@aleabitoreddit @grok would you have been able to project that, how about their future guidance, could it be undervalied again ?
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Flow
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@mac2flow
Investing in stock & crypto markets - macro & micro - riding waves 🚀⚡️🔋📐🏍️🪁🦾🤖💻 Documenting my journey - Not a financial advisor
Paris انضم Eylül 2011
612 يتبع897 المتابعون
Back in January:
I napkin-math modeled Micron's earnings margin projections vs. their official projections:
My quote:
"If $MU guided for 68.0% gross margins Q2 2026, and we see a 100% NAND hike from 33-38% est.
That could bring gross margin projections over 73-75%."
Wall Street consensus was sitting right around 67% to 69%.
When $MU reported earnings?
Their 74.9% margin landed in that predicted 73-75%+.
This is how people price in information early, before the actual earnings.
So it's not a "Surprise Result" when even people like myself could estimate it/price it in, back in January.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Holy crap. This just happened: "Samsung increases NAND prices by 100%" - ETNews Estimates were 33-38% Q/Q growth - Trendforce This is an absolute shock. It's called the "Memory Supercycle" for a reason with $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix + $SNDK. In simpler terms: That extra 65% increase (from 35% to 100%) is pure, added high-margin profit. If $MU guided for 68.0% gross margins Q2 2026, and we see a 100% NAND hike from 33-38% est, that could bring gross margin projections over 73-75%+. This is a blowout.
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Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China.
But nobody is answering the question:
How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity?
My answer:
If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC.
Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked.
But two things:
1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant)
2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024.
So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24.
Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue:
-> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B.
And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M?
On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x?
Now the downside:
-> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash.
But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much?
-> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024).
-> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines.
-> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now?
Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith?
100%.
Is there potential more downside from panicking?
Yes.
But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.
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Flow أُعيد تغريده
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now offering hedge funds ways to short the $1.8 trillion private credit market.
They've assembled baskets of companies with exposure, alt managers, BDCs, and lenders tied to private credit. This isn't speculation. These are structured products designed to bet against an entire sector.
Private credit defaults hit a record 9.2% in late 2025. Blackstone's $82 billion flagship credit fund saw $6.5 billion in redemption requests in Q1. BlackRock had to cap withdrawals after requests hit 9.3% of its HPS fund. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater are also gating redemptions.
JPMorgan already started marking down software-related loans in private credit portfolios. When the banks that lend to these funds start cutting the value of the collateral, it forces deleveraging at the worst possible time.
US banks have lent nearly $300 billion to private credit providers. The exposure is not contained.
Goldman's own data shows hedge funds are "aggressively shorting" financial stocks, the most-sold sector of the year. Financials are down 11% on the S&P.
The same banks that helped build the private credit boom are now building the tools to bet against it.
If that sounds familiar, it should.
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Flow أُعيد تغريده
Did Morgan Stanley really just say they think $LMND is going to 10x their business?! 🤯
The stock is up 6% pre-market.
m.investing.com/news/analyst-r…
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Flow أُعيد تغريده
The Czech central bank became the first European central bank to buy Bitcoin.
Not a sovereign wealth fund, not a private institution but a central bank.
The same type of institution that told you Bitcoin was worthless, speculative, and dangerous is now putting it on its balance sheet.
This is what adoption looks like (and why gold went from a $15T asset to a $37T asset in 24 months)
Every central bank that buys Bitcoin makes it harder for the next one to ignore.
Game theory works in one direction.
Once your competitor holds a scarce asset, your cost of inaction goes up every day.
The dominoes are falling.
One balance sheet at a time.
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@thismacapital ca pt descendre encore bcp plus bas !!! mais y a de belles opportunités une fois cettecorrection finie
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that is quite a dumb theory … china is weeken buy mow access to fuel, invading taiwan now will require a lot of energy capabilities ! thet cant risk starting a war with a already weeken import of fuel that will be even weaker when the us close down singapour shipping in retailation !
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WHAT IF CHINA INVADES TAIWAN + Strait of Hormuz STAYS CLOSED🛑
Nobody is connecting these dots yet
Taiwan makes 90% of the world's most advanced chips. TSMC manufactures for EVERY major tech company on the planet. If those fabs go dark, this isn't a dip. This is a STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE.
Stocks that get DESTROYED 👇
Semiconductors. $TSM, $NVDA, $AMD, $AAPL, $QCOM, $AVGO, $ASML. Every single one depends on TSMC to make their chips. There is NO backup. Nvidia can't make GPUs. Apple can't make iPhones. AMD can't make processors. Full stop.
The AI boom DIES overnight. $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOG, $META. Every data center buildout, every model training run, every hyperscaler capex plan depends on chips that ONLY TSMC can produce at scale. Their entire growth thesis is GONE.
Consumer and shipping. $DELL, $HPQ, Sony all lose their chip supply. The Taiwan Strait carries 50% of global container shipping. $ZIM, $FDX, $UPS all get crushed by the blockade.
NOW here's where it gets interesting
Stocks that BENEFIT 👇
Defense. $LMT, $RTX, $NOC, $GD, $LHX, $PLTR. Spending goes VERTICAL overnight.
Domestic chips. $INTC becomes the most important company in America as the ONLY Western advanced fab. $GFS, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC all surge as we scramble to build domestic capacity.
Safe havens. $XOM, $CVX on the oil spike. $GLD, $SLV on the flight to safety. $AA on the aluminum supply chain chaos.
THE PART NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT
Taiwan doesn't just make chips for tech. They produce 35% of ALL chips globally. Cars. Medical devices. Military equipment. Appliances. A Taiwan invasion doesn't crash the stock market. It crashes the GLOBAL ECONOMY.
This is not a prediction. But if you're not thinking about this risk while the Strait of Hormuz is ALREADY shut down and semiconductors are ALREADY under pressure from helium shortages, you're not paying attention.
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Giant Bitcoin drone ad displayed over Lugano, Switzerland 🇨🇭
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@Micro2Macr0 And we are in a risk off moment …. Guess what happens when the printing starts …
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Flow أُعيد تغريده
En février, la France est devenue le premier importateur de LNG russe. Nos achats à la Russie dépassent le niveau de notre aide à l'Ukraine...
#NoComment
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Macrohard or Digital Optimus is a joint xAI-Tesla project, coming as part of Tesla’s investment agreement with xAI.
Grok is the master conductor/navigator with deep understanding of the world to direct digital Optimus, which is processing and actioning the past 5 secs of real-time computer screen video and keyboard/mouse actions. Grok is like a much more advanced and sophisticated version of turn-by-turn navigation software.
You can think of it as Digital Optimus AI being System 1 (instinctive part of the mind) and Grok being System 2. (thinking part of the mind).
This will run very competitively on the super low cost Tesla AI4 ($650) paired with relatively frugal use of the much more expensive xAI Nvidia hardware. And it will be the only real-time smart AI system. This is a big deal.
In principle, it is capable of emulating the function of entire companies. That is why the program is called MACROHARD, a funny reference to Microsoft.
No other company can yet do this.
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Kevin Warsh is already signaling what could be a major shift in Fed policy. While rising oil and a softer labor market have investors worried about inflation, he argues an AI-driven productivity boom from companies like $NVDA, $MSFT, $GOOGL and $AMZN could actually push prices lower.
If that view gains traction, it could reshape how the market thinks about growth and rates. A productivity wave powered by AI could allow the economy to expand faster while inflation cools, changing the framework investors have used since the post-pandemic cycle.
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‼️ PEA : les ETF synthétiques dans le viseur des pouvoirs publics Français
➡️ Ce qui pose question : ces ETF permettent d’investir indirectement hors d’Europe tout en profitant de l’avantage fiscal du PEA, alors que ce dispositif a initialement été conçu pour financer les entreprises françaises et européennes.
Des discussions seraient actuellement en cours autour de Bercy et du Sénat afin de déterminer si ce mécanisme ne détourne pas l’esprit du PEA.
Si les ETF synthétiques venaient à être interdits sur PEA, il ne serait par exemple plus possible d’investir sur des indices comme :
🗺️ MSCI World
🇺🇸 S&P 500 ou Nasdaq-100
🇮🇳 MSCI India
⏳ Pour l’instant, il ne s’agit que de discussions. Aucune décision officielle n’a été prise, mais connaissant nos dirigeants..
Mais si une telle mesure voyait le jour, ce serait selon moi une erreur. Cela porterait un nouveau coup aux particuliers qui cherchent à investir et à construire leur avenir financier. Une réforme de ce type pourrait même être contre-productive, avec des PEA potentiellement clôturés et une partie des investissements qui se reporteraient vers le CTO. Affaire à suivre.
➡️ Et vous, quelle serait votre réaction si les ETF synthétiques étaient supprimés du PEA ? 💬🤔
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Flow أُعيد تغريده
🇹🇭 Thailand officially implements 0% capital gains tax on Bitcoin & crypto.
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@aleabitoreddit @grok what is your thoughts checl TA, rsi, macd and other indicators
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Everyone is rushing to buy $LITE at a $54B MC after the $NVDA $2B deal.
Wait until they find out who the upstream bottlenecks and suppliers to Lumentum are.
Companies like $AXTI and possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility. This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others. $IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And $AXTI is a known $IQE supplier. The collaboration targets silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and package integration, which flows through the entire photonics supply chain.
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@Micro2Macr0 is it btc going up or the iran money scam going to zerooooooooo
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Oppenheimer just told you exactly what to buy.
$45 Billion drone market → $400 Billion in a decade.
And out of every drone company on the planet, analyst Timothy Horan named ONE preferred pick in the lower-skies segment:
$ONDS.
Let that sink in.
Not $RCAT. Not $JOBY. Not $ACHR. Not $AVAV. Not $KTOS.
$ONDS.
Here’s why this isn’t just hype:
The macro is undeniable:
• Global defense spending: $3 TRILLION. Up 50% in five years.
• U.S. House just authorized $900.6B in DoD funding for FY2026.
• Oppenheimer projects global defense budgets could DOUBLE in the next decade.
And drones are the fastest-growing slice of
ALL of it.
But here’s what the headline misses on $ONDS:
Most people see “drone company” and think hardware.
$ONDS isn’t a hardware play.
They’re the AI-enabled autonomous infrastructure layer.
Border protection. Aerial security.
Infrastructure monitoring. Iron Dome-style counter-UAS.
This is persistent, recurring, software-driven revenue sitting underneath every drone deployment that matters.
The numbers nobody’s paying attention to:
• 2026 revenue guidance: $170-180M
• Backlog: $65.3M - up 180% in 60 days
• Cash: $1.5B+
• Q4 revenue: 3x Q3
• 8 BUY ratings. 0 SELL.
The stock is up 925%+ in 12 months.
And Oppenheimer just called it their TOP PICK as the drone TAM goes from $45B to $400B.
That’s a 10X.
People keep asking if they missed it.
You haven’t missed it.
You’re watching a $170M revenue company get discovered at the START of a $400 Billion buildout.
The backlog is exploding. The guidance is rising.
The institutional coverage is beginning.
Note. This is not financial advice.
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