repulse

@Nstr_tj That's my goat

Trump is clearly in step 5 of his negotiating playbook, leaving the Iranians at the altar right when both sides were reportedly “inches away” from a deal in order to create maximum pressure. The problem is that both Iran and markets can see straight through it. Equities are barely down because nobody really believes he is willing to sustain maximum pressure indefinitely. Everyone understands what he is trying to do, but he has burned too much credibility for the threat to fully land. So instead of forcing a quick capitulation, he just turns the conflict into a slower war of attrition. Trump clearly sees equity prices as a resource he can spend. But if markets refuse to panic because they expect him to TACO and nobody wants to dump the panic low, then he never gets the market pain that would actually force him to bite the bullet and give Iran what it wants. At the same time, Iran is not backing down either because from their perspective this is existential. So you end up stuck in the worst possible middle: not enough credibility to force Iran to capitulate, not enough panic to force Trump to capitulate. That is where the molochian dynamic kicks in. This kind of half credible maximum pressure just traps both sides in a spiral of attrition where every missed off ramp makes the next one harder to take. The conflict keeps grinding forward until one side finally breaks, only after the damage is much worse and much harder to reverse than it needed to be. That is the cost of Trumpian policymaking when you get too cute with markets and start treating them as a metric to optimize instead of a signal to read. He tries to escape reality but all he is really doing is bottling up the pain until it comes back in a much uglier form.

oil is at $100 & Trump is hosting a memecoin convention its so over

@GonzoXBT $eth

Which one will reach $1000 first? $ZEC $TAO

april update long $gld, $strc, $agro, $mu, $fly, $tsla traded in & out of some tickers not much to do atm.

monthly update long $gld, $strc, $intc short $cvna, $jpm looking to add $tsla, $googl, $crwv and some non-US tickers

As for tradfi, I'm still in: 3350 $mtplf shares $unh shares + long dated call $hood call Interested in $tem. Otherwise, it's best to play defensive.

@ZaStocks Agreed! Also $fly

$RKLB SpaceX rumored IPO valuation: $2T Rocket Lab valuation: $38B Something tells me gap closes a bit before arguably the most anticipated IPO in history.

@dpycm $agro

i'm buying agricultural commods, does anyone have a case against? feels oddly straightforward and clear, yet the market can't be this slow to react? the ripple effects will eventually be felt

@crypto_condom Good stuff

Just wait until $AGRO announces doubling urea production 😉

@LucasSacerdote_ Agree with this thesis

$HYPE is being held up by an entirely different cohort of individuals separate from the primary cohort behind general cryptocurrencies making it less adverse to overall crypto price risk At it's current market cap size, in comparison to what it's aiming to be (10x BNB in terms of financial infrastructure and benefit to Defi) combined with the unwillingness to sell until $100+ by it's holders The room for growth and velocity at which growth is expected to occur is currently at an astounding rate The entire fundamental structure has been set up for massive success (NO VC's, AF Buybacks) The mathematical purity of Hyperliquid as a concept is something that can only be compared to Kobe Bryant in his prime at a current $35/coin vs $60 all time highs) we are essentially retarded if not risking the entire life stack for free money within a 2 year time period

For every pump on crude oil, Bessent orders a fake headline to push futures down $wti $uso should be at $150+ Not going to touch crude anymore for now Will express upcoming shortages through other instruments like natgas, fertilizer etc

Almost a year ago

$uso on the 2022 fractal?

@BrianXBT $5 please ser.

GET A FUCKING JOB MAN😭

$cvna 0

@Deshady_ @coinbase @binance @Lighter_xyz 655 usd fees 💀

NEW LIGHTER UPDATE COMING TOMORROW @COINBASE AND @BINANCE FIAT ON-RAMP COMING TO @LIGHTER_XYZ

@tomszczypka What are your picks for non-US centric bets?

#AMZN Amazon It looks like the beginning of a blood bath. Amazon should have no part of it. Most of the stocks with the steepest drops are just stocks missing earnings. Not the analysis earnings, but the earnings required to trade at their price levels. Amazon does not have the same growth requirement as the other mega techs do, as it's priced very modestly, which is abnormal for what was once an unstoppable "monopoly". I suspect it was due to Bezos stepping down. The market is unsure if the new guys are as good asset allocators as him (They are not, but the discount is too great) I do not own Amazon, as I think there are better risk reward oppurtunities in other parts of the world. However, for a USA-based portfolio, Amazon is the top mega-cap pick for 2026, with Google behind it