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@LondonMoneyFS Just wait until we start seeing the phrase “…since 2009” everywhere 👀
It’s coming
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Mark Tabrett
739 posts
Mark Tabrett
@mrtabrett
Founder @inginuiti - rethinking institutional equities with AI 🤖 • oil & gas analyst 🛢️ • Scottish northern district champ 🥊 • @LFC & @AberdeenFC 🔴
London, England انضم Aralık 2025
662 يتبع94 المتابعون
@mrtabrett Much appreciated, Mark. Thank you.
Probably high level is a good place for me to start anyway. I'll definitely have a read in my time off over Easter.
All the best.
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Strange how those crafty Vikings keep on finding more oil and gas in the same North Sea that Mr Miliband assures us is empty. exhausted and run dry....
Captain Scarlett🫡 ✝️🇬🇧🇬🇧@RobChar17748533
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@MarkFaulknerUK There’s also a paid Fitch article that seems to go into more detail if you can access it.
fitchratings.com/research/corpo…
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@MarkFaulknerUK This S&P article is the best free one I can find. It’s quite high level but raises the same issues I mention.
spglobal.com/energy/en/news…
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@MarkFaulknerUK Unfortunately not. I worked in oil & gas exploration in the UK and Norway so learned this through experience. If I come across an article I’ll share it here.
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@mrtabrett Very interesting.
Do you have any recommendations on books or articles that compare the UK and Norway in more detail in this area, please?
Thanks.
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Unemployment increased because interest rates jumped from 0% to 5%
AI is just a convenient excuse
Chief Nerd@TheChiefNerd
🚨 Marc Andreessen Says the AI Layoffs Hype is ‘100% Incorrect’ “Essentially every large company is overstaffed. We could debate how much but it's at least by 25% … And now they all have the silver bullet excuse — it's AI. I know this for a fact because I talk to them.”
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@mrtabrett @latimeralder @Lord_Talbot64 The UK might issue licenses but you face years of legal challenges. Everywhere else you have confidence to invest once you get permission
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UK and Norway have similar oil & gas industry tax rates (~78%)
Norway gives a 78% cash tax rebate to encourage exploration drilling so there’s a huge incentive with limited financial risk
UK offers £0 and actively blocks licences to drill 🤦🏻♂️
Captain Scarlett🫡 ✝️🇬🇧🇬🇧@RobChar17748533
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Mark Tabrett أُعيد تغريده
@MortgageMikeN2 Except I’m not a pessimist…I just interpret what the data is telling me 🙂 unfortunately in the UK it’s always bad
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@mrtabrett I’m normally the optimist one, we’ve swapped roles 🤗🤣
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For all of you that said house builders would continue to build and just take less profit 👇
Jay@JibbaJabb
🏠
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@MortgageMikeN2 To be fair they have £300M net cash so implies ~3 years of runway. They may not need to scrap buybacks if things recover.
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@MortgageMikeN2 Ok I thought you literally meant stopping! 😂 yes agree this looks bad….they’re burning ~£8M cash a month and have already scrapped dividends so will likely scrap share buybacks eventually too (or introduce scrip dividends). None of that is good for share prices.
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@MortgageMikeN2 Yes I agree. My point stands though - executives can’t stop all production to protect margins without investors dumping shares, and they need sufficient cash flow to survive. Do you think Shell completely stopped producing oil when prices fell 75% in 2014-16? Of course not.
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@mrtabrett This October will show substantially more reductions. More staff cutting incoming. The value of these house builders will continue to fall until there is sufficient incentive to build.
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@MortgageMikeN2 Trading update doesn't say how many homes built but Oct results showed down 4%. I have no idea what they're doing with staff.
But I do know that a housebuilder that doesn't build houses is not something investors will invest in. They will reduce output temporarily at best.
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@mrtabrett So they are building at previous levels? Not having to let staff go? If I’m a shareholder I’m very concerned about the share price and any dividends.
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@MortgageMikeN2 1. They haven't 👇
2. I assume they have existing land to build on
There are exactly 0 listed company boards that will allow executives to stop producing. You think shareholders would take a 50% profit/dividend cut to protect margins?
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@moving_charlie And operating profit per house is about half of what is was 3 years ago (if Persimmon is anything to go by)
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I don’t understand why anyone holding shares in any housebuilder couldn’t see the writing on the wall from the last few years.
Mathematical gravity, as I’ve always said.
Changing demographics, flatlining economy, below-replacement birth rate.
City A.M.@CityAM
Berkeley shares plummet as housebuilder halts landbuying bit.ly/412XIFo
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@bnoujaim @Jkylebass The post is really to help anybody interested. I’ve seen lots of investors make this mistake over the years - not just Kyle.
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@mrtabrett @Jkylebass He is clueless forget it. Zero understanding of geopolitics beyond whatever he sees through his own Lens. And macro well also
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Global markets are vastly underestimating the severity of what’s unfolding. It’s worth considering how the economies of Europe and Asia will cope with imminent shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. Brent crude futures seem to be pricing in a quick return to normalcy.
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Mark Tabrett أُعيد تغريده
@Jkylebass You misunderstand what this chart is saying. The oil futures curve is an indicator of how undersupplied the market is. The steeper the backwardation curve, the worse the undersupply. This is not a forecast of prices returning to normal.
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The UK is now competing with the rest of the world for physical oil deliveries. Tankers are being re-routed to buyers in countries willing to pay more for it. Exactly the same thing is happening with LNG. Our best option is to increase production from our own North Sea reserves.
Nick Delehanty 🇮🇪@Nick_Delehanty
Tankers carrying diesel to Europe have changed course. Several tankers carrying diesel from the US to Europe have changed course mid-Atlantic. The Aliai, Minerva Vaso and Grand Ace6 all loaded in the US and were initially bound for Europe, with destinations including Amsterdam and Gibraltar. Their routes have since shifted. The Grand Ace6 is now signaling Lomé in Togo, while the Minerva Vaso is listed “for orders,” indicating no fixed destination as traders wait for better pricing. The Aliai has also diverted southeast, away from its original European route. The Atlantic is now a “floating market. Europe diesel shortages will cause collapse of industry.
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