going to get pushed around, neither will DeJean for that matter. Quinyon Mitchell can run with both Worthy and Brown and Cooper DeJean is also good enough in space to disrupt Kelce and Gray on short routes over the middle . The Eagles back-up corners Rodgers and Mattox, are both low 4.3 guys who aren't at risk of getting beat deep. Whereas AJ Brown has 20 lbs on McDuffie, and Smith is significantly faster than Jaylen Watson and Dotson will be matched up against Nazeeh Johnson. There is no L'Jarius Sneed this year to match-up with AJ like there was in 2022.
Zack Baun should have been the DPOY. He's the first player in the last 30 years to have 150, 5 and 5. He's great in coverage, he's smart, he's athletic enough and he rarely makes mistakes. I truly can't think of a worse matchup for Kelce outside of perhaps Fred Warner. Baun should be able to neutralize him. The Chiefs have good linebackers, Tranquill, Bolton and Chenal are certainly a top 3 unit in the NFL, but they haven't faced anyone like Saquon this year and I expect Barkley to get 8-10 chunk plays on the ground.
The Chiefs can't run. They literally can't. Kareem Hunt is their starting RB, who I think fumbles this weekend, Pacheco still isn't Healthy. The truth is the Chiefs best run option the last 2 games has been Mahomes on the roll-out to the right. Also, the Eagles don't give up anything on the ground. They gave up 9 TD's this year, barely 100 yards a game and I don't see the Chiefs being able to accomplish much if anything this weekend on the ground.
Situationally I could see Blankenship jumping a curl to Kelce for a pick. He's done that several times this year, and has proven to be extremely quick to react to the ball. CJ Gardner Johnson is also always lurking in the area and waiting for a mistake to be made. Mahomes should be under enough pressure this weekend to make many of them, especially if they get down.
Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis are heads and shoulders above anything the 49ers put out last year. Carter's basically proven to be unlockable and the 6'6 350 lb Jordan Davis makes Chris Jones look like a LB. The Chiefs are also starting a total no-name at left guard in Mike Caliendo. Brandon Graham is also returning from injury. They still have Bryce Huff, Milton Williams and Josh Sweat as well. Williams is 6'3 300 and quietly runs a low 4.6. The Chiefs will not be able to generate consistent pressure like they did against Purdy last year against an Eagles OL line that averages 6'6 330 across the board.
Nolan Smith is arguably the most athletic LB I've ever seen play. He's 6'3 245, probably has 5% body fat, ran a 4.39 at the combine, and plays like it on the field. You saw that last week against the Commanders when he toyed with Jayden Daniels and sacked him 3 times. He'll get a chance to actually start at LB this game with Brandon Graham now returning to the lineup to give Jawaan Taylor fits. Mahomes loves to roll-out to the right, and that will not be successful against Nolan Smith, he's simply too fast.
Both teams have very solid punters who can flip the field, although I could see Araiza outkicking his coverage and giving DeJean a chance to take one to the house. If the Eagles have a weakness, it's probably at kicker. Jake Elliott's been very inconsistent this year and I don't think they'll rely on him much if they can avoid it. Butker is obviously the best or 2nd best kicker in the NFL.
I'm legitimately having a hard time visualizing the Chiefs scoring more than 17 points considering the matchup.
The Super Bowl is a road game, and the Chiefs have given up 24-30 points several times on the road this season, including 27 to the Panthers. Whereas the Eagles actually have played better on the road than at home this year, that's usually a very positive sign. The Chiefs gave up 44% on 3rd down this year to opponents in the regular season, their worst in almost a decade. The last time they gave up over 40% they lost the Super Bowl by over 20. It looks like they've been bending, and bending and bending and this weekend I think they break.
The oddsmakers are with us, look at the following props: TOP - Eagles, Longest pass completion - Tied, Longest scoring drive - Eagles, Converting 4th down - Eagles 600%, Individual interception odds - 6 of the 7 listed are Eagles, Most sacks - Chiefs. This tells me the Chiefs defense will be on the field for a large part of the game and the Eagles should sustain a couple long, clock-eating TD drives.
And if they Chiefs get down, are they coming back and winning? The odds say No at -240.
The Eagles want it, bad. They're tired of hearing the Mahomes talk, the Sirianni talk, the 3 peat talk, the Taylor talk, the Kelce talk and they have the team to back it up.
Last but not least the NFL has a lot of heat on them right now. We've seen hundreds of thousands threaten to boycott watching the game because they think the Chiefs don't deserve to be there after calls like the Worthy catch that wasn't, the Allen first down they took back and the lack of holding calls on KC. What a better way to eliminate all that conversation and end the discussion about the refs and the league favoring KC and get the trust of the fans back than the Chiefs getting completely worked in the biggest game of the year.
I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles blew them out in similar fashion to the Bucs/Chiefs Super Bowl in 2020 that the Chiefs lost 31-9.
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